Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro

Next match: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 β€’ 00:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 30 β€’ Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques β€’ β˜€οΈ 18.1Β°C, 3 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 77% 39.1% 2.18 1xBet 46% -6.9 pp
Double Chance 12 68% 67.8% 1.30 William Hill 74.3% -6.5 pp
BTTS Yes 83% 52.9% 1.62 Bet365 58.7% -5.8 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 48% 1.77 1xBet 54.8% -6.8 pp
Correct Score 1-0 62% 6.7% 9.50 Bet365 5.4% +1.3 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.9 exp.) Over 9.5 64% 54.9% 1.57 Betfair 60.8% -5.9 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: RB Bragantino 1.23 – 1.29 Cruzeiro Β· expected total 2.52

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Tuesday's Serie A clash at Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques sees 11th-placed RB Bragantino, on 37 points from 29 games, host a Cruzeiro side sitting 5th on 48 points. The visitors arrive with the stronger recent record, having won three of their last five (WWLWL), while Bragantino have stumbled through a winless DLLDL run.

The model leans toward the home side despite that form gap, pricing a Bragantino win at 39.1% with confidence of 77 and odds of 2.18. Recent expected goals tell a more balanced story: Bragantino have created 1.32 xG lately against Cruzeiro's 1.94, and the match-level figures sit almost level at 1.2307 for the hosts and 1.2879 for the visitors. Both squads are heavily depleted, with lengthy injury lists on each side and Rodriguinho and L. Villalba both doubtful.

The headline tip is a home win, but the double chance covering draw or away lands at 67.8%, which is where the safer angle sits. Both teams to score is favoured at 52.9% (odds 1.62), and Over 2.5 goals comes in at 48% (odds 1.77). Corners look interesting, with an expected 10.9 and Over 9.5 priced at 54.9%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 8.64%, followed by 2-1 at 7.86% and 2-0 at 6.11%.

The honest caveat: Bragantino's DLLDL form and Cruzeiro's superior table position sit awkwardly against a home-win tip, so the 2.18 price carries real risk. Treat the double chance as the more defensible play.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

RB Bragantino

Form (last 5)
DMirassol (H) 1–1 Β· 07/10/2026LAtletico-MG (A) 0–1 Β· 03/10/2026LFlamengo (A) 1–2 Β· 20/09/2026DBotafogo (A) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026LBahia (H) 2–3 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.92
xG against (recent avg)1.07
Elo strength rating1482
Players out26

Cruzeiro

Form (last 5)
WSao Paulo (H) 2–0 Β· 08/10/2026WVitoria (A) 3–1 Β· 20/09/2026LSantos (A) 1–2 Β· 13/09/2026WAtletico Paranaense (H) 3–1 Β· 06/09/2026LAtletico-MG (A) 1–2 Β· 02/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.07
xG against (recent avg)1.12
Elo strength rating1661
Players out26
RB BragantinoCruzeiro
Goals scored (season avg)
1.20
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.10
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
3
4
xG for (recent avg)
0.92
1.07
xG against (recent avg)
1.07
1.12
Elo strength rating
1482
1661
Players out
26
26

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

RB Bragantino

Winless 6
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Cruzeiro

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

RB Bragantino

3rd best defence (1.10 conceded/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Cruzeiro

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) 3rd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

RB Bragantino at home Β· Cruzeiro away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

RB Bragantino (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–3D–5L
W 6
D 3
L 5
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets5
Failed to score3

Cruzeiro (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–2D–6L
W 6
D 2
L 6
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
RB Bragantino (home)Cruzeiro (away)
W 6
D 3
L 5
W 6
D 2
L 6
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
1.70
Clean sheets
5
2
Failed to score
3
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
6.7%
2–1
6.1%
2–0
4.7%
3–1
2.5%
3–0
1.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Cruzeiro 6 wins Β· 3 draws Β· RB Bragantino 1 win Β· avg 2.7 goals Β· BTTS in 7 of 10

6
3
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
12 Apr 2026 Cruzeiro 2–1 RB Bragantino Serie A
21 Sep 2025 Cruzeiro 2–1 RB Bragantino Serie A
20 Apr 2025 RB Bragantino 1–0 Cruzeiro Serie A
22 Mar 2025 RB Bragantino 1–1 Cruzeiro Friendlies Clubs
01 Dec 2024 RB Bragantino 1–1 Cruzeiro Serie A
13 Jul 2024 Cruzeiro 2–1 RB Bragantino Serie A
03 Sep 2023 Cruzeiro 0–0 RB Bragantino Serie A
29 Apr 2023 RB Bragantino 0–3 Cruzeiro Serie A
29 Mar 2023 Cruzeiro 3–2 RB Bragantino Friendlies Clubs
29 Mar 2023 RB Bragantino 2–3 Cruzeiro Friendlies Clubs

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

RB Bragantino

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
07/10 Mirassol Home 1–1 D
03/10 Atletico-MG Away 0–1 L
20/09 Flamengo Away 1–2 L
12/09 Botafogo Away 1–1 D
05/09 Bahia Home 2–3 L

Cruzeiro

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
08/10 Sao Paulo Home 2–0 W
20/09 Vitoria Away 3–1 W
13/09 Santos Away 1–2 L
06/09 Atletico Paranaense Home 3–1 W
02/09 Atletico-MG Away 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

RB Bragantino #11 Β· 37 pts β€”  Cruzeiro #5 Β· 48 pts

RB Bragantino

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–7D–12L
W 10
D 7
L 12
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets8
Failed to score7
Yellow cards77
Red cards5
xG for (avg)0.92
xG against (avg)1.07
Corners for (avg)6.10
Penalties (scored/missed)2/3

Cruzeiro

Wins–Draws–Losses14W–6D–9L
W 14
D 6
L 9
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets6
Failed to score4
Yellow cards72
Red cards3
xG for (avg)1.07
xG against (avg)1.12
Corners for (avg)3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)4/1
RB BragantinoCruzeiro
W 10
D 7
L 12
W 14
D 6
L 9
Played
29
29
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
1.40
Clean sheets
8
6
Failed to score
7
4
Yellow cards
77
72
Red cards
5
3
xG for (avg)
0.92
1.07
xG against (avg)
1.07
1.12
Corners for (avg)
6.10
3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/3
4/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

RB Bragantino

4
0-15
3
7
16-30
4
4
31-45
8
10
46-60
7
6
61-75
3
6
76-90
5
scored conceded

Cruzeiro

6
0-15
5
6
16-30
5
7
31-45
8
8
46-60
7
2
61-75
8
10
76-90
12
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

RB Bragantino

  • ❌ Jhon Jhon β€” Inactive
  • ❌ I. Pitta β€” Inactive
  • ❌ G. Rodriguez β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Vanderlan β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Alix Vinicius β€” Injury
  • ❌ Eduardo Sasha β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Fabricio β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Gabriel β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gustavo Marques β€” Suspended
  • ❌ A. Sant'Anna β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Fabinho β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Fernando Santos β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Juninho Capixaba β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Lucas Barbosa β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Davi Gomes β€” Inactive
  • ❌ I. Sosa β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ J. Herrera β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Eduardo Santos β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ H. Mosquera β€” Inactive
  • ❌ R. Tavares β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Matheus Fernandes β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Pedro Henrique β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Hurtado β€” International duty
  • ❌ Bruninho β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Caue Nascimento β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Wallace Yan β€” Red Card
  • ❓ Rodriguinho (doubtful) β€” Injury

Cruzeiro

  • ❌ Marquinhos β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Matheus Cunha β€” Inactive
  • ❌ L. Sinisterra β€” Injury
  • ❌ Chico β€” Injury
  • ❌ Jonathan Jesus β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Kaua Moraes β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Bruno Rodrigues β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Kaio Jorge β€” Inactive
  • ❌ L. Romero β€” Inactive
  • ❌ William Furtado β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Cassio β€” Injury
  • ❌ Gerson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Joao Marcelo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Matheus Pereira β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Fabricio Bruno β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Fagner β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Silva β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ N. Villarreal β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Kaua Prates β€” Inactive
  • ❌ K. Arroyo β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Kaiki β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Matheus Henrique β€” Health problems
  • ❌ Gabriel Pec β€” Broken Leg
  • ❌ Wanderson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Kenji β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Leo Aragao β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❓ L. Villalba (doubtful) β€” Ankle Injury

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws

Referee: Savio Pereira Sampaio