Serbia vs Germany
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Fri, 13 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • League A - 5 • 🌤 9.8°C, 4 km/h mostly clear
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | Current price not available | 40.2% | — |
| Double Chance | X2 | Current price not available | 71.3% | — |
| BTTS | No | Current price not available | 53.3% · Yes 46.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Current price not available | 60.7% · Over 39.3% | — |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | Current price not available | 11.7% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.9 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 54.5% · Over 45.5% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Serbia · Home
Serbia enter on a five-match losing run, including a 1-2 home defeat to the Netherlands and a 1-5 loss in Mexico, with 4 goals scored and 13 conceded across that sequence. They failed to score in only one of those five games, so the issue has been the volume conceded rather than a total absence of output.
Germany · Away
Germany's latest meeting with Serbia was a 2-0 win, and their recent record shows 2 clean sheets in 5 matches with just 4 goals against. Their recent weighted xG of 1.17 sits close to a model expected goals figure of 1.25, a modest but coherent attacking baseline.
Germany's H2H edge holds
The latest head-to-head is the clearest guide: Germany beat Serbia 2-0, having also drawn 1-1 in 2019, while Serbia's 1-0 win came back in 2010. Germany's recent 0-0 and 1-1 draws show low-scoring games are plausible, which fits an Under 2.5 lean and a 0-1 correct-score estimate. Serbia's five straight defeats, with 13 goals conceded, make a narrow Germany win a realistic reading rather than an emphatic one. The evidence supports Germany win.
Published 31 Oct 2026 04:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Serbia 1.01 – 1.25 Germany · expected total 2.26
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Serbia
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Serbia
Germany
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Serbia at home · Germany away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Serbia (home)
Germany (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Germany 1 win · 1 draw · Serbia 1 win · avg 1.7 goals · BTTS in 1 of 3
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct 2026 | Germany | 2–0 | Serbia | UEFA Nations League |
| 20 Mar 2019 | Germany | 1–1 | Serbia | Friendlies |
| 18 Jun 2010 | Germany | 0–1 | Serbia | World Cup |
📈 Recent Form
Serbia
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Netherlands | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 01/10 | Germany | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 27/09 | Netherlands | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 24/09 | Greece | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 05/06 | Mexico | Away | 1–5 | L |
| 31/05 | Cape Verde Islands | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 31/03 | Saudi Arabia | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 27/03 | Spain | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 16/11 | Latvia | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 13/11 | England | Away | 0–2 | L |
Germany
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Greece | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 01/10 | Serbia | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 27/09 | Greece | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 24/09 | Netherlands | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 25/06 | Ecuador | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 20/06 | Ivory Coast | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 14/06 | Curaçao | Home | 7–1 | W |
| 06/06 | USA | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 31/05 | Finland | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 30/03 | Ghana | Home | 2–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: UEFA Nations League
Serbia
Germany
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Serbia
Germany
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🗂️ Prediction History
What PredictLix published before each meeting of these teams: frozen pre-match snapshots, not reconstructions from current data. Head-to-head above shows how the teams played; this block shows what we predicted.
| Date | Fixture | Our pick | Probability | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct 2026 | Germany vs Serbia | Germany win (home) | 79.4% | 1.22 | 2–0 | ✅ |
Our site-wide performance record is calculated from the final pre-match snapshot of each fixture. See Our Record.
More: UEFA Nations League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws