Predictions β†’ World UEFA Champions League

FC Porto vs Napoli

Next match: Wed, 04 Nov 2026 β€’ 20:00 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 4 β€’ 🌫 13.2Β°C, 5 km/h fog

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipOddsConfidenceProbabilityMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home β€”77% 37.9% β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X β€”71% 71% β€” β€”
BTTS No β€”82% 50.8% β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 β€”84% 54.5% β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 β€”70% 11.1% β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.2 exp.) Under 9.5 β€”61% 52.7% β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: FC Porto 1.19 – 0.89 Napoli Β· expected total 2.07

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

FC Porto

Form (last 5)
LPSV Eindhoven (H) 0–1 Β· 20/10/2026LReal Betis (A) 2–3 Β· 14/10/2026WMaritimo (A) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026WDeportivo La Coruna (A) 3–1 Β· 02/10/2026WBenfica (H) 3–1 Β· 20/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)2.50
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.66
xG against (recent avg)1.11
Elo strength rating1310
Players out9

Napoli

Form (last 5)
WBodo/Glimt (H) 4–3 Β· 20/10/2026LVenezia (A) 0–1 Β· 17/10/2026LVillarreal (A) 1–3 Β· 13/10/2026WFrosinone (H) 3–0 Β· 10/10/2026DFiorentina (A) 1–1 Β· 20/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.50
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.82
xG against (recent avg)1.71
Elo strength rating1208
Players out10
FC PortoNapoli
LPSV Eindhoven (H) 0–1 Β· 20/10/2026LReal Betis (A) 2–3 Β· 14/10/2026WMaritimo (A) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026WDeportivo La Coruna (A) 3–1 Β· 02/10/2026WBenfica (H) 3–1 Β· 20/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.00
0.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.50
2.00
Win streak (best this season)
0
0
xG for (recent avg)
1.66
1.82
xG against (recent avg)
1.11
1.71
Elo strength rating
1310
1208
Players out
9
10

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

FC Porto

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Napoli

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” UEFA Champions League

FC Porto

Best BTTS rate (83%)

Napoli

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 36 UEFA Champions League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

FC Porto at home Β· Napoli away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

FC Porto (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L
L 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1

Napoli (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L
L 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)3.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
FC Porto (home)Napoli (away)
L 1
L 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
3.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
1
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
11.1%
2–0
7.2%
2–1
6.4%
3–0
2.9%
3–1
2.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

FC Porto

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/10 PSV Eindhoven Home 0–1 L
14/10 Real Betis Away 2–3 L
10/10 Maritimo Away 2–1 W
02/10 Deportivo La Coruna Away 3–1 W
20/09 Benfica Home 3–1 W

Napoli

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/10 Bodo/Glimt Home 4–3 W
17/10 Venezia Away 0–1 L
13/10 Villarreal Away 1–3 L
10/10 Frosinone Home 3–0 W
20/09 Fiorentina Away 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Champions League

FC Porto #33 Β· 0 pts β€”  Napoli #22 Β· 3 pts

FC Porto

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–3L
L 3
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.50
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards5
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.66
xG against (avg)1.11
Corners for (avg)4.30
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Napoli

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–2L
W 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards5
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.82
xG against (avg)1.71
Corners for (avg)5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
FC PortoNapoli
L 3
W 1
L 2
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
0.50
Goals conceded (avg)
2.50
2.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
1
1
Yellow cards
5
5
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.66
1.82
xG against (avg)
1.11
1.71
Corners for (avg)
4.30
5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

FC Porto

0-15
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded

Napoli

0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

FC Porto

  • ❌ J. Bednarek β€” Red Card
  • ❌ V. Froholdt β€” Concussion
  • ❌ Gabriel Mec β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ O. Pietuszewski β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ D. Prpic β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ Samu β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ V. Sousa β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ Zaidu β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ William Gomes β€” Ankle Injury

Napoli

  • ❌ F. Anguissa β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Buongiorno β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Giovane β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ L. Marianucci β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. McTominay β€” Heart Problems
  • ❌ Alisson Santos β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ C. Favasuli β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ M. Olivera β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ A. Vergara β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ David Neres β€” Thigh Injury

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