Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund
Next match: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 β’ 19:00 UTC+3 β’ League Stage - 2 β’ Aspmyra Stadion β’ βοΈ 7.8Β°C, 19 km/h clear
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | 77% | 37.6% | 2.14 | 1xBet | 47.6% | -10 pp |
| Double Chance | 12 | 72% | 73.1% | 1.28 | 1xBet | 77.3% | -4.2 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 84% | 55% | 1.39 | Betano | 69% | -14 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85% | 57.4% | 1.42 | Betano | 68.6% | -11.2 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-2 | 59% | 5.1% | 9.75 | Betano | 5.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.8 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 66% | 56.7% | 1.95 | Betfair | 49.7% | +7 pp |
β½ Model expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 1.96 β 1.41 Borussia Dortmund Β· expected total 3.37
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β a big drop means the value window is closing.
π§ Match Preview
The model leans toward the away side, giving Dortmund a 37.6 percent win probability at odds of 2.14, with confidence rated at 77. Form backs that up: Dortmund arrive on DWWWW, Bodo/Glimt on WWLWL. The expected goals picture is tighter than the table suggests, with the hosts at 1.9631 and Dortmund at 1.4093, though recent attacking numbers read 3.04 for Bodo/Glimt and 2.18 for Dortmund. Both squads are badly stretched, with eight names listed for the home side and nine for Dortmund, including doubts over C. Chukwuemeka and J. Ryerson.
The headline tips are Double Chance 12 at 73.1 percent, Over 2.5 goals at 57.4 percent (odds 1.42) and BTTS Yes at 55 percent (odds 1.39). Corners offer an interesting angle, with an expected 11.8 and Over 9.5 landing at 56.7 percent. The value question sits with the outright result: 37.6 percent against 2.14 implies the bookmakers are not fully buying the model's edge, so the away win is where the numbers point. The correct-score pick is 1-2 at 5.1 percent, with 6.72 as the top scoreline.
The honest caveat is that this is a low-probability outright market and Bodo/Glimt's home record and 3.04 recent xG make an upset entirely live, so stake accordingly.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
Bodo/Glimt
Borussia Dortmund
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
Bodo/Glimt
Borussia Dortmund
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β UEFA Champions League
Bodo/Glimt
Borussia Dortmund
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 36 UEFA Champions League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
Bodo/Glimt at home Β· Borussia Dortmund away β the split that matters for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt (home)
Borussia Dortmund (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
Bodo/Glimt 0 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Borussia Dortmund 0 wins Β· avg 4 goals Β· BTTS in 1 of 1
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Dec 2025 | Borussia Dortmund | 2β2 | Bodo/Glimt | UEFA Champions League |
π Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Kristiansund BK | Home | 3β1 | W |
| 01/10 | Rana | Away | 6β2 | W |
| 20/09 | Brann | Away | 1β2 | L |
| 14/09 | Sandefjord | Home | 3β2 | W |
| 10/09 | Bayern MΓΌnchen | Away | 0β5 | L |
Borussia Dortmund
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Werder Bremen | Home | 2β2 | D |
| 19/09 | VfB Stuttgart | Away | 1β0 | W |
| 12/09 | SC Paderborn 07 | Home | 3β0 | W |
| 08/09 | Villarreal | Home | 3β2 | W |
| 05/09 | 1899 Hoffenheim | Away | 3β2 | W |
π Season Comparison β UEFA Champions League
Bodo/Glimt #36 Β· 0 pts β Borussia Dortmund #12 Β· 3 pts
Bodo/Glimt
Borussia Dortmund
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
Bodo/Glimt
Borussia Dortmund
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
Bodo/Glimt
- β H. Evjen β Knee Injury
- β J. Gundersen β Thigh Injury
- β A. Mikkelsen β Groin Injury
- β M. Riisnaes β Knee Injury
- β I. Sjong β Injury
- β O. L. Bjortuft β Red Card
- β J. Kitolano β Knee Injury
- β M. Bro Hansen β Injury
Borussia Dortmund
- β R. Bensebaini β Red Card
- β E. Can β Knee Injury
- β M. Kaba β Injury
- β G. Konstantelias β Knee Injury
- β J. Lerma β Muscle Injury
- β F. Mane β Muscle Injury
- β N. Schlotterbeck β Red Card
- β C. Chukwuemeka (doubtful) β Muscle Injury
- β J. Ryerson (doubtful) β Ribs Injury
More: UEFA Champions League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws