Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Fluminense vs Internacional

Next match: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 β€’ 22:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 33 β€’ EstΓ‘dio do MaracanΓ£ β€’ β˜€οΈ 21.9Β°C, 7 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 81% 47.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 75% 76.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 81% 49.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 51.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 73% 13% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8 exp.) Under 9.5 65% 55.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Fluminense 1.30 – 0.74 Internacional Β· expected total 2.04

🧠 Match Preview

Fluminense host Internacional at the MaracanΓ£ on Thursday with plenty at stake at opposite ends of the Serie A table. The home side sit fifth on 51 points from 31 games, while Internacional are 17th on 32 points from the same number of matches, so this is a clash between a team chasing continental qualification and one fighting to keep its head above the relegation scrap.

The model leans clearly toward the hosts. Fluminense's recent form reads LLLWW, Internacional's DWLWL, and the expected-goals split is telling: 1.2964 for the home side against 0.7434 for the visitors, with recent xG figures of 1.34 and 1.06 respectively. Both squads are heavily depleted by injuries, which adds noise, but the underlying numbers still point one way. The home win is priced at 47.7 percent with a confidence of 81, and the double chance 1X lands at 76.8 percent, the safer route if you want to avoid a single-result swing.

Goals look scarce. Under 2.5 carries 51.9 percent, BTTS No sits at 49.7 percent, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15.61 percent, followed by 2-0 at 10.93 and 2-1 at 8.13. Corners are also tipped low, with an expected 8 and Under 9.5 at 55.7 percent. The honest caveat: no bookmaker odds were supplied, so value can't be measured against the market here, and with both injury lists this long, lineups could shift the picture before kickoff. Treat the probabilities as a guide, not a guarantee.

Updated 19 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Fluminense

Form (last 5)
LSantos (H) 1–2 Β· 18/10/2026LPalmeiras (H) 1–2 Β· 15/10/2026LFlamengo (A) 0–1 Β· 11/10/2026WCoritiba (H) 4–0 Β· 09/10/2026WCorinthians (A) 3–1 Β· 20/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.13
xG against (recent avg)1.55
Elo strength rating1597
Players out26

Internacional

Form (last 5)
DGremio (A) 1–1 Β· 11/10/2026WCorinthians (H) 2–1 Β· 07/10/2026LSao Paulo (A) 0–1 Β· 20/09/2026WChapecoense-sc (A) 2–1 Β· 12/09/2026LSantos (H) 2–3 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.86
xG against (recent avg)1.28
Elo strength rating1374
Players out24
FluminenseInternacional
Goals scored (season avg)
1.60
1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
1.30
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.13
0.86
xG against (recent avg)
1.55
1.28
Elo strength rating
1597
1374
Players out
26
24

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Fluminense

Lost 3 in a row Winless 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Internacional

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Fluminense

3rd best attack (1.60 goals/game) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Internacional

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Fluminense at home Β· Internacional away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Fluminense (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–3D–1L
W 11
D 3
L 1
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets5
Failed to score1

Internacional (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–6D–6L
W 3
D 6
L 6
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets2
Failed to score5
Fluminense (home)Internacional (away)
W 11
D 3
L 1
W 3
D 6
L 6
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.90
1.40
Clean sheets
5
2
Failed to score
1
5

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
13%
2–0
9.1%
2–1
6.8%
3–0
3.9%
3–1
2.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Fluminense 4 wins Β· 4 draws Β· Internacional 2 wins Β· avg 2.1 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

4
4
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
03 May 2026 Internacional 2–0 Fluminense Serie A
25 Oct 2025 Fluminense 1–0 Internacional Serie A
07 Aug 2025 Fluminense 1–1 Internacional Copa Do Brasil
31 Jul 2025 Internacional 1–2 Fluminense Copa Do Brasil
01 Jun 2025 Internacional 0–2 Fluminense Serie A
08 Nov 2024 Internacional 2–0 Fluminense Serie A
04 Jul 2024 Fluminense 1–1 Internacional Serie A
08 Nov 2023 Internacional 0–0 Fluminense Serie A
05 Oct 2023 Internacional 1–2 Fluminense CONMEBOL Libertadores
28 Sep 2023 Fluminense 2–2 Internacional CONMEBOL Libertadores

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Fluminense

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18/10 Santos Home 1–2 L
15/10 Palmeiras Home 1–2 L
11/10 Flamengo Away 0–1 L
09/10 Coritiba Home 4–0 W
20/09 Corinthians Away 3–1 W

Internacional

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Gremio Away 1–1 D
07/10 Corinthians Home 2–1 W
20/09 Sao Paulo Away 0–1 L
12/09 Chapecoense-sc Away 2–1 W
06/09 Santos Home 2–3 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Fluminense #5 Β· 51 pts β€”  Internacional #17 Β· 32 pts

Fluminense

Wins–Draws–Losses14W–9D–8L
W 14
D 9
L 8
Played31
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets6
Failed to score4
Yellow cards75
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.13
xG against (avg)1.55
Corners for (avg)1.70
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Internacional

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–11D–13L
W 7
D 11
L 13
Played31
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets6
Failed to score9
Yellow cards76
Red cards3
xG for (avg)0.86
xG against (avg)1.28
Corners for (avg)3.90
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
FluminenseInternacional
W 14
D 9
L 8
W 7
D 11
L 13
Played
31
31
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.30
Clean sheets
6
6
Failed to score
4
9
Yellow cards
75
76
Red cards
2
3
xG for (avg)
1.13
0.86
xG against (avg)
1.55
1.28
Corners for (avg)
1.70
3.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Fluminense

6
0-15
2
1
16-30
8
5
31-45
8
6
46-60
8
9
61-75
6
10
76-90
16
scored conceded

Internacional

6
0-15
3
8
16-30
7
3
31-45
3
10
46-60
6
4
61-75
5
8
76-90
8
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Fluminense

  • ❌ G. Cano β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Hercules β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Y. Soteldo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Everaldo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Savarino β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Nonato β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Canobbio β€” Red Card
  • ❌ F. Bernal β€” Injury
  • ❌ PH Ganso β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Matheus Reis β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ L. Acosta β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Martinelli β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Alisson β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Ignacio β€” Broken Hand
  • ❌ R. Castillo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Freytes β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Vitor Eudes β€” Inactive
  • ❌ John Kennedy β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. Millan β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ Guilherme Arana β€” Injury
  • ❌ Thiago Silva β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ Guga β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Igor Rabello β€” Injury
  • ❌ Samuel Xavier β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ Hulk β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Rene β€” Inactive
  • ❓ Jemmes (doubtful) β€” Inactive

Internacional

  • ❌ Richard β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Thiago Maia β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Rodriguez β€” Injury
  • ❌ Bruno Tabata β€” Inactive
  • ❌ R. Villagra β€” Injury
  • ❌ Kayky β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Paulinho Paula β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ S. Rochet β€” International duty
  • ❌ F. Torres β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Vitinho β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Bernabei β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ G. Mercado β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Ronaldo β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Carbonero β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Joao Victor β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Matheus Bahia β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Allex β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Bruno Gomes β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ B. Aguirre β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Calebe β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ A. Sanabria β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Alan Patrick β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Anthoni β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ G. Maripan β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❓ B. Arhin (doubtful) β€” Injury
  • ❓ Victor Gabriel (doubtful) β€” Injury

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws