Predictions β†’ World UEFA Champions League

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz

Next match: Wed, 21 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 3 β€’ β˜€οΈ 25.5Β°C, 13 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 92% 81.8% 1.31 1xBet 78.6% +3.2 pp
Double Chance 1X 79% 82.2% 1.08 Bet365 91.6% -9.4 pp
BTTS Yes 83% 53.1% 1.72 Betano 56.1% -3 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 84% 55% 1.37 Betano 71.3% -16.3 pp
Correct Score 2-0 65% 8.6% 8.75 Betano 5.9% +2.7 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 53.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Sporting CP 2.08 – 0.92 Lask Linz Β· expected total 3.01

🧠 Match Preview

Sporting CP host Lask Linz in Champions League League Stage round three, and the table already tells a story of opposites: Sporting sit 6th on 6 points from 2 games, while Lask are 33rd with 0 points from 2. For the Portuguese side this is a fixture to bank three points and protect their position; for the Austrians it is damage limitation.

The model leans heavily on form and output. Sporting arrive with WDDWW, Lask with LLWDL. Expected goals point the same way: 2.0838 for the hosts against 0.9244 for the visitors, with recent xG at 2.18 and 2.14 respectively. Sporting's injury list is long β€” I. Ba, N. Santos, J. Simoes, M. Zekri, Z. Debast and R. Zalazar β€” while Lask are without G. Bello, K. Cheikne, R. Harakate, A. Smakaj and M. Usor.

The headline tip is a home win at 81.8% probability, confidence 92, priced at 1.31. Double chance 1X sits at 82.2%. Both teams to score is favoured at 53.1% (odds 1.72), and Over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.37). The most likely correct score is 2-0 at 8.6%, with 2-1, 1-0, 3-0 and 3-1 close behind. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 53.1%, expected 9.

Value is thin on the outright, so the interest lies in goals markets and the 2-0/2-1 scorelines. The honest caveat: history bites β€” Lask won 3-0 in 2019 and 4-1 in 2020, so this is not a fixture to treat as a formality.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 05:07 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Sporting CP

Form (last 5)
WSC Braga (A) 3–1 Β· 09/10/2026DArouca (H) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026DFamalicao (A) 1–1 Β· 13/09/2026WGalatasaray (H) 3–1 Β· 09/09/2026WNacional (H) 2–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)3.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.53
xG against (recent avg)0.39
Elo strength rating1796
Players out6

Lask Linz

Form (last 5)
LLiverpool (H) 3–6 Β· 14/10/2026LRapid Vienna (H) 0–2 Β· 11/10/2026WFirst Vienna (H) 2–1 Β· 02/10/2026DTSV Hartberg (A) 3–3 Β· 20/09/2026LSturm Graz (A) 1–2 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)2.80
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.77
xG against (recent avg)0.74
Elo strength rating1361
Players out5
Sporting CPLask Linz
WSC Braga (A) 3–1 Β· 09/10/2026DArouca (H) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026DFamalicao (A) 1–1 Β· 13/09/2026WGalatasaray (H) 3–1 Β· 09/09/2026WNacional (H) 2–0 Β· 05/09/2026
LLiverpool (H) 3–6 Β· 14/10/2026LRapid Vienna (H) 0–2 Β· 11/10/2026WFirst Vienna (H) 2–1 Β· 02/10/2026DTSV Hartberg (A) 3–3 Β· 20/09/2026LSturm Graz (A) 1–2 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
3.00
2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
2.80
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.53
1.77
xG against (recent avg)
0.39
0.74
Elo strength rating
1796
1361
Players out
6
5

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Sporting CP

Unbeaten 10
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Lask Linz

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Sporting CP at home Β· Lask Linz away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Sporting CP (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)3.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Lask Linz (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–2L
L 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Sporting CP (home)Lask Linz (away)
W 1
L 2
Played
1
2
Goals scored (avg)
3.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
2.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
8.6%
2–1
8%
1–0
7.5%
3–0
6%
3–1
5.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Lask Linz 2 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Sporting CP 1 win Β· avg 3.7 goals Β· BTTS in 2 of 3

2
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
01 Oct 2020 Sporting CP 1–4 Lask Linz UEFA Europa League
12 Dec 2019 Lask Linz 3–0 Sporting CP UEFA Europa League
03 Oct 2019 Sporting CP 2–1 Lask Linz UEFA Europa League

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Sporting CP

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 SC Braga Away 3–1 W
19/09 Arouca Home 2–2 D
13/09 Famalicao Away 1–1 D
09/09 Galatasaray Home 3–1 W
05/09 Nacional Home 2–0 W

Lask Linz

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
14/10 Liverpool Home 3–6 L
11/10 Rapid Vienna Home 0–2 L
02/10 First Vienna Home 2–1 W
20/09 TSV Hartberg Away 3–3 D
13/09 Sturm Graz Away 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Champions League

Sporting CP #6 Β· 6 pts β€”  Lask Linz #33 Β· 0 pts

Sporting CP

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–0L
W 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)3.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards2
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.53
xG against (avg)0.39
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Lask Linz

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–2L
L 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Yellow cards6
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.77
xG against (avg)0.74
Corners for (avg)6.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1
Sporting CPLask Linz
W 2
L 2
Played
2
2
Goals scored (avg)
3.00
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
2.80
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
2
Yellow cards
2
6
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.53
1.77
xG against (avg)
0.39
0.74
Corners for (avg)
4.50
6.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Sporting CP

0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded

Lask Linz

0-15
5
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Sporting CP

  • ❌ I. Ba β€” Knock
  • ❌ N. Santos β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Simoes β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ M. Zekri β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Z. Debast β€” Injury
  • ❌ R. Zalazar β€” Injury

Lask Linz

  • ❌ G. Bello β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ K. Cheikne β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ R. Harakate β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Smakaj β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ M. Usor β€” Shoulder Injury

More: UEFA Champions League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws