Netherlands vs Greece
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Fri, 13 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • League A - 5 • 🌦 12.7°C, 16 km/h, 0.2mm drizzle
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 10:09 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 51.2% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 76.1% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 64.4% · No 35.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 64.1% · Under 35.9% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 9.6% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 53.3% · Under 46.7% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Netherlands · Home
Netherlands are unbeaten across their last five with 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring 10 goals and failing to score in none of those matches. Their recent xG for of 1.87 over up to five recent matches with recorded statistics sits just below a model expected goals of 1.98 for this fixture.
Greece · Away
Greece drew 2-2 at home against the Netherlands in the latest head-to-head, 2-2, and also held Germany 0-0 at home. Their recent xG for of 0.83 over up to five recent matches with recorded statistics is well below a model expected goals of 1.34 here.
Greece's away resilience tested
The latest head-to-head, a 2-2 draw in Greece on 1 Oct 2026, shows the visitors can score against the Netherlands, and Greece also won 1-0 away to Germany. Yet the Netherlands have scored in all five recent matches, including 2-1 wins over Serbia home and away, 2-1 and 2-1. Greece failed to score in two of their last five, which limits how often they can match that output. The evidence supports Netherlands win.
Published 31 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Netherlands 1.98 – 1.34 Greece · expected total 3.31
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Netherlands
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Netherlands
Greece
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: UEFA Nations League
Netherlands
Greece
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 44 UEFA Nations League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Netherlands at home · Greece away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Netherlands (home)
Greece (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Greece 0 wins · 1 draw · Netherlands 2 wins · avg 2.7 goals · BTTS in 1 of 3
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct 2026 | Greece | 2–2 | Netherlands | UEFA Nations League |
| 16 Oct 2023 | Greece | 0–1 | Netherlands | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| 07 Sep 2023 | Netherlands | 3–0 | Greece | Euro Championship - Qualification |
📈 Recent Form
Netherlands
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Serbia | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 01/10 | Greece | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 27/09 | Serbia | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 24/09 | Germany | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 26/06 | Tunisia | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 20/06 | Sweden | Home | 5–1 | W |
| 14/06 | Japan | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 08/06 | Uzbekistan | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 03/06 | Algeria | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 31/03 | Ecuador | Home | 1–1 | D |
Greece
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Germany | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 01/10 | Netherlands | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 27/09 | Germany | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 24/09 | Serbia | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 07/06 | Italy | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 04/06 | Sweden | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 31/03 | Hungary | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 27/03 | Paraguay | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 18/11 | Belarus | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 15/11 | Scotland | Home | 3–2 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: UEFA Nations League
Netherlands
Greece
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Netherlands
Greece
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🗂️ Prediction History
What PredictLix published before each meeting of these teams: frozen pre-match snapshots, not reconstructions from current data. Head-to-head above shows how the teams played; this block shows what we predicted.
| Date | Fixture | Our pick | Probability | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct 2026 | Greece vs Netherlands | Netherlands win (away) | 41.0% | 2.16 | 2–2 | ❌ |
Our site-wide performance record is calculated from the final pre-match snapshot of each fixture. See Our Record.
More: UEFA Nations League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws