Birmingham vs Swansea
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 18:00 UTC+3 • Round 15 • ☁️ 8.4°C, 8 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 51.9% | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | Current price not available | 76.5% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 60.8% · No 39.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 60% · Under 40% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 9.8% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.7 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 51.3% · Under 48.7% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Birmingham · Home
Birmingham have won four of their last five, scoring 11 goals and keeping three clean sheets, with the lone defeat a 0-1 loss at Cardiff. Their recent xG for of 2.19 across those matches with recorded statistics supports a strong attacking baseline, and the model expects 1.89 goals here.
Swansea · Away
Swansea have alternated sharply, following a 4-0 home win over Blackburn with a 0-5 away loss at QPR, and they failed to score in two of their last five. Their recent xG for of 1.83 is respectable, but the model expects only 1.22 goals in this fixture.
Birmingham edge recent H2H
The latest head-to-head is the clearest angle: Birmingham won 0-1 at Swansea on 8 Aug 2026, and they also won 1-0 at home in the prior meeting, with a 1-1 draw between. Birmingham's 11 goals in five matches and three clean sheets give the home side a realistic platform, while Swansea's 0-5 defeat at QPR shows the away risk. The model's 51.9% home probability and 2-1 correct-score lean fit this pattern. The evidence supports Birmingham win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 04:49 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Birmingham 1.89 – 1.22 Swansea · expected total 3.11
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Birmingham
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Birmingham
Swansea
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Championship
Birmingham
Swansea
Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Birmingham at home · Swansea away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Birmingham (home)
Swansea (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Birmingham 5 wins · 5 draws · Swansea 0 wins · avg 2.5 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Aug 2026 | Swansea | 0–1 | Birmingham | League Cup |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Swansea | 1–1 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Birmingham | 1–0 | Swansea | Championship |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Birmingham | 2–2 | Swansea | Championship |
| 05 Aug 2023 | Swansea | 1–1 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 04 Feb 2023 | Swansea | 3–4 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 08 Nov 2022 | Birmingham | 2–2 | Swansea | Championship |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Swansea | 0–0 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 23 Oct 2021 | Birmingham | 2–1 | Swansea | Championship |
| 02 Apr 2021 | Birmingham | 1–0 | Swansea | Championship |
📈 Recent Form
Birmingham
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Lincoln | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 24/10 | Cardiff | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 17/10 | QPR | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 13/10 | Preston | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 10/10 | West Brom | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Middlesbrough | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 12/09 | Derby | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 09/09 | Norwich | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 06/09 | Wolves | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 01/09 | Southampton | Home | 1–1 | D |
Swansea
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Blackburn | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 24/10 | QPR | Away | 0–5 | L |
| 17/10 | West Ham | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 13/10 | Millwall | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 10/10 | Norwich | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 19/09 | Lincoln | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 12/09 | Burnley | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 08/09 | Southampton | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 05/09 | Wrexham | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 01/09 | Watford | Home | 2–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Championship
Birmingham #6 · 23 pts · Swansea #2 · 26 pts
Birmingham
Swansea
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Birmingham
Swansea
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Birmingham
- ❌ L. Buchanan: Knee Injury
- ❌ M. Ducksch: Calf Injury
- ❌ T. Gardner-Hickman: Injury
- ❌ M. Leonard: Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ D. Gray: Injury
- ❌ P. Roberts: Health problems
- ❌ S. Wright: Off the roster
- ❌ Paik Seung-Ho: Health problems
- ❓ A. Priske (doubtful): Health problems
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): M. Bird, J. E. Solis Romero; not counted as confirmed absences.
Swansea
- ❌ C. Burgess: Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ R. Stewart: Injury
- ❌ G. Franco: Ankle Injury
- ❌ J. Key: Muscle Injury
- ❌ S. Eustaquio: Shoulder Injury
- ❌ F. Lissah: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Ronald: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ M. K. Yeo: Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): B. Cabango; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws