Slavia Praha vs Arsenal
Next match: Wed, 04 Nov 2026 • 20:00 UTC+3 • League Stage - 4 • Fortuna Arena • 🌤 5.8°C, 9 km/h mostly clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Odds | Confidence | Probability | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | — | 82% | 52.5% | — | — |
| Double Chance | X2 | — | 74% | 75% | — | — |
| BTTS | No | — | 81% | 48.8% | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | — | 79% | 46.1% | — | — |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | — | 64% | 7.7% | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.8 exp.) | Under 9.5 | — | 62% | 53.5% | — | — |
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⚽ Model expected goals: Slavia Praha 1.04 – 1.71 Arsenal · expected total 2.75
🧠 Match Preview
Slavia Praha host Arsenal at the Fortuna Arena on matchday four of the Champions League league stage, and the stakes are lopsided. Slavia sit 30th with just 1 point from 3 games, while Arsenal are 8th on 6 points from 2 and looking to consolidate a top-eight position.
The model leans heavily on the away side. Arsenal's recent form reads WWWLW against Slavia's DDLWW, and the expected goals split is telling: 1.7083 for Arsenal against 1.043 for Slavia, with recent xG of 2.58 and 2.19 respectively. The headline tip is an Away win at 52.5 percent with confidence of 82, and the double chance X2 lands at 75 percent. The correct-score model favours 0-1 at 9.79, with 1-2 close behind at 9.74 and 0-2 at 9.33. Goals look scarce: Under 2.5 comes in at 46.1 percent, BTTS No at 48.8 percent, and corners Under 9.5 at 53.5 percent on an expected 8.8. The history supports the read — 0-3 and 0-4 wins for Arsenal in the last two meetings in Prague, plus a 1-1 in London.
Value likely hides in the low-scoring Arsenal win and the unders, where the model's probabilities are solid rather than spectacular. The caveat is real: Slavia's injury list is enormous, with sixteen names including Provod, Chory and Schranz, and Arsenal are missing Saliba, Timber and Zubimendi among six. Heavy rotation and a congested schedule could blunt the edge, so treat the 52.5 percent as a lean, not a lock.
The model leans heavily on the away side. Arsenal's recent form reads WWWLW against Slavia's DDLWW, and the expected goals split is telling: 1.7083 for Arsenal against 1.043 for Slavia, with recent xG of 2.58 and 2.19 respectively. The headline tip is an Away win at 52.5 percent with confidence of 82, and the double chance X2 lands at 75 percent. The correct-score model favours 0-1 at 9.79, with 1-2 close behind at 9.74 and 0-2 at 9.33. Goals look scarce: Under 2.5 comes in at 46.1 percent, BTTS No at 48.8 percent, and corners Under 9.5 at 53.5 percent on an expected 8.8. The history supports the read — 0-3 and 0-4 wins for Arsenal in the last two meetings in Prague, plus a 1-1 in London.
Value likely hides in the low-scoring Arsenal win and the unders, where the model's probabilities are solid rather than spectacular. The caveat is real: Slavia's injury list is enormous, with sixteen names including Provod, Chory and Schranz, and Arsenal are missing Saliba, Timber and Zubimendi among six. Heavy rotation and a congested schedule could blunt the edge, so treat the 52.5 percent as a lean, not a lock.
Updated 21 Oct 2026, 19:21 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Slavia Praha
Form (last 5)
DFenerbahçe (A) 2–2 · 20/10/2026DHradec Králové (H) 0–0 · 17/10/2026LSabah FA (A) 0–2 · 13/10/2026WZlin (A) 1–0 · 09/10/2026WPlzen (H) 2–1 · 20/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)2.30
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.72
xG against (recent avg)0.69
Elo strength rating1108
Players out16
Arsenal
Form (last 5)
WNottingham Forest (A) 1–0 · 18/10/2026WLille (H) 3–0 · 13/10/2026WLeeds (H) 2–1 · 10/10/2026LBrighton (A) 0–3 · 19/09/2026WIpswich (A) 4–2 · 15/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.47
xG against (recent avg)0.49
Elo strength rating1940
Players out6
Slavia PrahaArsenal
DFenerbahçe (A) 2–2 · 20/10/2026DHradec Králové (H) 0–0 · 17/10/2026LSabah FA (A) 0–2 · 13/10/2026WZlin (A) 1–0 · 09/10/2026WPlzen (H) 2–1 · 20/09/2026
WNottingham Forest (A) 1–0 · 18/10/2026WLille (H) 3–0 · 13/10/2026WLeeds (H) 2–1 · 10/10/2026LBrighton (A) 0–3 · 19/09/2026WIpswich (A) 4–2 · 15/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.30
0.00
Win streak (best this season)
0
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.72
1.47
xG against (recent avg)
0.69
0.49
Elo strength rating
1108
1940
Players out
16
6
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Slavia Praha
Winless 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6
Arsenal
Won 3 in a row
Unbeaten 3
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Slavia Praha at home · Arsenal away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Slavia Praha (home)
Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L
L 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)3.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Arsenal (away)
Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Slavia Praha (home)Arsenal (away)
L 1
W 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
3.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
0
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Arsenal 2 wins · 1 draw · Slavia Praha 0 wins · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 1 of 3
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov 2025 | Slavia Praha | 0–3 | Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
| 15 Apr 2021 | Slavia Praha | 0–4 | Arsenal | UEFA Europa League |
| 08 Apr 2021 | Arsenal | 1–1 | Slavia Praha | UEFA Europa League |
📈 Recent Form
Slavia Praha
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Fenerbahçe | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 17/10 | Hradec Králové | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 13/10 | Sabah FA | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 09/10 | Zlin | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Plzen | Home | 2–1 | W |
Arsenal
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Nottingham Forest | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 13/10 | Lille | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 10/10 | Leeds | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 19/09 | Brighton | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 15/09 | Ipswich | Away | 4–2 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Champions League
Slavia Praha #30 · 1 pts — Arsenal #8 · 6 pts
Slavia Praha
Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–2L
D 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards4
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.72
xG against (avg)0.69
Corners for (avg)6.80
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Arsenal
Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–0L
W 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards3
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.47
xG against (avg)0.49
Corners for (avg)3.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Slavia PrahaArsenal
D 1
L 2
W 2
Played
3
2
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.30
0.00
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
1
0
Yellow cards
4
3
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
1.72
1.47
xG against (avg)
0.69
0.49
Corners for (avg)
6.80
3.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Slavia Praha
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Arsenal
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Slavia Praha
- ❌ T. Holes — Health problems
- ❌ O. Kolar — Off the roster
- ❌ D. Moses — Injury
- ❌ A. N'Guessan — Injury
- ❌ I. Ogbu — Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ A. Ouanda — Injury
- ❌ L. Provod — Ankle Injury
- ❌ M. Suleiman — Health problems
- ❌ S. Chaloupek — Muscle Injury
- ❌ D. Jurasek — Thigh Injury
- ❌ P. Kacor — Shoulder Injury
- ❌ H. Kante — Off the roster
- ❌ M. Konecny — Red Card
- ❌ E. Pitak — Health problems
- ❌ I. Schranz — Health problems
- ❌ T. Chory — Coach's decision
Arsenal
- ❌ C. Mosquera — Muscle Injury
- ❌ W. Saliba — Back Injury
- ❌ J. Timber — Ankle Injury
- ❌ P. Hincapie — Ankle Injury
- ❌ C. Tzolis — Hamstring Injury
- ❌ M. Zubimendi — Ankle Injury
More: UEFA Champions League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws