Italy vs France
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Thu, 12 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • League A - 5
Looking for the previous match? View the result and our pre-match prediction from 02 Oct 2026 below.
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 45.7% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 78.6% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 77.3% · No 22.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 78.9% · Under 21.1% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 7.5% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.5 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 50.1% · Over 49.9% | — |
Bookmaker links on this page: #ad · Play Safe · T&Cs apply · 18+
🧠 Match Preview
Model view
Model 1X2 split: Italy 45.7% · Draw 21.4% · France 32.9%. Selected outcome: Italy win.
Goals
Model expected goals: Italy 2.28, France 1.93, expected total 4.21.
Price check
No current price is available, so model EV cannot be calculated.
Form / H2H
Italy: W-D-W-L-W in their last five matches.
France: W-D-W-W-L in their last five matches.
Last meeting: Italy 1–3 France, 17 Nov 2024.
Historical form, not a probability for the next match.
Limitations
Lineups, injuries and late team news can change the outlook. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.
Generated deterministically from the same prediction record as the table above. No AI text, no numbers beyond it.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Italy
France
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Italy
France
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Italy at home · France away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Italy (home)
France (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
France 2 wins · 0 draws · Italy 2 wins · avg 3.5 goals · BTTS in 3 of 4
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov 2024 | Italy | 1–3 | France | UEFA Nations League |
| 06 Sep 2024 | France | 1–3 | Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| 01 Jun 2018 | France | 3–1 | Italy | Friendlies |
| 17 Jun 2008 | France | 0–2 | Italy | Euro Championship |
📈 Recent Form
Italy
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Türkiye | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 02/10 | France | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 28/09 | Türkiye | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 25/09 | Belgium | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 07/06 | Greece | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 03/06 | Luxembourg | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 26/03 | Northern Ireland | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 16/11 | Norway | Home | 1–4 | L |
| 13/11 | Moldova | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 14/10 | Israel | Home | 3–0 | W |
France
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Belgium | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 02/10 | Italy | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 28/09 | Belgium | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 25/09 | Türkiye | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 19/07 | England | Home | 4–6 | L |
| 14/07 | Spain | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 09/07 | Morocco | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 05/07 | Paraguay | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 01/07 | Sweden | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 26/06 | Norway | Away | 4–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: UEFA Nations League
Italy #2 · 7 pts · France #1 · 10 pts
Italy
France
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Italy
France
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🗂️ Prediction History
What PredictLix published before each meeting of these teams: frozen pre-match snapshots, not reconstructions from current data. Head-to-head above shows how the teams played; this block shows what we predicted.
| Date | Fixture | Our pick | Probability | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct 2026 | France vs Italy | France win (home) | 70.4% | 1.50 | 1–1 | ❌ |
Our site-wide performance record is calculated from the final pre-match snapshot of each fixture. See Our Record.
More: UEFA Nations League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws