Fluminense vs Santos

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • Round 31 • 🌦 23.1°C, 17 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home 2.35 → 2.07 ▼12%	81%	49.4%	2.07	Betano	48.5%	+0.9 pp
Double Chance	1X	74%	76.1%	1.33	Bet365	74.4%	+1.7 pp
BTTS	Yes	80%	48.2%	1.80	Bet365	52.6%	-4.4 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	81%	49.1%	2.02	Betano	48.9%	+0.2 pp
Correct Score	1-0	65%	8.7%	7.50	William Hill	6.7%	+2 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.7 exp.)	Over 9.5	61%	52.4%	1.67	Bet365	55.7%	-3.3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Fluminense 1.65 – 0.97 Santos · expected total 2.62

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Fluminense sit third on 51 points from 29 games and host a Santos side eighth on 42 points from 30, so the stakes are clear: the hosts are protecting a top-three cushion, the visitors are chasing the pack. The model leans home, giving Fluminense a 49.4 percent win probability at odds of 2.07, with confidence rated 81. The double chance 1X lands at 76.1 percent, the safest anchor on the card.

Form splits sharply. Fluminense arrive on WWLLW, while Santos are unbeaten across their last five at DWWWW. Yet the goal projections favour the hosts: 1.6534 expected goals against 0.9666 for Santos, though recent xG reads 1.67 home and 1.74 away, a reminder that Santos are creating more than their season baseline suggests. The head-to-head is tight and low-scoring, with 1-0 Fluminense the model's pick at 8.7 percent and the top correct-score lines all favouring the hosts.

Both teams to score sits at 48.2 percent, priced at 1.8, while Over 2.5 goals is 49.1 percent at 2.02 — neither clears the bar convincingly, so the value may hide in the home win and the 1X cover rather than the goals markets. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 is tipped at 52.4 percent with 9.7 expected.

The honest caveat is the team news. Both squads list enormous injury and doubt columns, and with so many regulars flagged, the lineups could shift the balance well beyond what these numbers capture. Treat the 2.07 home price as fair only if the hosts field a recognisable side.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Fluminense

Form (last 5)

WCoritiba (H) 4–0 · 09/10/2026 WCorinthians (A) 3–1 · 20/09/2026LPlatense (A) 1–2 · 15/09/2026LAtletico-MG (A) 1–3 · 12/09/2026WPlatense (H) 2–0 · 08/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.70

Goals conceded (season avg)1.20

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)0.81

xG against (recent avg)1.09

Elo strength rating1620

Players out25

Santos

Form (last 5)

DFlamengo (H) 2–2 · 08/10/2026 WSao Paulo (A) 2–1 · 02/10/2026 WRemo (A) 2–1 · 19/09/2026 WCruzeiro (H) 2–1 · 13/09/2026WAtletico-MG (H) 2–0 · 09/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.60

Goals conceded (season avg)1.50

Win streak (best this season)5

xG for (recent avg)0.68

xG against (recent avg)0.60

Elo strength rating1537

Players out30

FluminenseSantos

WCoritiba (H) 4–0 · 09/10/2026 WCorinthians (A) 3–1 · 20/09/2026LPlatense (A) 1–2 · 15/09/2026LAtletico-MG (A) 1–3 · 12/09/2026WPlatense (H) 2–0 · 08/09/2026

DFlamengo (H) 2–2 · 08/10/2026 WSao Paulo (A) 2–1 · 02/10/2026 WRemo (A) 2–1 · 19/09/2026 WCruzeiro (H) 2–1 · 13/09/2026WAtletico-MG (H) 2–0 · 09/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.70

1.60

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.20

1.50

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.81

0.68

xG against (recent avg)

1.09

0.60

Elo strength rating

1620

1537

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Fluminense

Won 2 in a row

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

3/6

Santos

Unbeaten 8

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Serie A

Fluminense

2nd best attack (1.70 goals/game)

Santos

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) 3rd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Fluminense at home · Santos away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Fluminense (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–3D–1L

W 11

D 3

L 1

Played15

Goals scored (avg)1.90

Goals conceded (avg)0.90

Clean sheets5

Failed to score1

Santos (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–4D–5L

W 5

D 4

L 5

Played14

Goals scored (avg)1.60

Goals conceded (avg)1.60

Clean sheets3

Failed to score1

Fluminense (home)Santos (away)

W 11

D 3

L 1

W 5

D 4

L 5

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.90

1.60

Goals conceded (avg)

0.90

1.60

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

8.7%

2–0

2–1

7.7%

3–0

4.4%

3–1

4.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Fluminense 5 wins · 4 draws · Santos 1 win · avg 1.9 goals · BTTS in 3 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
19 Apr 2026	Santos	2–3	Fluminense	Serie A
31 Aug 2025	Santos	0–0	Fluminense	Serie A
13 Apr 2025	Fluminense	1–0	Santos	Serie A
29 Nov 2023	Santos	0–3	Fluminense	Serie A
29 Jul 2023	Fluminense	1–0	Santos	Serie A
01 Aug 2022	Santos	2–2	Fluminense	Serie A
09 Apr 2022	Fluminense	0–0	Santos	Serie A
27 Oct 2021	Santos	2–0	Fluminense	Serie A
17 Jun 2021	Fluminense	1–0	Santos	Serie A
21 Feb 2021	Santos	1–1	Fluminense	Serie A

📈 Recent Form

Fluminense

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
09/10	Coritiba	Home	4–0	W
20/09	Corinthians	Away	3–1	W
15/09	Platense	Away	1–2	L
12/09	Atletico-MG	Away	1–3	L
08/09	Platense	Home	2–0	W

Santos

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
08/10	Flamengo	Home	2–2	D
02/10	Sao Paulo	Away	2–1	W
19/09	Remo	Away	2–1	W
13/09	Cruzeiro	Home	2–1	W
09/09	Atletico-MG	Home	2–0	W

📊 Season Comparison — Serie A

Fluminense #3 · 51 pts — Santos #8 · 42 pts

Fluminense

Wins–Draws–Losses14W–9D–6L

W 14

D 9

L 6

Played29

Goals scored (avg)1.70

Goals conceded (avg)1.20

Clean sheets6

Failed to score3

Yellow cards71

Red cards2

xG for (avg)0.81

xG against (avg)1.09

Corners for (avg)1.70

Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Santos

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–9D–10L

W 11

D 9

L 10

Played30

Goals scored (avg)1.60

Goals conceded (avg)1.50

Clean sheets6

Failed to score3

Yellow cards88

Red cards4

xG for (avg)0.68

xG against (avg)0.60

Corners for (avg)6.30

Penalties (scored/missed)8/0

FluminenseSantos

W 14

D 9

L 6

W 11

D 9

L 10

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.70

1.60

Goals conceded (avg)

1.20

1.50

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.81

0.68

xG against (avg)

1.09

0.60

Corners for (avg)

1.70

6.30

Penalties (scored/missed)

2/0

8/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Fluminense

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Santos

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Fluminense

❌ G. Cano — Inactive
❌ Hercules — Inactive
❌ Y. Soteldo — Inactive
❌ Everaldo — Inactive
❌ J. Savarino — Inactive
❌ Nonato — Injury
❌ A. Canobbio — Red Card
❌ F. Bernal — Injury
❌ PH Ganso — Inactive
❌ Matheus Reis — Knee Injury
❌ L. Acosta — Yellow Cards
❌ Martinelli — Yellow Cards
❌ Alisson — Yellow Cards
❌ Ignacio — Broken Hand
❌ R. Castillo — Inactive
❌ J. Freytes — Yellow Cards
❌ Vitor Eudes — Inactive
❌ John Kennedy — Red Card
❌ J. Millan — Thigh Injury
❌ Guilherme Arana — Injury
❌ Thiago Silva — Thigh Injury
❌ Guga — Yellow Cards
❌ Igor Rabello — Injury
❌ Samuel Xavier — Shoulder Injury
❌ Hulk — Inactive
❓ Jemmes (doubtful) — Inactive
❓ Rene (doubtful) — Inactive

Santos

❌ A. Frias — Inactive
❌ Mayke — Inactive
❌ Neymar — Knee Injury
❌ Thaciano — Inactive
❌ Tiquinho Soares — Inactive
❌ Willian Arao — Inactive
❌ Gustavo Henrique — Muscle Injury
❌ A. Duarte — Inactive
❌ Gabriel Barbosa — Inactive
❌ Ze Rafael — Inactive
❌ Luan Peres — Red Card
❌ Vinicius Lira — Knee Injury
❌ L. Diaz — Loan agreement
❌ Gabriel Menino — Hamstring Injury
❌ Rodrigo Falcao — Injury
❌ Igor Vinicius — Inactive
❌ Rony — Yellow Cards
❌ A. Barreal — Yellow Cards
❌ G. Escobar — Yellow Cards
❌ T. Rincon — Health problems
❌ Gabriel Brazao — Inactive
❌ Joao Schmidt — Hamstring Injury
❌ B. Rollheiser — Muscle Injury
❌ Moises — Inactive
❌ Lucas Verissimo — Calf Injury
❌ Pepe Fermino — Muscle Injury
❌ Gabriel Bontempo — Injury
❌ Coutinho — Lacking Match Fitness
❌ Everton — Yellow Cards
❌ Arthur Melo — Muscle Injury

More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws