Predictions β†’ England Championship

Lincoln vs Birmingham

Next match: Sat, 31 Oct 2026 β€’ 12:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 13 β€’ LNER stadium β€’ β˜€οΈ 5.7Β°C, 13 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 82% 52.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance X2 75% 77.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 81% 48.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 48.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 0-1 69% 10.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.5 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Lincoln 0.84 – 1.50 Birmingham Β· expected total 2.34

🧠 Match Preview

Lincoln sit 18th on 12 points from 11 games and welcome a Birmingham side fourth on 20, so the stakes are clear: the visitors can keep pace at the top while Lincoln need something to stop the slide. Form points one way β€” Lincoln have lost three of their last five (LLLWW) while Birmingham arrive with WWDWL.

The model leans heavily on the attacking gap. Birmingham's recent expected goals sit at 2.19 against Lincoln's 1.01, and the match expectation splits 1.4998 to 0.8378 in the visitors' favour. That translates to a 52.3 percent away win with confidence rated 82, and a double chance on X2 at 77.2 percent. The correct-score model likes 0-1 at 13.28, with 0-2 next at 10.87. Goals look scarce: Under 2.5 is the tip at 48.4 percent and both teams to score No at 48.7. Corners offer a separate angle, with an expected 10.5 and Over 9.5 at 54.2 percent.

Where might value hide? The away win at 52.3 percent is the headline, but the safer construction is X2 at 77.2 β€” check the bookmaker price against that implied probability before committing. The unders and BTTS No numbers are close to coin-flips, so only back them if the odds clear the 48.4 and 48.7 thresholds comfortably. The caveat: both squads are badly depleted, with eight Lincoln absentees and ten for Birmingham, and the model cannot fully price that disruption β€” treat the clean-sheet lean with caution.

Updated 19 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Lincoln

Form (last 5)
LWest Ham (H) 0–6 Β· 14/10/2026LSheffield Utd (A) 0–3 Β· 10/10/2026LSwansea (H) 1–2 Β· 19/09/2026WBristol City (A) 1–0 Β· 15/09/2026WPreston (A) 1–0 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.01
xG against (recent avg)1.60
Elo strength rating1363
Players out8

Birmingham

Form (last 5)
WPreston (H) 4–0 Β· 13/10/2026WWest Brom (A) 1–0 Β· 10/10/2026DMiddlesbrough (H) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026WDerby (A) 2–1 Β· 12/09/2026LNorwich (A) 1–2 Β· 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)2.19
xG against (recent avg)1.10
Elo strength rating1618
Players out10
LincolnBirmingham
Goals scored (season avg)
0.70
1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.70
1.10
Win streak (best this season)
2
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.01
2.19
xG against (recent avg)
1.60
1.10
Elo strength rating
1363
1618
Players out
8
10

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Lincoln

Lost 3 in a row Winless 3
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Birmingham

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 4
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Lincoln

Worst attack (0.70 goals/game) Worst BTTS rate (17%) 2nd best clean sheets (4)

Birmingham

Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Lincoln at home Β· Birmingham away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Lincoln (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–3L
D 2
L 3
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)2.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2

Birmingham (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–1L
W 3
D 1
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
Lincoln (home)Birmingham (away)
D 2
L 3
W 3
D 1
L 1
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
0.60
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
2.40
0.80
Clean sheets
1
2
Failed to score
2
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
10.8%
0–2
8.8%
1–2
7.4%
0–3
4.4%
1–3
3.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Birmingham 3 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Lincoln 0 wins Β· avg 2.7 goals Β· BTTS in 2 of 3

3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
08 Mar 2025 Birmingham 1–0 Lincoln League One
11 Jan 2025 Birmingham 2–1 Lincoln FA Cup
19 Oct 2024 Lincoln 1–3 Birmingham League One

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Lincoln

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
14/10 West Ham Home 0–6 L
10/10 Sheffield Utd Away 0–3 L
19/09 Swansea Home 1–2 L
15/09 Bristol City Away 1–0 W
12/09 Preston Away 1–0 W

Birmingham

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
13/10 Preston Home 4–0 W
10/10 West Brom Away 1–0 W
19/09 Middlesbrough Home 2–2 D
12/09 Derby Away 2–1 W
09/09 Norwich Away 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Lincoln #18 Β· 12 pts β€”  Birmingham #4 Β· 20 pts

Lincoln

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–3D–5L
W 3
D 3
L 5
Played11
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3
Yellow cards23
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.01
xG against (avg)1.60
Corners for (avg)2.70
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Birmingham

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–5D–1L
W 5
D 5
L 1
Played11
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Yellow cards21
Red cards0
xG for (avg)2.19
xG against (avg)1.10
Corners for (avg)6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
LincolnBirmingham
W 3
D 3
L 5
W 5
D 5
L 1
Played
11
11
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.70
1.10
Clean sheets
4
3
Failed to score
3
1
Yellow cards
23
21
Red cards
2
0
xG for (avg)
1.01
2.19
xG against (avg)
1.60
1.10
Corners for (avg)
2.70
6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Lincoln

1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
2
scored conceded

Birmingham

1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
8
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Lincoln

  • ❌ S. Bradley β€” Knock
  • ❌ A. Jackson β€” Surgery
  • ❌ J. Collins β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ T. Darikwa β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ T. Hamer β€” Health problems
  • ❌ M. Melia β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ C. McGrandles β€” Red Card
  • ❌ R. Hackett-Fairchild β€” Inactive

Birmingham

  • ❌ L. Buchanan β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Ducksch β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ T. Gardner-Hickman β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Leonard β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ M. Bird β€” Inactive
  • ❌ D. Gray β€” Injury
  • ❌ P. Roberts β€” Health problems
  • ❌ S. Wright β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ J. E. Solis Romero β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Paik Seung-Ho β€” Health problems

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws