Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Flamengo vs Atletico-MG

Next match: Mon, 26 Oct 2026 β€’ 23:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 32 β€’ EstΓ‘dio do MaracanΓ£ β€’ 🌦 21.6Β°C, 7 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 87% 63.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 78% 80.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 81% 48.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-0 65% 8.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.7 exp.) Over 9.5 66% 56.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Flamengo 1.92 – 0.92 Atletico-MG Β· expected total 2.84

🧠 Match Preview

Flamengo welcome Atletico-MG to the EstΓ‘dio do MaracanΓ£ for Round 32 of Serie A, and the stakes are clear: the hosts sit top on 64 points from 30 games, while the visitors are seventh on 47. A win for Flamengo tightens their grip on the title race; Atletico are scrapping to stay in the continental places.

The model leans heavily on Flamengo's form. Both sides arrive unbeaten across their last five β€” Flamengo's WDWDW against Atletico's WWDWD β€” but the underlying numbers separate them. Flamengo's recent expected goals sit at 2.42 against Atletico's 2.07, and the match-level expected goals read 1.9208 for the hosts versus 0.9166 for the visitors. The table gap and home advantage at the MaracanΓ£ reinforce that edge.

The headline tip is a home win at 63.8 percent with confidence of 87. Double chance 1X lands at 80.6 percent, a safer route if you want to absorb a surprise. Both teams to score is rated at 48.6 percent, so the model is not convinced Atletico find the net, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 47.8 percent β€” essentially a coin flip. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 8.7 percent, with 1-0 and 2-1 close behind. Corners offer a firmer angle: Over 9.5 is priced at 56.5 percent with 11.7 expected.

The honest caveat is the injury picture β€” both squads list extensive absences, and with Flamengo's 63.8 percent home probability carrying no quoted bookmaker odds here, the value case rests on the model alone. Check the market price before committing.

Updated 15 Oct 2026, 10:11 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Flamengo

Form (last 5)
WFluminense (H) 1–0 Β· 11/10/2026DSantos (A) 2–2 Β· 08/10/2026WRB Bragantino (H) 2–1 Β· 20/09/2026DIndependiente del Valle (H) 1–1 Β· 18/09/2026WCorinthians (H) 2–1 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)0.75
xG against (recent avg)0.11
Elo strength rating1773
Players out22

Atletico-MG

Form (last 5)
WAtletico Torque (H) 3–0 Β· 14/10/2026WSantos (H) 2–1 Β· 11/10/2026DAtletico Paranaense (A) 2–2 Β· 08/10/2026WRB Bragantino (H) 1–0 Β· 03/10/2026DChapecoense-sc (H) 1–1 Β· 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.11
xG against (recent avg)0.47
Elo strength rating1527
Players out32
FlamengoAtletico-MG
Goals scored (season avg)
1.90
1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.80
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
5
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.75
1.11
xG against (recent avg)
0.11
0.47
Elo strength rating
1773
1527
Players out
22
32

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Flamengo

Unbeaten 9
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Atletico-MG

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 6
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Flamengo

Best attack (1.90 goals/game) 2nd best defence (0.80 conceded/game) Best clean sheets (13)

Atletico-MG

3rd best defence (1.20 conceded/game)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Flamengo at home Β· Atletico-MG away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Flamengo (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–3D–1L
W 11
D 3
L 1
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets8
Failed to score1

Atletico-MG (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–3D–8L
W 4
D 3
L 8
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets3
Failed to score8
Flamengo (home)Atletico-MG (away)
W 11
D 3
L 1
W 4
D 3
L 8
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.70
1.20
Clean sheets
8
3
Failed to score
1
8

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
8.7%
1–0
8.2%
2–1
8%
3–0
5.6%
3–1
5.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Atletico-MG 2 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Flamengo 5 wins Β· avg 2.4 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 9

2
2
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
26 Apr 2026 Atletico-MG 0–4 Flamengo Serie A
26 Nov 2025 Atletico-MG 1–1 Flamengo Serie A
01 Aug 2025 Flamengo 0–1 Atletico-MG Copa Do Brasil
27 Jul 2025 Flamengo 1–0 Atletico-MG Serie A
13 Nov 2024 Flamengo 0–0 Atletico-MG Serie A
10 Nov 2024 Atletico-MG 0–1 Flamengo Copa Do Brasil
03 Nov 2024 Flamengo 3–1 Atletico-MG Copa Do Brasil
04 Jul 2024 Atletico-MG 2–4 Flamengo Serie A
29 Nov 2023 Flamengo 0–3 Atletico-MG Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Flamengo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Fluminense Home 1–0 W
08/10 Santos Away 2–2 D
20/09 RB Bragantino Home 2–1 W
18/09 Independiente del Valle Home 1–1 D
13/09 Corinthians Home 2–1 W

Atletico-MG

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
14/10 Atletico Torque Home 3–0 W
11/10 Santos Home 2–1 W
08/10 Atletico Paranaense Away 2–2 D
03/10 RB Bragantino Home 1–0 W
19/09 Chapecoense-sc Home 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Flamengo #1 Β· 64 pts β€”  Atletico-MG #7 Β· 47 pts

Flamengo

Wins–Draws–Losses19W–7D–4L
W 19
D 7
L 4
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets13
Failed to score2
Yellow cards64
Red cards7
xG for (avg)0.75
xG against (avg)0.11
Corners for (avg)7.10
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0

Atletico-MG

Wins–Draws–Losses13W–8D–9L
W 13
D 8
L 9
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets7
Failed to score9
Yellow cards53
Red cards4
xG for (avg)1.11
xG against (avg)0.47
Corners for (avg)5.80
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
FlamengoAtletico-MG
W 19
D 7
L 4
W 13
D 8
L 9
Played
30
30
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.20
Clean sheets
13
7
Failed to score
2
9
Yellow cards
64
53
Red cards
7
4
xG for (avg)
0.75
1.11
xG against (avg)
0.11
0.47
Corners for (avg)
7.10
5.80
Penalties (scored/missed)
3/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Flamengo

1
0-15
12
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
15
3
61-75
10
9
76-90
12
scored conceded

Atletico-MG

4
0-15
3
3
16-30
9
5
31-45
7
4
46-60
2
8
61-75
10
12
76-90
9
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Flamengo

  • ❌ Danilo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Paqueta β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Luiz Araujo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Niguez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ N. de la Cruz β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Jorginho β€” Red Card
  • ❌ G. Varela β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Bruno Henrique β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Leo Pereira β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ G. Plata β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ E. Pulgar β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Alex Sandro β€” Injury
  • ❌ Evertton Araujo β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Everton β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Carrascal β€” Red Card
  • ❌ G. de Arrascaeta β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ Leo Ortiz β€” Injury
  • ❌ Vitao β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Freitas β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Valencia β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Samuel Lino β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Ayrton Lucas β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❓ Daniel Thuram (doubtful) β€” Injury
  • ❓ Ryan Roberto (doubtful) β€” Injury

Atletico-MG

  • ❌ Lyanco β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ A. Preciado β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ I. Roman β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Rony β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Alexsander β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Cassierra β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ Junior Santos β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Cisse β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ Maycon β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ Natanael β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Vitor Hugo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Ruan Tressoldi β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Minda β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Patrick Silva β€” Injury
  • ❌ Indio β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Lodi β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Cuello β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Franco β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Hulk β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Victor Hugo β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Gustavo Scarpa β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Alonso β€” International duty
  • ❌ L. Duarte β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Igor Gomes β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ T. Borbas β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Everson β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ T. Perez β€” Injury
  • ❌ Reinier β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ K. Castano β€” International duty
  • ❌ K. Pascini β€” International duty
  • ❌ Vitao β€” International duty
  • ❌ Fred β€” Injury

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws