Predictions β†’ England League Cup

Everton vs Newcastle

Next match: Thu, 29 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:45 UTC+3 β€’ Round of 16 β€’ Hill Dickinson Stadium β€’ 🌀 11.1Β°C, 16 km/h mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipOddsConfidenceProbabilityMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home β€”83% 54.6% β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X β€”74% 75.9% β€” β€”
BTTS Yes β€”81% 48.4% β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 β€”79% 46.3% β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-1 β€”64% 7.8% β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.5 exp.) Over 9.5 β€”63% 54.2% β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Everton 1.77 – 1.04 Newcastle Β· expected total 2.81

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Everton

Form (last 5)
LChelsea (H) 0–2 Β· 17/10/2026DHull City (A) 2–2 Β· 11/10/2026WIpswich (H) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WWolves (H) 1–0 Β· 16/09/2026DTottenham (A) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.50
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.33
xG against (recent avg)0.93

Newcastle

Form (last 5)
LAston Villa (H) 0–1 Β· 17/10/2026LCoventry (A) 1–4 Β· 12/10/2026WHull City (H) 2–1 Β· 19/09/2026LLeeds (A) 1–4 Β· 14/09/2026WMillwall (A) 1–0 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.15
xG against (recent avg)1.39
EvertonNewcastle
LChelsea (H) 0–2 Β· 17/10/2026DHull City (A) 2–2 Β· 11/10/2026WIpswich (H) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WWolves (H) 1–0 Β· 16/09/2026DTottenham (A) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026
LAston Villa (H) 0–1 Β· 17/10/2026LCoventry (A) 1–4 Β· 12/10/2026WHull City (H) 2–1 Β· 19/09/2026LLeeds (A) 1–4 Β· 14/09/2026WMillwall (A) 1–0 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
2.50
2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.00
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.33
1.15
xG against (recent avg)
0.93
1.39

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Everton

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Newcastle

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” League Cup

Everton

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Newcastle

3rd best BTTS rate (67%)

Rank among 16 League Cup teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Everton at home Β· Newcastle away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Everton (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Newcastle (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Everton (home)Newcastle (away)
W 1
W 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.8%
1–0
7.6%
2–0
7.5%
3–1
4.6%
3–0
4.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Everton 5 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Newcastle 3 wins Β· avg 2.7 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

5
2
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
12 Aug 2026 Newcastle 1–3 Everton Friendlies Clubs
28 Feb 2026 Newcastle 2–3 Everton Premier League
29 Nov 2025 Everton 1–4 Newcastle Premier League
25 May 2025 Newcastle 0–1 Everton Premier League
05 Oct 2024 Everton 0–0 Newcastle Premier League
02 Apr 2024 Newcastle 1–1 Everton Premier League
07 Dec 2023 Everton 3–0 Newcastle Premier League
27 Apr 2023 Everton 1–4 Newcastle Premier League
19 Oct 2022 Newcastle 1–0 Everton Premier League
17 Mar 2022 Everton 1–0 Newcastle Premier League

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Everton

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Chelsea Home 0–2 L
11/10 Hull City Away 2–2 D
19/09 Ipswich Home 1–0 W
16/09 Wolves Home 1–0 W
12/09 Tottenham Away 0–0 D

Newcastle

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Aston Villa Home 0–1 L
12/10 Coventry Away 1–4 L
19/09 Hull City Home 2–1 W
14/09 Leeds Away 1–4 L
08/09 Millwall Away 1–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” League Cup

Everton

Played2
Goals scored (avg)2.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards1
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.33
xG against (avg)0.93
Corners for (avg)5.30
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Newcastle

Played2
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards4
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.15
xG against (avg)1.39
Corners for (avg)6.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
EvertonNewcastle
Played
2
2
Goals scored (avg)
2.50
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
1.00
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
0
0
Yellow cards
1
4
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.33
1.15
xG against (avg)
0.93
1.39
Corners for (avg)
5.30
6.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Everton

0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Newcastle

0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: League Cup predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws