Bulgaria vs Iceland
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Fri, 13 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • League C - 5 • ☀️ 6.1°C, 2 km/h clear
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw | Current price not available | 25.6% | — |
| Double Chance | X2 | Current price not available | 67.8% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 63.9% · No 36.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Current price not available | 38.8% · Over 61.2% | — |
| Correct Score | 1-1 | Current price not available | 11.6% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.1 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 52.8% · Over 47.2% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Bulgaria · Home
Bulgaria's recent 0-0 home draw with Estonia and 2-2 away draw in Moldova show they can share points in low-scoring or level contests. Their five-match record of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses includes two clean sheets and two matches in which they failed to score.
Iceland · Away
Iceland's latest H2H meeting was a 3-0 home win over Bulgaria, yet their most recent match was a 0-0 away draw with Estonia. Their five-match record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss includes three clean sheets and two matches in which they failed to score.
Draw Pattern Holds
Bulgaria have drawn 2 of their last 5, including a 0-0 home result against Estonia, while Iceland drew 0-0 away to Estonia in their latest match. The latest H2H was a 3-0 Iceland home win, but Iceland have also drawn 2 of their last 5. Bulgaria's recent record of 5 goals for and 7 against across 5 matches points to a tight contest rather than a clear winner. The evidence supports Draw.
Published 30 Oct 2026 01:37 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Bulgaria 1.47 – 1.70 Iceland · expected total 3.16
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Bulgaria
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Bulgaria
Iceland
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: UEFA Nations League
Bulgaria
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Iceland
Rank among 44 UEFA Nations League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Bulgaria at home · Iceland away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Bulgaria (home)
Iceland (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Bulgaria 0 wins · 0 draws · Iceland 1 win · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 0 of 1
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct 2026 | Iceland | 3–0 | Bulgaria | UEFA Nations League |
📈 Recent Form
Bulgaria
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Luxembourg | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Iceland | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 29/09 | Estonia | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 26/09 | Luxembourg | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 05/06 | Moldova | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 01/06 | Montenegro | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 30/03 | Indonesia | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 27/03 | Solomon Islands | Away | 10–2 | W |
| 18/11 | Georgia | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 15/11 | Türkiye | Away | 0–2 | L |
Iceland
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Estonia | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 03/10 | Bulgaria | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 29/09 | Luxembourg | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 26/09 | Estonia | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 10/06 | Argentina | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 31/05 | Japan | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 31/03 | Haiti | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 28/03 | Canada | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 26/02 | Mexico | Away | 0–4 | L |
| 16/11 | Ukraine | Away | 0–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: UEFA Nations League
Bulgaria
Iceland
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Bulgaria
Iceland
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🗂️ Prediction History
What PredictLix published before each meeting of these teams: frozen pre-match snapshots, not reconstructions from current data. Head-to-head above shows how the teams played; this block shows what we predicted.
| Date | Fixture | Our pick | Probability | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct 2026 | Iceland vs Bulgaria | Iceland win (home) | 50.4% | 1.52 | 3–0 | ✅ |
Our site-wide performance record is calculated from the final pre-match snapshot of each fixture. See Our Record.
More: UEFA Nations League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws