Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Mirassol vs Sao Paulo

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 32 β€’ JosΓ© Maria de Campos Maia β€’ β›ˆ 26.8Β°C, 8 km/h, 1mm thunderstorm

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 79% 42.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 71% 71.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 82% 50.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 53.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 67% 9.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.8 exp.) Over 9.5 64% 54.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Mirassol 1.37 – 0.97 Sao Paulo Β· expected total 2.34

🧠 Match Preview

Mirassol host Sao Paulo at the JosΓ© Maria de Campos Maia on Saturday, with the visitors sitting 10th on 39 points and the hosts 15th on 33 after 30 games apiece. The model leans home: a 42.7 percent win probability at 79 confidence, with the double chance 1X rated at 71.9 percent.

Form is mixed but favours the hosts slightly β€” Mirassol have gone LDWWD across their last five, while Sao Paulo arrive on WLLWD. The goal expectation is low and tilted to the home side, with Mirassol at 1.3715 against Sao Paulo's 0.9655, and recent xG close at 1.22 and 1.29. That points to a tight, low-scoring night: Under 2.5 lands at 53.5 percent and BTTS No at 50.6 percent. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 9.7 percent, with 2-0 and 2-1 close behind. Corners look lively, with an expected 10.8 and Over 9.5 at 54.6 percent.

The value question is where the bookmaker prices drift from the model. If the market shades toward Sao Paulo's bigger name, the home win and the 1X double chance become the obvious plays, and the 1-0 correct score carries the strongest single-line probability. The caveat is real: both squads list enormous injury and doubt columns, and Sao Paulo's recent xG of 1.29 is actually higher than Mirassol's 1.22, so the home edge rests more on venue and table pressure than on attacking superiority. Treat the low-scoring angle as the safer route.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Mirassol

Form (last 5)
LBahia (A) 0–1 Β· 11/10/2026DRB Bragantino (A) 1–1 Β· 07/10/2026WUberlandia (A) 4–0 Β· 27/09/2026WBotafogo (H) 2–0 Β· 19/09/2026DVitoria (H) 2–2 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.44
xG against (recent avg)0.58
Elo strength rating1636
Players out19

Sao Paulo

Form (last 5)
WVitoria (H) 2–1 Β· 11/10/2026LCruzeiro (A) 0–2 Β· 08/10/2026LSantos (H) 1–2 Β· 02/10/2026WInternacional (H) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026DBoca Juniors (H) 1–1 Β· 16/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)0.25
xG against (recent avg)0.46
Elo strength rating1553
Players out33
MirassolSao Paulo
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.50
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
1
4
xG for (recent avg)
0.44
0.25
xG against (recent avg)
0.58
0.46
Elo strength rating
1636
1553
Players out
19
33

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Mirassol

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Sao Paulo

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Mirassol

2nd worst clean sheets (2)

Sao Paulo

3rd best defence (1.20 conceded/game)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Mirassol at home Β· Sao Paulo away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Mirassol (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–5D–4L
W 6
D 5
L 4
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2

Sao Paulo (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–10L
W 2
D 3
L 10
Played15
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets1
Failed to score6
Mirassol (home)Sao Paulo (away)
W 6
D 5
L 4
W 2
D 3
L 10
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.50
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
2
6

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.7%
2–0
7.4%
2–1
7.1%
3–0
3.4%
3–1
3.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Mirassol 4 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Sao Paulo 4 wins Β· avg 3 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

4
2
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
26 Apr 2026 Sao Paulo 1–0 Mirassol Serie A
11 Jan 2026 Mirassol 3–0 Sao Paulo Paulista - A1
19 Oct 2025 Mirassol 3–0 Sao Paulo Serie A
24 May 2025 Sao Paulo 0–2 Mirassol Serie A
05 Feb 2025 Sao Paulo 4–1 Mirassol Paulista - A1
23 Jan 2024 Mirassol 1–1 Sao Paulo Paulista - A1
13 Mar 2022 Mirassol 0–3 Sao Paulo Paulista - A1
17 May 2021 Sao Paulo 4–0 Mirassol Paulista - A1
09 May 2021 Mirassol 1–1 Sao Paulo Paulista - A1
30 Jul 2020 Sao Paulo 2–3 Mirassol Paulista - A1

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Mirassol

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Bahia Away 0–1 L
07/10 RB Bragantino Away 1–1 D
27/09 Uberlandia Away 4–0 W
19/09 Botafogo Home 2–0 W
13/09 Vitoria Home 2–2 D

Sao Paulo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Vitoria Home 2–1 W
08/10 Cruzeiro Away 0–2 L
02/10 Santos Home 1–2 L
20/09 Internacional Home 1–0 W
16/09 Boca Juniors Home 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Mirassol #15 Β· 33 pts β€”  Sao Paulo #10 Β· 39 pts

Mirassol

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–9D–13L
W 8
D 9
L 13
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score8
Yellow cards76
Red cards4
xG for (avg)0.44
xG against (avg)0.58
Corners for (avg)6.50
Penalties (scored/missed)2/1

Sao Paulo

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–6D–13L
W 11
D 6
L 13
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets6
Failed to score7
Yellow cards63
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.25
xG against (avg)0.46
Corners for (avg)5.20
Penalties (scored/missed)6/0
MirassolSao Paulo
W 8
D 9
L 13
W 11
D 6
L 13
Played
30
30
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
1.20
Clean sheets
2
6
Failed to score
8
7
Yellow cards
76
63
Red cards
4
2
xG for (avg)
0.44
0.25
xG against (avg)
0.58
0.46
Corners for (avg)
6.50
5.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/1
6/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Mirassol

7
0-15
7
16-30
8
5
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
9
61-75
5
13
76-90
7
scored conceded

Sao Paulo

1
0-15
5
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
3
14
46-60
7
3
61-75
10
8
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Mirassol

  • ❌ Andre Luis β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Edson Carioca β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Felipe Jonatan β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Daniel Borges β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Eduardo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Igor Carius β€” Injury
  • ❌ Yuri Lara β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Jose Aldo β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Reinaldo β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Negueba β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Neto Moura β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Igor Formiga β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Nathan Fogaca β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Alex Muralha β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ Alesson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Walter β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Denilson β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Wallisson β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Joao Victor β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❓ Renato Marques (doubtful) β€” Injury

Sao Paulo

  • ❌ Andre Silva β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Ryan Francisco β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Alisson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Danielzinho β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucca Marques β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Ramon β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Moura β€” Broken rib
  • ❌ D. Bobadilla β€” International duty
  • ❌ Carlos Coronel β€” Inactive
  • ❌ E. Diaz β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Franco β€” Injury
  • ❌ G. Tapia β€” International duty
  • ❌ Paulinho β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Jonathan Calleri β€” Contusion
  • ❌ Luciano β€” Overload
  • ❌ Pablo Maia β€” Face Injury
  • ❌ Sabino β€” Overload
  • ❌ Djhordney β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Marcos Antonio β€” Injury
  • ❌ R. Toloi β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Ferreira β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Maik β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Robert Arboleda β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Cauly β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Wendell β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Victor Sa β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Luis Osorio β€” Red Card
  • ❌ N. Bosshardt β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Buta β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ D. Duarte β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ P. dos Santos β€” International duty
  • ❌ Iago Borduchi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Rafael β€” Inactive

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws