Norway vs Wales
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 • 20:00 UTC+3 • League A - 5 • ⛅ -0.7°C, 5 km/h partly cloudy
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw | Current price not available | 27.1% | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | Current price not available | 68% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 59.1% · No 40.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Current price not available | 45.2% · Over 54.8% | — |
| Correct Score | 1-1 | Current price not available | 12.8% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.8 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 55.2% · Over 44.8% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Norway · Home
Norway have scored in all five recent matches, including a 3-2 win over Denmark and a 2-1 win away to Brazil, yet they lost three of those five. Their recent xG for of 0.97 sits well below their model expected goals of 1.54 for this fixture.
Wales · Away
Wales failed to score in three of their last five matches, with recent xG for of 0.69. Their one win in that run was a 2-1 home victory over Norway, the latest head-to-head, which ended 2-1.
Wales edge latest meeting
The latest head-to-head is the clearest signal: Wales beat Norway 2-1 at home, so this is not a mismatch in Wales's favour by history alone. Norway's five-match record shows 8 goals for and 9 against with no clean sheets, while Wales scored just 3 goals across five games and failed to score three times. Those numbers point to a tight, low-scoring contest rather than a comfortable home win. The evidence supports Draw.
Published 01 Nov 2026 16:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Norway 1.54 – 1.34 Wales · expected total 2.88
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Norway
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Norway
Wales
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: UEFA Nations League
Norway
Wales
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 44 UEFA Nations League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Norway at home · Wales away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Norway (home)
Wales (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Norway 0 wins · 0 draws · Wales 1 win · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 1 of 1
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct 2026 | Wales | 2–1 | Norway | UEFA Nations League |
📈 Recent Form
Norway
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Portugal | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 01/10 | Wales | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 27/09 | Portugal | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 24/09 | Denmark | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 05/07 | Brazil | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 30/06 | Ivory Coast | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 26/06 | France | Home | 1–4 | L |
| 23/06 | Senegal | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 17/06 | Iraq | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 07/06 | Morocco | Away | 1–1 | D |
Wales
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Denmark | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 01/10 | Norway | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 27/09 | Denmark | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 24/09 | Portugal | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 06/06 | Romania | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 02/06 | Ghana | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 31/03 | Northern Ireland | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 18/11 | FYR Macedonia | Home | 7–1 | W |
| 15/11 | Liechtenstein | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 13/10 | Belgium | Home | 2–4 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: UEFA Nations League
Norway
Wales
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Norway
Wales
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🗂️ Prediction History
What PredictLix published before each meeting of these teams: frozen pre-match snapshots, not reconstructions from current data. Head-to-head above shows how the teams played; this block shows what we predicted.
| Date | Fixture | Our pick | Probability | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct 2026 | Wales vs Norway | Norway win (away) | 60.4% | 1.50 | 2–1 | ❌ |
Our site-wide performance record is calculated from the final pre-match snapshot of each fixture. See Our Record.
More: UEFA Nations League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws