Mirassol vs Atletico-MG

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Sun, 15 Nov 2026 • 00:30 UTC+3 • Round 35 • José Maria de Campos Maia • 🌦 25°C, 7 km/h, 0.9mm drizzle

No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

Market	Tip	Odds	Probability	Model EV
Match Result (1X2)	Draw	Current price not available	29.5%	—
Double Chance	1X	Current price not available	65.2%	—
BTTS	Yes	Current price not available	52.5% · No 47.5%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	Current price not available	53.9% · Over 46.1%	—
Correct Score	1-1	Current price not available	14.1%	—
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.5 exp.)	Over 9.5	Current price not available	63.5% · Under 36.5%	—

🧠 Match Preview

Mirassol · Home

Mirassol have drawn two of their last five and failed to score in two of them, including the 0-2 loss at Corinthians. At home they beat Internacional 2-0 and drew 1-1 with Sao Paulo, so their recent home results show they can avoid defeat.

Atletico-MG · Away

Atletico-MG have lost three of their last five, including a 0-1 home defeat to Cruzeiro and a 2-3 loss at Flamengo. Their two wins both came at home, and they failed to score in two of the five.

Mirassol home resilience

The latest H2H was a 3-1 Atletico-MG win, but the only previous meeting in Mirassol finished 2-2. Mirassol's recent home results include a 2-0 win over Internacional and a 1-1 draw with Sao Paulo. Atletico-MG have lost three of their last five, with both wins at home. The evidence supports Draw.

Published 01 Nov 2026 22:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Mirassol 1.27 – 1.25 Atletico-MG · expected total 2.52

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🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Mirassol

Form (last 5)

L D W L D

Goals scored (season avg)1.10

Goals conceded (season avg)1.40

Best league winning streak this season4

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.52

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.61

Elo strength rating1601

Players out15

Atletico-MG

Form (last 5)

L LLWW

Goals scored (season avg)1.30

Goals conceded (season avg)1.20

Best league winning streak this season2

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.62

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.16

Elo strength rating1516

Players out25

MirassolAtletico-MG

L D W L D

L LLWW

Goals scored (season avg)

1.10

1.30

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.40

1.20

Best league winning streak this season

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)

1.52

1.62

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)

2.61

1.16

Elo strength rating

1601

1516

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Mirassol

BTTS

2/6

Over 2.5

1/6

Scored a goal

4/6

No goals conceded

2/6

Atletico-MG

Lost 3 in a row Winless 3

BTTS

2/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored a goal

4/6

No goals conceded

2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A

Mirassol

2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%, last 6) 2nd worst clean sheets (3, season)

Atletico-MG

3rd best defence (1.20 conceded/game, season)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Mirassol at home · Atletico-MG away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Mirassol (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–6D–4L

W 7

D 6

L 4

Played17

Goals scored (avg)1.40

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets3

Failed to score2

Atletico-MG (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–3D–9L

W 4

D 3

L 9

Played16

Goals scored (avg)1.10

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets3

Failed to score8

Mirassol (home)Atletico-MG (away)

W 7

D 6

L 4

W 4

D 3

L 9

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.40

1.10

Goals conceded (avg)

1.30

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

1–1

14.06%

0–0

9.34%

2–2

5.07%

3–3

0.89%

4–4

<0.1%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Atletico-MG 2 wins · 1 draw · Mirassol 0 wins · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 2 of 3

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
17 May 2026	Atletico-MG	3–1	Mirassol	Serie A
28 Sep 2025	Atletico-MG	1–0	Mirassol	Serie A
27 Apr 2025	Mirassol	2–2	Atletico-MG	Serie A

📈 Recent Form

Mirassol

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
31/10	Corinthians	Away	0–2	L
24/10	Sao Paulo	Home	1–1	D
17/10	Internacional	Home	2–0	W
12/10	Bahia	Away	0–1	L
08/10	RB Bragantino	Away	1–1	D
27/09	Uberlandia	Away	4–0	W
19/09	Botafogo	Home	2–0	W
13/09	Vitoria	Home	2–2	D
06/09	Coritiba	Away	2–1	W
03/09	Flamengo	Away	0–2	L

Atletico-MG

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
30/10	Cruzeiro	Home	0–1	L
27/10	Flamengo	Away	2–3	L
22/10	Atletico Torque	Away	0–2	L
18/10	Coritiba	Home	1–0	W
15/10	Atletico Torque	Home	3–0	W
11/10	Santos	Home	2–1	W
09/10	Atletico Paranaense	Away	2–2	D
04/10	RB Bragantino	Home	1–0	W
19/09	Chapecoense-sc	Home	1–1	D
12/09	Fluminense	Home	3–1	W

📊 Season Comparison: Serie A

Mirassol #16 · 37 pts · Atletico-MG #7 · 50 pts

Mirassol

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–10D–14L

W 9

D 10

L 14

Played33

Goals scored (avg)1.10

Goals conceded (avg)1.40

Clean sheets3

Failed to score9

Yellow cards83

Red cards5

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.52

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.61

Corners for (avg)4.20

Penalties (scored/missed)2/2

Atletico-MG

Wins–Draws–Losses14W–8D–11L

W 14

D 8

L 11

Played33

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.20

Clean sheets8

Failed to score10

Yellow cards56

Red cards4

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.62

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.16

Corners for (avg)7.20

Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

MirassolAtletico-MG

W 9

D 10

L 14

W 14

D 8

L 11

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.10

1.30

Goals conceded (avg)

1.40

1.20

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)

1.52

1.62

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)

2.61

1.16

Corners for (avg)

4.20

7.20

Penalties (scored/missed)

2/2

2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Mirassol

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Atletico-MG

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Mirassol

❌ Edson Carioca: Muscle Injury
❌ Eduardo: Injury
❌ Igor Carius: Injury
❌ Yuri Lara: Suspended (Red Card)
❌ Jose Aldo: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Reinaldo: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Negueba: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Neto Moura: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Igor Formiga: Muscle Injury
❌ Alex Muralha: Calf Injury
❌ Walter: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Denilson: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Wallisson: Suspended (Red Card)
❌ Joao Victor: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Bruno Santos: Suspended (Red Card)
❓ Renato Marques (doubtful): Injury

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Andre Luis, Felipe Jonatan, Daniel Borges, Nathan Fogaca, Alesson; not counted as confirmed absences.

Atletico-MG

❌ Lyanco: Achilles Tendon Injury
❌ A. Preciado: Ankle Injury
❌ Alexsander: Injury
❌ M. Cisse: Leg Injury
❌ Maycon: Calf Injury
❌ Natanael: Suspended (Red Card)
❌ Ruan Tressoldi: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Patrick Silva: Injury
❌ Indio: Knee Injury
❌ R. Lodi: Suspended (Red Card)
❌ Cuello: Injury
❌ A. Franco: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Victor Hugo: Hamstring Injury
❌ Gustavo Scarpa: Knee Injury
❌ J. Alonso: International duty
❌ L. Duarte: Hamstring Injury
❌ Igor Gomes: Knee Injury
❌ T. Borbas: Muscle Injury
❌ Everson: Foot Injury
❌ T. Perez: Injury
❌ Reinier: Muscle Injury
❌ K. Castano: International duty
❌ K. Pascini: International duty
❌ Vitao: International duty
❌ Fred: Injury

Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): M. Cassierra (Lacking Match Fitness).

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): I. Roman, Rony, Junior Santos, Vitor Hugo, A. Minda, Hulk; not counted as confirmed absences.

More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws

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