UEFA Nations League Correct Score Football Predictions

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League A, Round 5

Thursday, November 12

Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Score Odds Model EV Result
20:00 LLLLW LWLWL 9.4% 0-1 Bet36511.00 +3.4% —
22:45 WWWLW LLLWL 7.6% 3-1 Bet36511.00 -16.4% —
22:45 WDWLW WDWWL 6.3% 1-2 Betano8.75 -44.9% —
22:45 LLLLL WWWWW 9.6% 1-2 Bet36511.00 +5.6% —

Form: last 5 matches in all competitions, newest first.

Friday, November 13

Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Score Odds Model EV Result
22:45 LLLLL DWLDL 11.7% 0-1 Bet36511.00 +28.7% —
22:45 WDWDW DDWWL 9.6% 2-1 Betano8.75 -16% —

Saturday, November 14

Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Score Odds Model EV Result
20:00 LLLWW LWLLL 8.9% 2-1 Betano9.75 -13.2% —

League B, Round 5

Friday, November 13

Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Score Odds Model EV Result
22:45 WLWDL WWWWW 9.3% 1-2 Betano8.75 -18.6% —
22:45 LWLDL LLLLL 13.2% 1-0 Bet3656.00 -20.8% —

Saturday, November 14

Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Score Odds Model EV Result
17:00 DDLWW DDLLW 18.8% 1-0 Bet3657.50 +41% —

League C, Round 5

Thursday, November 12

Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Score Odds Model EV Result
20:00 DLLWD WWDLW 9% 2-1 Bet3659.50 -14.5% —
22:45 WLWWL LWDWL 8.6% 2-1 Bet3659.50 -18.3% —
22:45 DWWWD LLDLL 12.1% 2-0 Betano6.20 -25% —
22:45 LLLLL WWDLD 9.2% 1-2 SBO11.56 +6.4% —

Friday, November 13

Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Score Odds Model EV Result
20:00 LWDLD DLLDL 12.8% 1-1 Bet3656.50 -16.8% —
22:45 WDWWD DDDDW 9.8% 2-1 Betano9.25 -9.3% —
22:45 LLLWW DWDDW 17.3% 0-0 BetVictor8.00 +38.4% —
22:45 WLDLD DWWDL 9% 1-2 Bet3659.00 -19% —

League D, Round 5

Friday, November 13

Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Score Odds Model EV Result
22:45 LWLLL WLLLL 17% 0-1 Marathonbet4.25 -27.8% —
22:45 LDLLW LLLLL 19.7% 1-0 Betfair4.00 -21.2% —

How to Read the Prediction Table

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Model Accuracy — Season 2026/27

Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types — wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.

104 matches analysed Updated Oct 6, 2026 Full record — wins and losses → Value bets →
🎯 Match Result (1X2)
55.8% 58/104
⚽ Both Teams to Score
53.8% 56/104
📈 Over / Under 2.5
50.0% 52/104
🔢 Correct Score
7.7% 8/104
🛡️ Double Chance
76.0% 79/104
📐 Corners Over/Under
47.1% 49/104
🤝 Draw Predictions
60.0% 3/5
📌 1X2 · draw picks
60.0% 3/5
📌 1X2 · home/away picks
55.6% 55/99
Calibration coverage
  • Match Result (1X2): 104/104. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Both Teams to Score: 104/104. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Over / Under 2.5: 104/104. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Correct Score: 104/104. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Double Chance: 104/104. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Corners Over/Under: 104/104. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Draw Predictions: 3/5. Excluded: 2 without stored probability.
Probability Calibration — Does 70% Really Mean 70%?

Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.

MarketPredictedActualSample
Match Result (1X2) · <60% 43.5% 49.3% 75
Match Result (1X2) · 70-79% 74.4% 81.8% 11 (small sample)
Match Result (1X2) · 60-69% 64.8% 61.5% 13 (small sample)
Match Result (1X2) · 80+% 86.4% 80.0% 5 (small sample)
Both Teams to Score · 60-69% 62.5% 66.7% 3 (small sample)
Both Teams to Score · <60% 51.8% 54.0% 100
Both Teams to Score · 70-79% 73.1% 0.0% 1 (small sample)
Over / Under 2.5 · 60-69% 62.2% 66.7% 6 (small sample)
Over / Under 2.5 · <60% 51.5% 48.5% 97
Over / Under 2.5 · 70-79% 70.6% 100.0% 1 (small sample)
Correct Score · <60% 9.5% 7.7% 104
Double Chance · 70-79% 74.3% 72.9% 59
Double Chance · 80+% 82.5% 93.8% 16 (small sample)
Double Chance · 60-69% 67.6% 72.4% 29 (small sample)
Corners Over/Under · 60-69% 64.0% 80.0% 10 (small sample)
Corners Over/Under · <60% 54.9% 43.6% 94
Draw Predictions · <60% 32.0% 66.7% 3 (small sample)

Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.

Previous Round Results: League A, Round 4

Date / Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Score Odds Model EV Result
14/10 21:45 LWLWL WDWWL — No data N/A — 1 – 2 FT
14/10 21:45 DWLDL WDWDW — No data N/A — 1 – 0 FT
14/10 21:45 WDWLW DDLLW — No data N/A — 4 – 1 FT
14/10 21:45 ----- ----- — No data N/A — 0 – 2 FT
15/10 21:45 WWWWW LLLLL — No data N/A — 3 – 0 FT
15/10 21:45 WWWWW W — No data N/A — 2 – 2 FT
15/10 21:45 ----- LLLWL — No data N/A — 3 – 3 FT
15/10 21:45 LWLDL W — No data N/A — 0 – 0 FT
04/10 21:45 DDWWL DWLDL 4.8% 0-1 ❌ N/A — 0 – 0 FT
04/10 21:45 WDWDW LLLLL 9.4% 2-0 ❌ N/A — 2 – 1 FT
04/10 21:45 W LLLWW 7.8% 2-1 ✅ N/A — 2 – 1 FT
04/10 21:45 LWLLL W 6.9% 1-2 ❌ N/A — 0 – 1 FT
05/10 21:45 WDWWL LWLWL 8.2% 1-0 ❌ N/A — 4 – 1 FT
05/10 21:45 WDWLW LLLLW 9.7% 2-0 ❌ N/A — 3 – 1 FT
06/10 21:45 LLLWL WWWWW 6% 2-1 ❌ N/A — 1 – 2 FT
06/10 21:45 WWWLW LLLLL 10% 1-0 ❌ N/A — 3 – 0 FT

Previous Round Results: League B, Round 4

Date / Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Score Odds Model EV Result
13/10 16:00 DLLDL WLWDL — No data N/A — 0 – 1 FT
13/10 19:00 LWDWL WWWLW — No data N/A — 1 – 3 FT
13/10 21:45 DDWWL LLLWW — No data N/A — 5 – 1 FT
13/10 21:45 DDWWL DDWLD — No data N/A — 2 – 0 FT
14/10 19:00 ----- WLWWL — No data N/A — 0 – 1 FT
14/10 21:45 DWWDL LLLLW — No data N/A — 2 – 4 FT
14/10 21:45 LWLLL DWWWD — No data N/A — 1 – 0 FT
14/10 21:45 ----- LLLLL — No data N/A — 1 – 1 FT
04/10 19:00 DDLWW DDWWL 5.8% 1-2 ❌ N/A — 1 – 1 FT
04/10 21:45 DDWLD DDLLW 7.9% 2-1 ❌ N/A — 1 – 1 FT
05/10 21:45 LDWLW WDLWW 8.5% 1-0 ❌ N/A — 1 – 2 FT
05/10 21:45 WDWLW LDLWD 11.1% 1-0 ❌ N/A — 0 – 0 FT
05/10 21:45 DWDLW WLDDL 7.1% 2-1 ❌ N/A — 1 – 0 FT
05/10 21:45 LLLWD DWWLD 8.3% 1-0 ❌ N/A — 0 – 1 FT
06/10 21:45 WWWWW LLLLL 10.4% 1-0 ❌ N/A — 3 – 0 FT
06/10 21:45 LWLDL WLWDL 8.9% 1-0 ❌ N/A — 1 – 2 FT

Previous Round Results: League C, Round 4

Date / Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Score Odds Model EV Result
13/10 19:00 DLLWD LLLLL — No data N/A — 0 – 2 FT
13/10 21:45 DDDDW LLDLL — No data N/A — 1 – 1 FT
14/10 19:00 WLLLL WDWWD — No data N/A — 1 – 3 FT
14/10 21:45 DWDDW ----- — No data N/A — 0 – 3 FT
15/10 21:45 ----- WLDLD — No data N/A — 5 – 0 FT
15/10 21:45 WDWLL ----- — No data N/A — 1 – 2 FT
15/10 21:45 WWDLD LLLWW — No data N/A — 1 – 1 FT
15/10 21:45 DDLWW WWDLW — No data N/A — 3 – 0 FT
05/10 19:00 WWDLW LLDLL 17.2% 1-0 ❌ N/A — 2 – 1 FT
05/10 21:45 DWWWD DLLWD 7.5% 2-1 ❌ N/A — 0 – 0 FT
06/10 17:00 DLLDL DDDDW 13.9% 0-0 ❌ N/A — 2 – 2 FT
06/10 21:45 WLWWL LLLLL 9.5% 2-0 ❌ N/A — 2 – 1 FT
06/10 21:45 WWDLD LWDWL 21.4% 0-0 ❌ N/A — 1 – 0 FT
06/10 21:45 LWDLD WDWWD 9% 0-1 ❌ N/A — 0 – 4 FT
06/10 21:45 DWDDW DWWDL 10.5% 1-0 ❌ N/A — 0 – 0 FT
06/10 21:45 LLLWW WLDLD 12.7% 1-0 ❌ N/A — 0 – 2 FT

Previous Round Results: League D, Round 4

Date / Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Score Odds Model EV Result
13/10 19:00 LWLLL LLLLL — No data N/A — 0 – 0 FT
13/10 19:00 LLLWL LWDLD — No data N/A — 1 – 0 FT
04/10 16:00 WLLLL WDWLL 10% 1-0 ✅ N/A — 1 – 0 FT
04/10 19:00 LLLWL LDLLW 19.6% 1-0 ✅ N/A — 1 – 0 FT