Exeter City vs Cheltenham
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 • 15:30 UTC+3 • Round 15 • St James Park • ☁️ 8.4°C, 13 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 10:09 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 47.6% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 75.6% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 65.4% · No 34.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 64.2% · Under 35.8% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 9.3% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.5 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 50.2% · Under 49.8% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Exeter City · Home
Exeter City have won three of their last five, including home victories over Fleetwood Town and Crewe by 2-1 and 2-0. Their recent record shows six goals scored and three conceded across that run.
Cheltenham · Away
Cheltenham have scored nine goals in five matches but conceded eleven, with away defeats of 1-3 at Tranmere and 1-4 at Oldham. Their recent xG for of 0.69 sits well below Exeter's 1.24 over the same recorded period.
Exeter's Home Edge Holds
The latest head-to-head, on 13 Aug 2025, finished 2-0 to Cheltenham, yet Exeter won the prior meeting at home 1-0. Exeter's model expected goals of 1.9 for this fixture compare with Cheltenham's 1.42, and the 2-1 correct-score pick reflects a home side that has scored twice in two of its last three home matches. Cheltenham's away defeats of 1-3 and 1-4 show they can be opened up on the road. The evidence supports Exeter City win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 10:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Exeter City 1.90 – 1.42 Cheltenham · expected total 3.32
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Exeter City
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Exeter City
Cheltenham
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: League Two
Exeter City
Cheltenham
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 24 League Two teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Exeter City at home · Cheltenham away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Exeter City (home)
Cheltenham (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Cheltenham 5 wins · 0 draws · Exeter City 3 wins · avg 3.4 goals · BTTS in 3 of 8
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2025 | Cheltenham | 2–0 | Exeter City | League Cup |
| 01 Apr 2024 | Cheltenham | 1–2 | Exeter City | League One |
| 16 Sep 2023 | Exeter City | 1–0 | Cheltenham | League One |
| 18 Mar 2023 | Cheltenham | 3–1 | Exeter City | League One |
| 20 Aug 2022 | Exeter City | 0–1 | Cheltenham | League One |
| 09 Aug 2022 | Cheltenham | 0–7 | Exeter City | League Cup |
| 13 Mar 2021 | Exeter City | 0–1 | Cheltenham | League Two |
| 05 Dec 2020 | Cheltenham | 5–3 | Exeter City | League Two |
📈 Recent Form
Exeter City
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Salford City | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 24/10 | Fleetwood Town | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 20/10 | Crewe | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 17/10 | Colchester | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 10/10 | Shrewsbury | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Rotherham | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 26/09 | Bristol Rovers | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 19/09 | Tranmere | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 12/09 | Port Vale | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 08/09 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | Home | 2–0 | W |
Cheltenham
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Tranmere | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 24/10 | Newport County | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 20/10 | Fleetwood Town | Home | 4–2 | W |
| 17/10 | Oldham | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 13/10 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 10/10 | Salford City | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 03/10 | Accrington ST | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 26/09 | Chesterfield | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 19/09 | Colchester | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 12/09 | Crawley Town | Away | 3–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: League Two
Exeter City #12 · 19 pts · Cheltenham #5 · 21 pts
Exeter City
Cheltenham
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Exeter City
Cheltenham
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: League Two predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws