Predictions β†’ World UEFA Europa League

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille

Next match: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 β€’ 20:00 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 4 β€’ BayArena β€’ β˜€οΈ 6.8Β°C, 3 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipOddsConfidenceProbabilityMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home β€”92% 82.5% β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X β€”84% 89.8% β€” β€”
BTTS No β€”82% 51.5% β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 β€”83% 53.2% β€” β€”
Correct Score 3-0 β€”65% 8.6% β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.2 exp.) Over 9.5 β€”62% 53.5% β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.38 – 0.67 Marseille Β· expected total 3.05

🧠 Match Preview

Bayer Leverkusen host Marseille on matchday four of the Europa League league stage, and the stakes are lopsided: Leverkusen sit second on 9 points from 3 games, while Marseille are 34th with 0 points from 3. The model makes the hosts heavy favourites at 82.5 percent for the home win with 92 confidence, and the double chance 1X lands at 89.8 percent.

The form line reinforces it. Leverkusen have won all five of their last five (WWWWW); Marseille have alternated (LWLWL). The expected goals split is stark: 2.3849 for Leverkusen against 0.6655 for Marseille, with recent xG of 3.18 and 1.13 respectively. The most likely scoreline is 3-0 at 10.82 percent, followed by 2-1 at 9.06 and 3-1 at 7.2. Both teams to score is tipped No at 51.5 percent, and Over 2.5 goals at 53.2 percent. Corners lean Over 9.5 with an expected 10.2 and 53.5 percent.

The value question is where the bookmaker prices drift from the model. The home win at 82.5 percent is the anchor, but the thinner edges sit in the goals and corners markets, where probabilities hover just above a coin flip. The 3-0 correct score at 10.82 percent is the standout single-score play. The honest caveat: Leverkusen's injury list is long, with eleven names including Boniface, Hofmann and Terrier, and Marseille's six absentees include Hojbjerg and Kondogbia. Squad rotation could soften the home edge, so treat the goals markets with more caution than the result.

Updated 23 Oct 2026, 17:51 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Bayer Leverkusen

Form (last 5)
WOFI (A) 2–0 Β· 22/10/2026WSC Freiburg (H) 2–1 Β· 18/10/2026WLech Poznan (A) 4–0 Β· 15/10/2026WFSV Mainz 05 (A) 4–3 Β· 10/10/2026WRB Leipzig (H) 2–0 Β· 20/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.70
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)2.57
xG against (recent avg)1.12
Elo strength rating1427
Players out11

Marseille

Form (last 5)
LSturm Graz (A) 0–1 Β· 22/10/2026WAngers (A) 5–2 Β· 18/10/2026LOlympiakos Piraeus (H) 0–1 Β· 15/10/2026WEstac Troyes (A) 2–0 Β· 11/10/2026LParis Saint Germain (H) 1–2 Β· 20/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.30
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)0.74
xG against (recent avg)0.67
Elo strength rating1295
Players out6
Bayer LeverkusenMarseille
Goals scored (season avg)
2.70
0.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.00
2.00
Win streak (best this season)
3
0
xG for (recent avg)
2.57
0.74
xG against (recent avg)
1.12
0.67
Elo strength rating
1427
1295
Players out
11
6

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Bayer Leverkusen

Won 6 in a row Unbeaten 8
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Marseille

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” UEFA Europa League

Bayer Leverkusen

3rd best attack (2.70 goals/game) Best defence (0.00 conceded/game)

Marseille

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Bayer Leverkusen at home Β· Marseille away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Bayer Leverkusen (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Marseille (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–2L
L 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)2.50
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Bayer Leverkusen (home)Marseille (away)
W 1
L 2
Played
1
2
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
0.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
2.50
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
0
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

3–0
8.6%
2–1
7.2%
3–1
5.7%
4–0
5.1%
4–1
3.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Bayer Leverkusen 1 win Β· 0 draws Β· Marseille 0 wins Β· avg 3 goals Β· BTTS in 1 of 1

1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
02 Aug 2023 Marseille 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen Friendlies Clubs

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Bayer Leverkusen

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
22/10 OFI Away 2–0 W
18/10 SC Freiburg Home 2–1 W
15/10 Lech Poznan Away 4–0 W
10/10 FSV Mainz 05 Away 4–3 W
20/09 RB Leipzig Home 2–0 W

Marseille

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
22/10 Sturm Graz Away 0–1 L
18/10 Angers Away 5–2 W
15/10 Olympiakos Piraeus Home 0–1 L
11/10 Estac Troyes Away 2–0 W
20/09 Paris Saint Germain Home 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Europa League

Bayer Leverkusen #2 Β· 9 pts β€”  Marseille #34 Β· 0 pts

Bayer Leverkusen

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–0L
W 3
Played3
Goals scored (avg)2.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0
Yellow cards6
Red cards0
xG for (avg)2.57
xG against (avg)1.12
Corners for (avg)6.50
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Marseille

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–3L
L 3
Played3
Goals scored (avg)0.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Yellow cards6
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.74
xG against (avg)0.67
Corners for (avg)5.00
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Bayer LeverkusenMarseille
W 3
L 3
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
2.70
0.30
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
2.00
Clean sheets
3
0
Failed to score
0
2
Yellow cards
6
6
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
2.57
0.74
xG against (avg)
1.12
0.67
Corners for (avg)
6.50
5.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Bayer Leverkusen

1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
4
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Marseille

2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Bayer Leverkusen

  • ❌ V. Boniface β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ M. Culbreath β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ G. Doue β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ K. Eichhorn β€” Illness
  • ❌ J. Hofmann β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ I. Maza β€” Illness
  • ❌ T. Oermann β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ N. Tella β€” Injury
  • ❌ E. Ben Seghir β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ C. Kofane β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ M. Terrier β€” Muscle Injury

Marseille

  • ❌ G. Kondogbia β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ T. Nnadi β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ D. Cornelius β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ A. Koum Mbondo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ F. Moumbagna β€” Inactive
  • ❌ P. Hojbjerg β€” Muscle Injury

More: UEFA Europa League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws