Luxembourg vs Estonia
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Fri, 13 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • League C - 5
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | Current price not available | 46.3% | — |
| Double Chance | X2 | Current price not available | 80% | — |
| BTTS | No | Current price not available | 65.3% · Yes 34.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Current price not available | 72.3% · Over 27.7% | — |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | Current price not available | 17.4% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.9 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 54.9% · Over 45.1% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Luxembourg · Home
Luxembourg have lost three of their last five, failing to score in three of those matches, including a 0-2 home defeat to Bulgaria. Their recent xG for of 0.64 sits close to a model expected goals of 0.67, underlining a limited attacking output.
Estonia · Away
Estonia are unbeaten across their last five, with four clean sheets and only one goal conceded. That run includes a 1-0 home win over Luxembourg, the latest head-to-head, and a 0-0 draw with Iceland.
Estonia's defence travels well
Estonia's recent record of four clean sheets in five matches is the standout pattern, and the latest head-to-head was a 1-0 Estonia win over Luxembourg. Luxembourg failed to score in three of their last five and managed just 0.64 recent xG for, while Estonia's recent xG for of 1.16 matches their model expected goals of 1.16. With the correct score set at 0-1 and Under 2.5 at 72.3%, a low-scoring away win is the realistic shape. The evidence supports Estonia win.
Published 31 Oct 2026 04:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Luxembourg 0.67 – 1.16 Estonia · expected total 1.83
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Luxembourg
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Luxembourg
Estonia
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: UEFA Nations League
Luxembourg
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Estonia
Rank among 44 UEFA Nations League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Luxembourg at home · Estonia away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Luxembourg (home)
Estonia (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Estonia 1 win · 0 draws · Luxembourg 0 wins · avg 1 goals · BTTS in 0 of 1
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct 2026 | Estonia | 1–0 | Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League |
📈 Recent Form
Luxembourg
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Bulgaria | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 03/10 | Estonia | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 29/09 | Iceland | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 26/09 | Bulgaria | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 06/06 | Albania | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 03/06 | Italy | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 31/03 | Malta | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 26/03 | Malta | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 17/11 | Northern Ireland | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 14/11 | Germany | Home | 0–2 | L |
Estonia
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Iceland | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 03/10 | Luxembourg | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 29/09 | Bulgaria | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 26/09 | Iceland | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 09/06 | Lithuania | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 06/06 | Faroe Islands | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 30/03 | Rwanda | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 18/11 | Cyprus | Away | 4–2 | W |
| 13/11 | Norway | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 14/10 | Moldova | Home | 1–1 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: UEFA Nations League
Luxembourg
Estonia
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Luxembourg
Estonia
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🗂️ Prediction History
What PredictLix published before each meeting of these teams: frozen pre-match snapshots, not reconstructions from current data. Head-to-head above shows how the teams played; this block shows what we predicted.
| Date | Fixture | Our pick | Probability | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct 2026 | Estonia vs Luxembourg | Estonia win (home) | 44.7% | 3.08 | 1–0 | ✅ |
Our site-wide performance record is calculated from the final pre-match snapshot of each fixture. See Our Record.
More: UEFA Nations League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws