Predictions β†’ England Championship

Blackburn vs Wrexham

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 12 β€’ Ewood Park β€’ 🌦 9.1Β°C, 19 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 84% 56.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 76% 78.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 79% 45.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 79% 45.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 67% 10% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.4 exp.) Over 9.5 65% 55.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Blackburn 1.63 – 0.86 Wrexham Β· expected total 2.49

🧠 Match Preview

Blackburn host Wrexham at Ewood Park on Saturday with little more than mid-table pride and momentum at stake: the home side sit 10th on 15 points from 11 games, Wrexham 14th on 14. A win nudges either into the play-off conversation; a defeat leaves them drifting.

The model leans firmly home. Blackburn's recent form reads WWDWL against Wrexham's LDWLD, and the expected goals split is telling: 1.6327 for the hosts against 0.861 for the visitors, with recent shot-quality numbers of 1.12 and 0.79 reinforcing the gap. The headline home win carries 56.3 percent probability at confidence 84, and the double chance 1X sits at 78.4 percent. Goals look scarce: Under 2.5 lands at 45.7 percent and both teams to score "No" at 45.9 percent, while the correct-score model favours 1-0 at 12.34 percent, ahead of 2-0 at 11.03 and 2-1 at 9.49. Corners offer a separate angle, with an expected 11.4 and Over 9.5 at 55.8 percent.

Value hunting depends on prices, and none are quoted here, so compare the model's 56.3 percent home win and 78.4 percent double chance against the bookmaker's implied numbers before committing; the same applies to the unders and the corner line. The honest caveat is team news: Blackburn list twelve absentees including Baradji, Kargbo and Wharton, Wrexham nine including Windass and Broadhead, and a heavily rotated XI could undercut the xG edge the model is pricing.

Updated 18 Oct 2026, 13:06 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Blackburn

Form (last 5)
WBristol City (A) 1–0 Β· 13/10/2026WCardiff (H) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026DPortsmouth (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026WMillwall (H) 3–1 Β· 12/09/2026LSheffield Utd (H) 1–2 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.12
xG against (recent avg)1.45
Elo strength rating1354
Players out12

Wrexham

Form (last 5)
LWest Brom (H) 1–2 Β· 13/10/2026DDerby (A) 1–1 Β· 10/10/2026WSouthampton (H) 2–1 Β· 19/09/2026LWest Ham (A) 0–6 Β· 11/09/2026DBurnley (H) 1–1 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.79
xG against (recent avg)1.45
Elo strength rating1590
Players out9
BlackburnWrexham
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
1.50
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.12
0.79
xG against (recent avg)
1.45
1.45
Elo strength rating
1354
1590
Players out
12
9

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Blackburn

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 4
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Wrexham

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Blackburn

Best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Wrexham

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Blackburn at home Β· Wrexham away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Blackburn (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–2L
W 3
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Wrexham (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–1L
W 1
D 3
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Blackburn (home)Wrexham (away)
W 3
L 2
W 1
D 3
L 1
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.60
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
10%
2–0
8.9%
2–1
7.7%
3–0
4.9%
3–1
4.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Blackburn 1 win Β· 1 draw Β· Wrexham 1 win Β· avg 3 goals Β· BTTS in 2 of 3

1
1
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
01 Jan 2026 Blackburn 0–2 Wrexham Championship
29 Nov 2025 Wrexham 1–1 Blackburn Championship
29 Jan 2024 Blackburn 4–1 Wrexham FA Cup

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Blackburn

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
13/10 Bristol City Away 1–0 W
10/10 Cardiff Home 2–1 W
19/09 Portsmouth Away 2–2 D
12/09 Millwall Home 3–1 W
08/09 Sheffield Utd Home 1–2 L

Wrexham

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
13/10 West Brom Home 1–2 L
10/10 Derby Away 1–1 D
19/09 Southampton Home 2–1 W
11/09 West Ham Away 0–6 L
08/09 Burnley Home 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Blackburn #10 Β· 15 pts β€”  Wrexham #14 Β· 14 pts

Blackburn

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–3D–4L
W 4
D 3
L 4
Played11
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
Yellow cards24
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.12
xG against (avg)1.45
Corners for (avg)7.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Wrexham

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–5D–3L
W 3
D 5
L 3
Played11
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Yellow cards12
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.79
xG against (avg)1.45
Corners for (avg)4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
BlackburnWrexham
W 4
D 3
L 4
W 3
D 5
L 3
Played
11
11
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.50
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
1
2
Yellow cards
24
12
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
1.12
0.79
xG against (avg)
1.45
1.45
Corners for (avg)
7.20
4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Blackburn

3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
6
2
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Wrexham

3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Blackburn

  • ❌ M. Baradji β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ D. De Neve β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Jorgensen β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Kargbo β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ L. Miller β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ S. Wharton β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ M. Litherland β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Y. Ohashi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ H. Pickering β€” Inactive
  • ❌ T. Atcheson β€” Red Card
  • ❌ A. Forshaw β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ Y. Ribeiro β€” Hamstring Injury

Wrexham

  • ❌ L. Cacace β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ S. Revan β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ B. Sheaf β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Windass β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ G. Thomason β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ N. Broadhead β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Cleworth β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ O. Rathbone β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ M. James β€” Back Injury

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws