Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Wed, 04 Nov 2026 • 02:20 UTC+3 • Clausura - 17 • Estadio Departamental Libertad • 🌦 12.9°C, 3 km/h, 0.4mm drizzle
Snapshotted at publish: No at 1.83 (58.5%, Model EV +7.1%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 03 Nov 2026 10:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.67 → 1.6 ▼4% | Betano1.60 | 62.1% | -0.6% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betano1.16 | 85.5% | -0.8% |
| BTTS | No | William Hill1.80 | 58.5% · Yes 41.5% | +5.3% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Pinnacle1.90 | 54% · Over 46% | +2.6% |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | Bet3656.50 | 14.9% | -3.2% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 1xBet1.58 | 61.6% · Over 38.4% | -2.7% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Deportivo Pasto · Home
Deportivo Pasto have scored only 2 goals across their last five matches, failing to score in 3 of them, yet the model gives them 1.55 expected goals here. The latest H2H, a 2-3 win at Jaguares on 17 Apr 2026, shows Pasto can find goals in this matchup.
Jaguares · Away
Jaguares have scored 6 in their last five but conceded 9, including a 1-4 loss at Millonarios. Their recent xG for of 0.76 sits well below Pasto's 1.05, and the model gives them just 0.72 expected goals.
Pasto's H2H Edge
The three supplied H2H meetings frame this fixture: a 0-0 in 3 Aug 2024 and a 1-1 in 5 Feb 2024 both finished level, while the latest, a 2-3 Pasto win at Jaguares, is the one that broke that pattern. Pasto's recent home form is modest, with a 0-1 loss to Alianza Valledupar and a 0-0 with Fortaleza FC, but Jaguares have conceded 9 in five and lost 1-4 at Millonarios. The 1-0 correct score fits a low-scoring home edge. The evidence supports Deportivo Pasto win.
Published 03 Nov 2026 10:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Deportivo Pasto 1.55 – 0.72 Jaguares · expected total 2.27
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Deportivo Pasto
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Deportivo Pasto
Jaguares
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Primera A
Deportivo Pasto
Jaguares
Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Deportivo Pasto at home · Jaguares away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Deportivo Pasto (home)
Jaguares (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Deportivo Pasto 6 wins · 2 draws · Jaguares 2 wins · avg 1.9 goals · BTTS in 3 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Jaguares | 2–3 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 04 Aug 2024 | Jaguares | 0–0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 06 Feb 2024 | Deportivo Pasto | 1–1 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 21 Oct 2023 | Jaguares | 1–0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 09 Sep 2023 | Deportivo Pasto | 1–0 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 08 May 2023 | Deportivo Pasto | 4–0 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 28 Mar 2023 | Jaguares | 0–1 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 06 Sep 2022 | Deportivo Pasto | 2–1 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 17 Jul 2022 | Jaguares | 0–1 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 09 Mar 2022 | Jaguares | 1–0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
📈 Recent Form
Deportivo Pasto
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Bucaramanga | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 26/10 | Deportes Tolima | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 23/10 | Atletico Nacional | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 20/10 | Alianza Valledupar | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 04/10 | Fortaleza FC | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 26/09 | Chico | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 20/09 | Once Caldas | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 15/09 | America de Cali | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 10/09 | Independiente Medellin | Home | 1–4 | L |
| 06/09 | Cucuta | Away | 2–2 | D |
Jaguares
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Deportivo Pereira | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 27/10 | Llaneros | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 22/10 | Santa Fe | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 18/10 | Millonarios | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 12/10 | Deportes Tolima | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 03/10 | Águilas Doradas | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 28/09 | Alianza Valledupar | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 23/09 | Independiente Medellin | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Fortaleza FC | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 06/09 | Junior | Away | 3–3 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: Primera A
Deportivo Pasto #3 · 34 pts · Jaguares #16 · 18 pts
Deportivo Pasto
Jaguares
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Deportivo Pasto
Jaguares
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Primera A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws