Aston Villa vs Viking

Next match: Wed, 21 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • League Stage - 3 • Villa Park • ☁️ 9.9°C, 18 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	92%	81%	1.29	1xBet	82.6%	-1.6 pp
Double Chance	1X	73%	74.9%	1.07	BetVictor	95.4%	-20.5 pp
BTTS	Yes	81%	49.3%	1.70	Marathonbet	57%	-7.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	82%	50.2%	1.34	Betano	71.7%	-21.5 pp
Correct Score	1-0	64%	7.9%	13.00	Bet365	4%	+3.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.4 exp.)	Over 9.5	63%	54%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: Aston Villa 1.69 – 1.03 Viking · expected total 2.72

🧠 Match Preview

Aston Villa host Viking at Villa Park on Wednesday night in the third round of Champions League league-stage action, and the stakes are lopsided. Villa sit 3rd on 6 points from 2 games, while the visitors are 27th with just 1 point from their 2 outings. The model makes the home side a heavy 81% favourite, with a 92 confidence rating, and the bookmakers agree at 1.29. Double chance 1X lands at 74.9%.

What the model sees is a Villa side in strong form, WDWWW across their last five, against a Viking team that has won four of five but arrives off a defeat. The expected goals split is telling: Villa carry a home figure of 1.6874, Viking just 1.0347, though Viking's recent attacking output of 4.27 xG suggests they are not shy going forward. Villa's injury list is long, with nine names including Onana and Maatsen, while Viking are missing seven.

The headline tips are a home win at 1.29 and Over 2.5 goals at 50.2% for 1.34. Both Teams To Score is priced at 1.7 with a 49.3% model probability, which is roughly a coin flip and where the value question really sits. The correct-score model leans 1-0 at 9.96, ahead of 2-1 at 9.7 and 2-0 at 9.38. Corners Over 9.5 carries a 54% probability with an expected 10.4.

The honest caveat: 1.29 offers little margin, and with nine Villa absentees plus Viking's 4.27 recent xG, a clean home sheet is far from guaranteed.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Aston Villa

Form (last 5)

WFenerbahçe (H) 6–0 · 14/10/2026 DBrentford (H) 2–2 · 10/10/2026WSevilla (A) 3–1 · 02/10/2026WTottenham (A) 3–2 · 19/09/2026WCoventry (A) 3–1 · 16/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)4.50

Goals conceded (season avg)1.00

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)1.23

xG against (recent avg)1.20

Elo strength rating1405

Players out9

Viking

Form (last 5)

WBrann (A) 2–0 · 09/10/2026WMadla (A) 3–0 · 01/10/2026WLillestrom (H) 3–0 · 20/09/2026WKristiansund BK (H) 8–1 · 13/09/2026LVfB Stuttgart (A) 1–3 · 09/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)2.00

Goals conceded (season avg)2.00

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.16

xG against (recent avg)0.19

Elo strength rating1363

Players out7

Aston VillaViking

WFenerbahçe (H) 6–0 · 14/10/2026 DBrentford (H) 2–2 · 10/10/2026WSevilla (A) 3–1 · 02/10/2026WTottenham (A) 3–2 · 19/09/2026WCoventry (A) 3–1 · 16/09/2026

WBrann (A) 2–0 · 09/10/2026WMadla (A) 3–0 · 01/10/2026WLillestrom (H) 3–0 · 20/09/2026WKristiansund BK (H) 8–1 · 13/09/2026LVfB Stuttgart (A) 1–3 · 09/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

4.50

2.00

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.00

2.00

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.23

1.16

xG against (recent avg)

1.20

0.19

Elo strength rating

1405

1363

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Aston Villa

Unbeaten 5

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

6/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Viking

Won 4 in a row Unbeaten 4

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — UEFA Champions League

Aston Villa

Best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Viking

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 36 UEFA Champions League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Aston Villa at home · Viking away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Aston Villa (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L

W 1

Played1

Goals scored (avg)6.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.00

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Viking (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–1L

D 1

L 1

Played2

Goals scored (avg)1.50

Goals conceded (avg)2.50

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Aston Villa (home)Viking (away)

W 1

D 1

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

6.00

1.50

Goals conceded (avg)

0.00

2.50

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

7.9%

2–1

7.7%

2–0

7.4%

3–1

4.3%

3–0

4.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

📈 Recent Form

Aston Villa

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
14/10	Fenerbahçe	Home	6–0	W
10/10	Brentford	Home	2–2	D
02/10	Sevilla	Away	3–1	W
19/09	Tottenham	Away	3–2	W
16/09	Coventry	Away	3–1	W

Viking

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
09/10	Brann	Away	2–0	W
01/10	Madla	Away	3–0	W
20/09	Lillestrom	Home	3–0	W
13/09	Kristiansund BK	Home	8–1	W
09/09	VfB Stuttgart	Away	1–3	L

📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Champions League

Aston Villa #3 · 6 pts — Viking #27 · 1 pts

Aston Villa

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–0L

W 2

Played2

Goals scored (avg)4.50

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Yellow cards3

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.23

xG against (avg)1.20

Corners for (avg)4.80

Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Viking

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–1L

D 1

L 1

Played2

Goals scored (avg)2.00

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Yellow cards8

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.16

xG against (avg)0.19

Corners for (avg)6.20

Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Aston VillaViking

W 2

D 1

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

4.50

2.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.00

2.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.23

1.16

xG against (avg)

1.20

0.19

Corners for (avg)

4.80

6.20

Penalties (scored/missed)

1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Aston Villa

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Viking

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Aston Villa

❌ M. Cisse — Off the roster
❌ L. Goretzka — Knee Injury
❌ T. Harwood-Bellis — Off the roster
❌ B. Madjo — Ankle Injury
❌ J. Manzambi — Knee Injury
❌ A. Onana — Knee Injury
❌ G. Hemmings — Knee Injury
❌ I. Maatsen — Ankle Injury
❌ M. Ruggeri — Injury

Viking

❌ A. Baertelsen — Foot Injury
❌ V. Berisha — Thigh Injury
❌ S. Bjorshol — Knee Injury
❌ K. Frimpong — Off the roster
❌ M. Roseth — Knee Injury
❌ N. D'Agostino — Leg Injury
❌ A. Cosic — Injury

More: UEFA Champions League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws