Dartford vs Three Bridges

Dartford host Three Bridges in the FA Trophy first round, a 1/128-final tie where a step up in opposition quality should favour the home side. The model makes Dartford clear favourites at 66.2 percent, with a confidence rating of 87, and prices the home win at 1.53.

The form lines are mixed and worth reading carefully. Dartford arrive on LLWLL, hardly convincing, while Three Bridges show LDLWW and come in with a little more momentum. The model's expected goals tell a different story, though: Dartford are projected at 2.3223 against Three Bridges at 1.4662, which points to a home side creating the better chances even if recent results have been patchy. There are no injuries listed for either team, so both should be close to full strength, and the only recent head-to-head is a 2-3 Dartford win away at Three Bridges on 08 Aug 2026, a game that suggests goals.

That shapes the tips. The double chance 12 sits at 75.6 percent, a solid safety net if you want to avoid the straight home price. Both teams to score is favoured at 60 percent with odds of 1.44, and over 2.5 goals at 66.5 percent with odds of 1.36, both consistent with the expected-goals split. The correct-score model leans 2-1 at 7.1 percent, with 3-1 and 3-2 close behind, so a home win with goals is the theme. Value is most likely in the goals markets rather than the outright, where 1.53 is short for a team on LLWLL.

The honest caveat: Dartford's recent form is poor and the head-to-head sample is a single match, so the model's edge rests heavily on the xG projection rather than results. Treat the home win as likely but not certain, and the goals tips as the more measured play.