West Ham vs West Brom

Saturday's Championship fixture at the London Stadium is a genuine promotion six-pointer: second-placed West Ham (22 points from 11) host fifth-placed West Brom (20 points from 11), with only two points separating them in the table. With a quarter of the campaign gone, this is the kind of night that shapes automatic-promotion narratives.

The model leans heavily home. West Ham's recent form reads WWDDL, and their attacking numbers are strong: 2.38 expected goals across recent matches, with a match expectation of 2.1156. West Brom arrive with WWLLD and a far more modest 0.94 recent expected goals, translating to 1.0183 for this game. The Hammers' defensive depth is the obvious concern — eight names on the injury list including T. Soucek, A. Areola and K. Mavropanos — while West Brom list four absentees. Head-to-head history offers little comfort either way: West Ham won 2-1 in January 2021 and 2-1 in January 2018, but lost 0-1 at home in January 2020.

The headline tip is a home win at 66.1% with confidence of 87, and double chance 1X at 80.6% is the safer anchor. Both teams to score lands at 51.8%, over 2.5 goals at 53.0%, and the correct-score model favours 2-1 at 9.99, just ahead of 2-0 at 9.81. Corners look lively: an expected 12.2 and 57.3% for over 9.5. Since no bookmaker odds are quoted, value can't be measured directly — compare the 66.1% home probability against the market price yourself.

The honest caveat: that injury list is long, and a patched-up West Ham defence against a top-five side is exactly where a 2-1 can flip to 2-2. Treat the home win as the lean, not a lock.