RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
Next match: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 β’ 19:00 UTC+3 β’ League Stage - 2 β’ Leipzig Red Bull Arena β’ βοΈ 11.4Β°C, 11 km/h overcast
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.81 β 1.65 βΌ9% | 85% | 58.9% | 1.65 | 1xBet | 62.4% | -3.5 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 69% | 69% | 1.23 | 1xBet | 80.8% | -11.8 pp |
| BTTS | No | 80% | 48% | 3.30 | Betfair | 29% | +19 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 50.6% | 1.31 | Pinnacle | 75.3% | -24.7 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 65% | 8.7% | 17.00 | Bet365 | 3.3% | +5.4 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.2 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 65% | 55.5% | 1.73 | Betfair | 55.1% | +0.4 pp |
β½ Model expected goals: RB Leipzig 1.34 β 1.06 PSV Eindhoven Β· expected total 2.41
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β a big drop means the value window is closing.
π§ Match Preview
Form is mixed: Leipzig have gone WLWLL in their last five, PSV WLWDW. The expected goals picture is tighter than the odds suggest, with Leipzig at 1.3446 and PSV at 1.0616, though recent attacking output reads 2.52 for the hosts and 2.41 for the visitors. Injuries bite both squads: Leipzig are without C. Baumgartner, A. Kone, R. Reitz, L. Zingerle, M. Guiu and A. Ouedraogo, while PSV have a long absentee list including M. Bro Hansen, S. Lammers, Mauro Junior, S. Ouaissa, A. Plea, J. Schouten, K. Sildillia, A. Nagalo, R. Pepi and P. Wanner.
The headline tip is a home win at 1.65 against a 58.9 percent model probability, and the 1X double chance at 69 percent is the safer route. Over 2.5 goals is rated 50.6 percent at 1.31, and over 9.5 corners carries 55.5 percent with an expected 11.2. The value may hide in BTTS No at 48 percent and odds of 3.3, while the top correct scores are 1-0 at 10.84, 2-1 at 8.66 and 2-0 at 8.15.
The honest caveat: Leipzig's 0-point start and their WLWLL run mean the 58.9 percent home probability is not a comfortable cushion, and PSV's away form plus those recent xG numbers of 2.41 make the 1.65 price less generous than it first appears.
Updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
RB Leipzig
PSV Eindhoven
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
RB Leipzig
PSV Eindhoven
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β UEFA Champions League
RB Leipzig
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
PSV Eindhoven
Rank among 36 UEFA Champions League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
RB Leipzig at home Β· PSV Eindhoven away β the split that matters for this fixture.
RB Leipzig (home)
PSV Eindhoven (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
π Recent Form
RB Leipzig
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Home | 6β0 | W |
| 20/09 | Bayer Leverkusen | Away | 0β2 | L |
| 13/09 | Hamburger SV | Home | 5β0 | W |
| 10/09 | Como | Away | 1β4 | L |
| 05/09 | Werder Bremen | Away | 1β3 | L |
PSV Eindhoven
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Heerenveen | Home | 2β0 | W |
| 20/09 | Twente | Away | 2β3 | L |
| 13/09 | Sparta Rotterdam | Home | 4β1 | W |
| 10/09 | Shakhtar Donetsk | Home | 1β1 | D |
| 05/09 | Ajax | Away | 3β1 | W |
π Season Comparison β UEFA Champions League
RB Leipzig #32 Β· 0 pts β PSV Eindhoven #19 Β· 1 pts
RB Leipzig
PSV Eindhoven
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
RB Leipzig
PSV Eindhoven
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
RB Leipzig
- β C. Baumgartner β Thigh Injury
- β A. Kone β Off the roster
- β R. Reitz β Muscle Injury
- β L. Zingerle β Off the roster
- β M. Guiu β Hamstring Injury
- β A. Ouedraogo β Shoulder Injury
PSV Eindhoven
- β M. Bro Hansen β Injury
- β S. Lammers β Lacking Match Fitness
- β Mauro Junior β Red Card
- β S. Ouaissa β Muscle Injury
- β A. Plea β Surgery
- β J. Schouten β Knee Injury
- β K. Sildillia β Surgery
- β A. Nagalo β Injury
- β R. Pepi β Injury
- β P. Wanner β Foot Injury
More: UEFA Champions League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws
Referee: Nick Walsh