Predictions β†’ Usa Major League Soccer

Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 20:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 30 β€’ Allianz Field β€’ β›… 12.6Β°C, 22 km/h partly cloudy

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 2.47 β†’ 2.5 β–²1% 75% 33.5% 2.50 Betano 40.1% -6.6 pp
Double Chance 12 70% 70.7% 1.28 Bet365 75.4% -4.7 pp
BTTS Yes 84% 55.2% 1.44 William Hill 65.2% -10 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 85% 56.8% 1.55 Betano 62.2% -5.4 pp
Correct Score 2-1 61% 6.3% 10.25 Betano 7.5% -1.2 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 55% 26.4% 3.90 Betfair 24.6% +1.8 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.1% 1.52 Betano 61.4% -8.3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Minnesota United FC 1.45 – 1.56 St. Louis City Β· expected total 3.01

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Saturday night at Allianz Field brings a lopsided-looking table clash, but the numbers tell a stranger story. Minnesota United sit 14th on 30 points from 28 games, while St. Louis City are 2nd on 47 points from 27 β€” yet the home side's recent expected goals of 2.3 actually edge the visitors' 2.31 by a whisker, and the head-to-head record is pure Minnesota: 3-2, 3-0 and 4-1 wins at home, plus a 2-1 road victory in July 2025.

The model's headline call is a Home win at 33.5% probability, priced at 2.5, with the double chance at 70.7% and a Draw at 26.4%. Both teams to score lands at 55.2% (1.44), Over 2.5 goals at 56.8% (1.55), and corners Over 9.5 at 53.1% with an expected 10. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 6.3%, followed by 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 and 3-2.

Where's the value? Minnesota's form reads LLLLL and the injury list is brutal β€” Boxall, Gressel, Trapp, Harvey, Hlongwane and more, with Rodriguez and Stroud doubtful. St. Louis arrive WWWWD but carry an equally crowded absentee list including Burki, Lowen and Teuchert. The model's goal expectations (1.451 home, 1.5627 away) suggest a tight, high-event game rather than a home romp.

The honest caveat: a five-game losing run against a top-two side is a real warning, and the 33.5% home probability is far from dominant. Treat the Home tip as a value play, not a banker.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Minnesota United FC

Form (last 5)
LSeattle Sounders (A) 1–3 Β· 27/09/2026LLos Angeles Galaxy (H) 2–3 Β· 20/09/2026LSt. Louis City (A) 2–4 Β· 13/09/2026LFC Dallas (H) 1–2 Β· 10/09/2026LPortland Timbers (A) 4–5 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.87
xG against (recent avg)1.79
Elo strength rating1477
Players out13

St. Louis City

Form (last 5)
WNew York Red Bulls (A) 3–0 Β· 30/09/2026WToronto FC (H) 3–1 Β· 20/09/2026WColorado Rapids (A) 3–0 Β· 17/09/2026WMinnesota United FC (H) 4–2 Β· 13/09/2026DPortland Timbers (A) 2–2 Β· 10/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)2.31
xG against (recent avg)1.20
Elo strength rating1507
Players out20
Minnesota United FCSt. Louis City
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.80
1.30
Win streak (best this season)
4
4
xG for (recent avg)
1.87
2.31
xG against (recent avg)
1.79
1.20
Elo strength rating
1477
1507
Players out
13
20

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Minnesota United FC

Lost 5 in a row Winless 6
BTTS
6/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
0/6

St. Louis City

Won 4 in a row Unbeaten 10
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Major League Soccer

Minnesota United FC

Best BTTS rate (100%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

St. Louis City

Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Minnesota United FC at home Β· St. Louis City away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Minnesota United FC (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–6D–5L
W 2
D 6
L 5
Played13
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets4
Failed to score4

St. Louis City (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–5D–4L
W 5
D 5
L 4
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Minnesota United FC (home)St. Louis City (away)
W 2
D 6
L 5
W 5
D 5
L 4
Played
13
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.40
Clean sheets
4
2
Failed to score
4
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
6.3%
1–0
4.7%
2–0
4%
3–1
3.1%
3–2
2.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Minnesota United FC 6 wins Β· 0 draws Β· St. Louis City 1 win Β· avg 3.4 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 7

6
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
27 Jul 2025 St. Louis City 1–2 Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer
21 May 2025 Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis City US Open Cup
18 May 2025 Minnesota United FC 3–0 St. Louis City Major League Soccer
20 Oct 2024 Minnesota United FC 4–1 St. Louis City Major League Soccer
15 Sep 2024 St. Louis City 1–3 Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer
24 Sep 2023 Minnesota United FC 1–2 St. Louis City Major League Soccer
02 Apr 2023 St. Louis City 0–1 Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Minnesota United FC

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
27/09 Seattle Sounders Away 1–3 L
20/09 Los Angeles Galaxy Home 2–3 L
13/09 St. Louis City Away 2–4 L
10/09 FC Dallas Home 1–2 L
06/09 Portland Timbers Away 4–5 L

St. Louis City

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
30/09 New York Red Bulls Away 3–0 W
20/09 Toronto FC Home 3–1 W
17/09 Colorado Rapids Away 3–0 W
13/09 Minnesota United FC Home 4–2 W
10/09 Portland Timbers Away 2–2 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Major League Soccer

Minnesota United FC #14 Β· 30 pts β€”  St. Louis City #2 Β· 47 pts

Minnesota United FC

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–9D–12L
W 7
D 9
L 12
Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets5
Failed to score5
Yellow cards54
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.87
xG against (avg)1.79
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)3/1

St. Louis City

Wins–Draws–Losses13W–8D–6L
W 13
D 8
L 6
Played27
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets4
Failed to score4
Yellow cards57
Red cards2
xG for (avg)2.31
xG against (avg)1.20
Corners for (avg)5.10
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
Minnesota United FCSt. Louis City
W 7
D 9
L 12
W 13
D 8
L 6
Played
28
27
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
1.30
Clean sheets
5
4
Failed to score
5
4
Yellow cards
54
57
Red cards
1
2
xG for (avg)
1.87
2.31
xG against (avg)
1.79
1.20
Corners for (avg)
4.50
5.10
Penalties (scored/missed)
3/1
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Minnesota United FC

10
0-15
4
10
16-30
5
6
31-45
8
8
46-60
6
5
61-75
12
9
76-90
6
scored conceded

St. Louis City

5
0-15
5
2
16-30
8
4
31-45
10
8
46-60
9
7
61-75
6
11
76-90
9
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Minnesota United FC

  • ❌ M. Boxall β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ J. Gressel β€” Toe Injury
  • ❌ W. Trapp β€” Illness
  • ❌ C. Harvey β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ B. Hlongwane β€” Personal Reasons
  • ❌ J. Diaz β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ K. Yeboah β€” Inactive
  • ❌ N. Romero β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ N. Triantis β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ A. Jackson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ K. Chandler β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Pereyra β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Smir β€” International duty
  • ❓ J. Rodriguez (doubtful) β€” Contusion
  • ❓ P. Stroud (doubtful) β€” Illness

St. Louis City

  • ❌ F. Fall β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ E. Lowen β€” Personal Reasons
  • ❌ T. Ostrak β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ T. Pearce β€” Inactive
  • ❌ T. Totland β€” Injury
  • ❌ C. Teuchert β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Celio Pompeu β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Orozco β€” Concussion
  • ❌ S. Jeong β€” Injury
  • ❌ C. Glover β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Mbacke β€” Back Injury
  • ❌ C. Durkin β€” Red Card
  • ❌ R. Burki β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ S. Cordova β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ C. Wallem β€” Red Card
  • ❌ B. McSorley β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ K. Hiebert β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ P. Ault β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ A. Matan β€” Inactive
  • ❌ D. Downs β€” International duty

More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws