Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham

Sheffield United host Wrexham at Bramall Lane on Friday night with the two sides separated by a single point in the Championship table. United sit 11th on 15 points from 11 games, Wrexham 14th on 14, so this is a mid-table scrap where three points would give either side real breathing room.

The model leans home, but not comfortably. United's last five read LWLLL, and their recent attacking output of 0.99 expected goals is well below the 1.9074 the model projects for them here, so the home number is built more on venue and opponent than on current form. Wrexham arrive with LDWLD and a recent expected-goals figure of 0.79 against a projected 1.3383. Both squads are stretched: United list seven absentees including K. Phillips and H. Burrows, Wrexham nine including J. Windass and N. Broadhead. The head-to-head is wild — Wrexham won 1-2 at Bramall Lane in March and 5-3 in December, with 4-2 and 3-1 going the other way — which explains why the model still expects goals.

The home win is priced at 49.5 percent with confidence of 81, and the double chance 12 at 72.7 percent is the safer route. Both teams to score lands at 51.6 percent and over 2.5 goals at 52.7 percent, both marginal calls. The correct-score model favours 2-1 at 9.52 percent, ahead of 2-0 at 7.11 and 1-0 at 6.46. Corners point under 9.5 at 53.8 percent, with an expected 8.7. Value likely hides in the goals markets if the bookmaker prices this as a tight game — compare the 51.6 and 52.7 percent figures against the odds on offer.

The honest caveat: United's form is poor and their recent xG is nearly a full goal below projection, so the 49.5 percent home figure carries real risk.