St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 • 00:30 UTC+3 • Round 29 • CITYPARK • 🌦 23.1°C, 9 km/h, 1.9mm showers

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

Double Chance — 1X

Model 75.2% · Market best price ≈ 61.7% · Edge +15.6 pp

Best odds 1.62 Betano 1.62Bet365 1.57BetVictor 1.57

Bet this pick →

¼ Kelly sizing: 8.8% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	77%	37.6%	2.82	Betano	35.1%	+2.5 pp
Double Chance	1X	74%	75.2%	1.62	Betano	59.6%	+15.6 pp
BTTS	Yes	85%	56.6%	1.44	William Hill	65.2%	-8.6 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	87%	60.7%	1.53	Betano	63.2%	-2.5 pp
Correct Score	2-1	63%	7.5%	11.00	Bet365	7.1%	+0.4 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.3 exp.)	Over 9.5	62%	53.7%	1.73	Bet365	53.6%	+0.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: St. Louis City 2.18 – 1.31 Vancouver Whitecaps · expected total 3.49

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

St. Louis City host Vancouver Whitecaps at CITYPARK in a Regular Season round 29 clash with real table weight behind it. The visitors sit top on 51 points from 28 games, while St. Louis are second on 47 points from 27 — a win for the home side tightens this race considerably.

The model leans toward the hosts. St. Louis arrive on a WWWWD run, and their recent expected goals read 2.31, matching Vancouver's 2.31, but the split lambdas favour the home attack at 2.1766 against 1.3134 for the Whitecaps. The standings say Vancouver, the underlying numbers say St. Louis — and the model's home win probability of 37.6 percent is priced at 2.82 by the bookmakers, which is where the value sits. The double chance 1X lands at 75.2 percent, a safer route into the same read.

Goals look likely. Over 2.5 carries a 60.7 percent probability at 1.53, and both teams to score is 56.6 percent at 1.44. The top correct-score lines are 2-1 at 9.56, 2-0 at 7.28 and 3-1 at 6.94, with the headline 2-1 pick at 7.5 percent. Corners are expected at 10.3, giving Over 9.5 a 53.7 percent chance.

The honest caveat: both squads are heavily depleted, with long injury lists on each side, and the head-to-head record is wild — 1-3, 3-2, 0-0, 1-4, 4-3 across the last five. That volatility is the risk to any single-result bet.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

St. Louis City

Form (last 5)

WNew York Red Bulls (A) 3–0 · 30/09/2026 WToronto FC (H) 3–1 · 20/09/2026WColorado Rapids (A) 3–0 · 17/09/2026WMinnesota United FC (H) 4–2 · 13/09/2026 DPortland Timbers (A) 2–2 · 10/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.80

Goals conceded (season avg)1.30

Win streak (best this season)4

xG for (recent avg)2.31

xG against (recent avg)1.20

Elo strength rating1507

Players out20

Vancouver Whitecaps

Form (last 5)

LChicago Fire (A) 1–3 · 07/10/2026 DDC United (H) 3–3 · 27/09/2026 WReal Salt Lake (A) 3–0 · 20/09/2026LCF Montreal (A) 1–2 · 16/09/2026LAustin (H) 1–2 · 13/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)2.20

Goals conceded (season avg)1.10

Win streak (best this season)4

xG for (recent avg)1.81

xG against (recent avg)0.96

Elo strength rating1581

Players out23

St. Louis CityVancouver Whitecaps

LChicago Fire (A) 1–3 · 07/10/2026 DDC United (H) 3–3 · 27/09/2026 WReal Salt Lake (A) 3–0 · 20/09/2026LCF Montreal (A) 1–2 · 16/09/2026LAustin (H) 1–2 · 13/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.80

2.20

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.30

1.10

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

2.31

1.81

xG against (recent avg)

1.20

0.96

Elo strength rating

1507

1581

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

St. Louis City

Won 4 in a row Unbeaten 10

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

6/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Vancouver Whitecaps

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

6/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Major League Soccer

St. Louis City

Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Vancouver Whitecaps

2nd best attack (2.20 goals/game) 2nd best defence (1.10 conceded/game) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%) 3rd best clean sheets (11)

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

St. Louis City at home · Vancouver Whitecaps away — the split that matters for this fixture.

St. Louis City (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–3D–2L

W 8

D 3

L 2

Played13

Goals scored (avg)2.20

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets2

Failed to score1

Vancouver Whitecaps (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–3D–3L

W 6

D 3

L 3

Played12

Goals scored (avg)2.10

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets4

Failed to score2

St. Louis City (home)Vancouver Whitecaps (away)

W 8

D 3

L 2

W 6

D 3

L 3

Played

Goals scored (avg)

2.20

2.10

Goals conceded (avg)

1.30

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1

7.5%

2–0

5.7%

3–1

5.4%

1–0

4.6%

3–0

4.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

St. Louis City 2 wins · 2 draws · Vancouver Whitecaps 4 wins · avg 3.5 goals · BTTS in 5 of 8

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
06 Sep 2026	Vancouver Whitecaps	1–3	St. Louis City	Major League Soccer
24 Aug 2025	Vancouver Whitecaps	3–2	St. Louis City	Major League Soccer
20 Apr 2025	St. Louis City	0–0	Vancouver Whitecaps	Major League Soccer
14 Jul 2024	St. Louis City	1–4	Vancouver Whitecaps	Major League Soccer
30 Jun 2024	Vancouver Whitecaps	4–3	St. Louis City	Major League Soccer
05 Oct 2023	Vancouver Whitecaps	3–0	St. Louis City	Major League Soccer
28 May 2023	St. Louis City	3–1	Vancouver Whitecaps	Major League Soccer
12 Feb 2023	Vancouver Whitecaps	0–0	St. Louis City	Friendlies Clubs

📈 Recent Form

St. Louis City

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
30/09	New York Red Bulls	Away	3–0	W
20/09	Toronto FC	Home	3–1	W
17/09	Colorado Rapids	Away	3–0	W
13/09	Minnesota United FC	Home	4–2	W
10/09	Portland Timbers	Away	2–2	D

Vancouver Whitecaps

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
07/10	Chicago Fire	Away	1–3	L
27/09	DC United	Home	3–3	D
20/09	Real Salt Lake	Away	3–0	W
16/09	CF Montreal	Away	1–2	L
13/09	Austin	Home	1–2	L

📊 Season Comparison — Major League Soccer

St. Louis City #2 · 47 pts — Vancouver Whitecaps #1 · 51 pts

St. Louis City

Wins–Draws–Losses13W–8D–6L

W 13

D 8

L 6

Played27

Goals scored (avg)1.80

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets4

Failed to score4

Yellow cards57

Red cards2

xG for (avg)2.31

xG against (avg)1.20

Corners for (avg)5.10

Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Vancouver Whitecaps

Wins–Draws–Losses15W–6D–7L

W 15

D 6

L 7

Played28

Goals scored (avg)2.20

Goals conceded (avg)1.10

Clean sheets11

Failed to score4

Yellow cards54

Red cards1

xG for (avg)1.81

xG against (avg)0.96

Corners for (avg)6.60

Penalties (scored/missed)7/1

St. Louis CityVancouver Whitecaps

W 13

D 8

L 6

W 15

D 6

L 7

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.80

2.20

Goals conceded (avg)

1.30

1.10

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

2.31

1.81

xG against (avg)

1.20

0.96

Corners for (avg)

5.10

6.60

Penalties (scored/missed)

2/0

7/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

St. Louis City

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Vancouver Whitecaps

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

St. Louis City

❌ F. Fall — Leg Injury
❌ E. Lowen — Personal Reasons
❌ T. Ostrak — Leg Injury
❌ T. Pearce — Inactive
❌ T. Totland — Injury
❌ C. Teuchert — Ankle Injury
❌ Celio Pompeu — Knee Injury
❌ J. Orozco — Concussion
❌ S. Jeong — Injury
❌ C. Glover — Injury
❌ M. Mbacke — Back Injury
❌ C. Durkin — Red Card
❌ R. Burki — Thigh Injury
❌ S. Cordova — Muscle Injury
❌ C. Wallem — Red Card
❌ B. McSorley — Ankle Injury
❌ K. Hiebert — Hip Injury
❌ P. Ault — Ankle Injury
❌ A. Matan — Inactive
❌ D. Downs — International duty

Vancouver Whitecaps

❌ S. Adekugbe — Achilles Tendon Injury
❌ R. Gauld — Knee Injury
❌ B. Halbouni — Knee Injury
❌ R. Veselinovic — Knee Injury
❌ E. Sabbi — Suspended
❌ S. Schonlau — Calf Injury
❌ C. Sabaly — Lacking Match Fitness
❌ T. Blackmon — Calf Injury
❌ A. Cubas — Muscle Injury
❌ R. Priso — Injury
❌ T. Muller — Illness
❌ O. Larraz — Hip Injury
❌ Y. Takaoka — Red Card
❌ S. Berhalter — Inactive
❌ B. Caicedo — Injury
❌ M. Gherasimencov — Illness
❌ B. White — Hamstring Injury
❌ J. Badwal — Concussion
❌ A. Cvetkovic — Inactive
❌ K. Poku — Muscle Injury
❌ E. Ocampo — Concussion
❌ Y. Diaby — International duty
❌ R. Elloumi — International duty
❓ K. G. Cabrera Nakamura (doubtful) — Injury

More: Major League Soccer predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws