Predictions β†’ England League Two

Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 11:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 13 β€’ Memorial Stadium β€’ ☁️ 10.6Β°C, 13 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 85% 58.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 77% 79.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 82% 51.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 50.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 67% 9.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.7 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.69 – 0.86 Swindon Town Β· expected total 2.55

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Bristol Rovers

Form (last 5)
LShrewsbury (A) 0–1 Β· 17/10/2026LBarnet (H) 1–3 Β· 10/10/2026LWycombe (A) 1–4 Β· 06/10/2026LCrewe (A) 1–3 Β· 03/10/2026WExeter City (H) 1–0 Β· 26/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.19
xG against (recent avg)1.32
Elo strength rating1425

Swindon Town

Form (last 5)
DWalsall (H) 1–1 Β· 17/10/2026LCrewe (H) 0–1 Β· 10/10/2026LRochdale (A) 0–1 Β· 03/10/2026DAccrington ST (H) 1–1 Β· 26/09/2026LNewport County (H) 0–2 Β· 22/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.82
xG against (recent avg)1.43
Elo strength rating1483
Bristol RoversSwindon Town
Goals scored (season avg)
1.40
0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.60
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
4
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.19
0.82
xG against (recent avg)
1.32
1.43
Elo strength rating
1425
1483

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Bristol Rovers

Lost 4 in a row Winless 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Swindon Town

Winless 8
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
0/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” League Two

Bristol Rovers

3rd best clean sheets (4)

Swindon Town

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 24 League Two teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Bristol Rovers at home Β· Swindon Town away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Bristol Rovers (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–0D–1L
W 4
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0

Swindon Town (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–4L
D 1
L 4
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score5
Bristol Rovers (home)Swindon Town (away)
W 4
L 1
D 1
L 4
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.80
Clean sheets
3
1
Failed to score
0
5

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.8%
2–0
9.1%
2–1
7.8%
3–0
5.1%
3–1
4.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Bristol Rovers 2 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Swindon Town 6 wins Β· avg 2.7 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

2
2
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
28 Feb 2026 Swindon Town 1–1 Bristol Rovers League Two
13 Dec 2025 Bristol Rovers 0–3 Swindon Town League Two
08 Oct 2024 Swindon Town 4–0 Bristol Rovers EFL Trophy
18 Oct 2022 Bristol Rovers 3–0 Swindon Town EFL Trophy
22 Jan 2022 Swindon Town 1–1 Bristol Rovers League Two
02 Oct 2021 Bristol Rovers 1–3 Swindon Town League Two
23 Mar 2021 Bristol Rovers 0–1 Swindon Town League One
21 Nov 2020 Swindon Town 1–0 Bristol Rovers League One
13 Nov 2019 Bristol Rovers 1–0 Swindon Town EFL Trophy
08 Nov 2017 Bristol Rovers 2–4 Swindon Town EFL Trophy

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Bristol Rovers

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Shrewsbury Away 0–1 L
10/10 Barnet Home 1–3 L
06/10 Wycombe Away 1–4 L
03/10 Crewe Away 1–3 L
26/09 Exeter City Home 1–0 W

Swindon Town

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Walsall Home 1–1 D
10/10 Crewe Home 0–1 L
03/10 Rochdale Away 0–1 L
26/09 Accrington ST Home 1–1 D
22/09 Newport County Home 0–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” League Two

Bristol Rovers #9 Β· 15 pts β€”  Swindon Town #18 Β· 12 pts

Bristol Rovers

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–0D–6L
W 5
L 6
Played11
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3
Yellow cards27
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.19
xG against (avg)1.32
Corners for (avg)5.80
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Swindon Town

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–3D–5L
W 3
D 3
L 5
Played11
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score6
Yellow cards19
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.82
xG against (avg)1.43
Corners for (avg)5.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1
Bristol RoversSwindon Town
W 5
L 6
W 3
D 3
L 5
Played
11
11
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
1.60
1.40
Clean sheets
4
1
Failed to score
3
6
Yellow cards
27
19
Red cards
2
2
xG for (avg)
1.19
0.82
xG against (avg)
1.32
1.43
Corners for (avg)
5.80
5.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Bristol Rovers

2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
8
76-90
4
scored conceded

Swindon Town

3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
6
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: League Two predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws