San Marino vs Belarus
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Thu, 12 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • League C - 5 • 🌦 12.5°C, 3 km/h, 0.2mm drizzle
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 10:09 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | Current price not available | 47.5% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 75.8% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 66% · No 34% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 65% · Under 35% | — |
| Correct Score | 1-2 | Current price not available | 9.2% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~7.6 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 65.1% · Over 34.9% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
San Marino · Home
San Marino have lost all five recent matches, failing to score in three and conceding 18 goals across that run. Their latest home meeting with Belarus ended 0-2, and the most recent head-to-head finished 4-0 in Belarus's favour.
Belarus · Away
Belarus have won two of their last five, including a 4-0 home win over San Marino, and kept three clean sheets in that sequence. Their recent xG for of 0.88 sits well below their model expected goals of 1.91 for this fixture.
Belarus edge the H2H record
The latest head-to-head, a 4-0 Belarus win, follows earlier meetings of 0-2 and 5-0, so San Marino have never avoided defeat in the supplied H2H record. San Marino's five recent defeats include a 0-7 home loss to Finland and a 0-4 away loss to Belarus, with only two goals scored across those five games. Belarus have kept three clean sheets in five and scored four against San Marino, though their recent xG for of 0.88 is modest. The evidence supports Belarus win.
Published 31 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: San Marino 1.44 – 1.91 Belarus · expected total 3.35
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
San Marino
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
San Marino
Belarus
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: UEFA Nations League
San Marino
Belarus
Rank among 44 UEFA Nations League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
San Marino at home · Belarus away, the split that matters for this fixture.
San Marino (home)
Belarus (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Belarus 3 wins · 0 draws · San Marino 0 wins · avg 3.7 goals · BTTS in 0 of 3
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct 2026 | Belarus | 4–0 | San Marino | UEFA Nations League |
| 18 Nov 2018 | San Marino | 0–2 | Belarus | UEFA Nations League |
| 08 Sep 2018 | Belarus | 5–0 | San Marino | UEFA Nations League |
📈 Recent Form
San Marino
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Albania | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 03/10 | Belarus | Away | 0–4 | L |
| 29/09 | Albania | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 26/09 | Finland | Home | 0–7 | L |
| 09/06 | Azerbaijan | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 05/06 | Bangladesh | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 31/03 | Andorra | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 28/03 | Faroe Islands | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 18/11 | Romania | Away | 1–7 | L |
| 13/11 | Czechia | Away | 0–1 | L |
Belarus
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Finland | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 03/10 | San Marino | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 29/09 | Finland | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 26/09 | Albania | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 09/06 | Burkina Faso | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 05/06 | Syria | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 29/03 | Armenia | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 26/03 | Cyprus | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 18/11 | Greece | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 15/11 | Denmark | Away | 2–2 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: UEFA Nations League
San Marino
Belarus
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
San Marino
Belarus
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🗂️ Prediction History
What PredictLix published before each meeting of these teams: frozen pre-match snapshots, not reconstructions from current data. Head-to-head above shows how the teams played; this block shows what we predicted.
| Date | Fixture | Our pick | Probability | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct 2026 | Belarus vs San Marino | Belarus win (home) | 68.0% | 1.09 | 4–0 | ✅ |
Our site-wide performance record is calculated from the final pre-match snapshot of each fixture. See Our Record.
More: UEFA Nations League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws