Albania vs Finland
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Thu, 12 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • League C - 5
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 41.8% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 75.6% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 68% · No 32% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 66.5% · Under 33.5% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 8.6% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.5 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 57.2% · Under 42.8% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Albania · Home
Albania have scored in four of their last five, including 2-1 and 2-0 home wins, though they also lost 0-1 at home to Luxembourg. Their recent xG for of 2.15 over up to five recent matches with recorded statistics sits above the model expected goals of 1.81 for this fixture.
Finland · Away
Finland won the latest H2H 2-1, but that was at home, and they have failed to score in two of their last five. Their recent xG for of 1.45 over up to five recent matches with recorded statistics is lower than Albania's, and their model expected goals of 1.62 is also below the hosts'.
Albania edge a close H2H
The latest H2H, 3 Oct 2026, ended 2-1 to Finland at home, so Albania have yet to face them at home in this sample. Albania's five-match record of 3 wins and 2 losses includes two home clean-sheet wins, while Finland's away form shows a 0-1 loss at Belarus and a 1-2 loss at Hungary. The 2-1 correct score reflects a narrow home edge rather than dominance. The evidence supports Albania win.
Published 30 Oct 2026 01:37 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Albania 1.81 – 1.62 Finland · expected total 3.43
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Albania
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Albania
Finland
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Albania at home · Finland away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Albania (home)
Finland (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Albania 0 wins · 0 draws · Finland 1 win · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 1 of 1
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct 2026 | Finland | 2–1 | Albania | UEFA Nations League |
📈 Recent Form
Albania
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | San Marino | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 03/10 | Finland | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 29/09 | San Marino | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 26/09 | Belarus | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 06/06 | Luxembourg | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 03/06 | Israel | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 31/03 | Ukraine | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 26/03 | Poland | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 16/11 | England | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 13/11 | Andorra | Away | 1–0 | W |
Finland
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Belarus | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 03/10 | Albania | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 29/09 | Belarus | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 26/09 | San Marino | Away | 7–0 | W |
| 05/06 | Hungary | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 31/05 | Germany | Away | 0–4 | L |
| 27/03 | New Zealand | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 17/11 | Andorra | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 14/11 | Malta | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 12/10 | Netherlands | Away | 0–4 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: UEFA Nations League
Albania
Finland
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Albania
Finland
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🗂️ Prediction History
What PredictLix published before each meeting of these teams: frozen pre-match snapshots, not reconstructions from current data. Head-to-head above shows how the teams played; this block shows what we predicted.
| Date | Fixture | Our pick | Probability | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct 2026 | Finland vs Albania | Finland win (home) | 36.7% | 2.48 | 2–1 | ✅ |
Our site-wide performance record is calculated from the final pre-match snapshot of each fixture. See Our Record.
More: UEFA Nations League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws