Predictions → England Premier League

Manchester United vs Aston Villa

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 19:30 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Old Trafford • ☀️ 6.6°C, 1 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Correct Score: 1-1
Model probability 13.3% · Market implied at best price ≈ 12.5% · EV at shown price +6.4%
Best odds 8.00 · Bet365 Betano 7.70William Hill 7.00

Snapshotted at publish: 1-1 at 8.00 (13.3%, Model EV +6.4%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.

Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Draw 1xBet3.9425.3% -0.3%
Double Chance 1X 1xBet1.4466.3% -4.5%
BTTS Yes William Hill1.5057.2% · No 42.8% -14.2%
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 1xBet2.4742.3% · Over 57.7% +4.5%
Correct Score 1-1 Bet3658.0013.3% +6.4%
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.9 exp.) Over 9.5 Current price not available60% · Under 40% —

🧠 Match Preview

Manchester United · Home

Manchester United have lost four of their last five, failing to score in three of them, including a 0-3 home defeat to Bournemouth (0-3). Their recent xG for over up to five matches with recorded statistics is just 1.12, while the model expected goals for this fixture is 1.37.

Aston Villa · Away

Aston Villa won three of their last five, beating Manchester City 2-1 (2-1) and Newcastle 1-0 away (1-0). Their recent xG for over up to five matches with recorded statistics is 2.34, well above their model expected goals of 1.39 for this fixture.

H2H swings point to a draw

The latest head-to-head was a 3-1 Manchester United home win (3-1), but Villa won the prior meeting 2-1 (2-1) and United also won 2-0 in May 2025 (2-0). United's run of 2 goals scored and 12 conceded across five matches contrasts with Villa's 7 scored and 6 conceded, yet the model still sets the sides close on expected goals at 1.37 and 1.39. A 1-1 correct score carries 13.3% and Under 2.5 sits at 42.3%, consistent with a tight, shared outcome rather than a clear home or away edge. The evidence supports Draw.

Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Manchester United 1.37 – 1.39 Aston Villa · expected total 2.76

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Manchester United

Form (last 5)
LLLDL
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Best league winning streak this season4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.12
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.50
Elo strength rating1579
Players out13

Aston Villa

Form (last 5)
DLWWW
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Best league winning streak this season8
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.34
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.47
Elo strength rating1634
Players out17
Manchester UnitedAston Villa
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.70
1.40
Best league winning streak this season
4
8
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.12
2.34
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.50
1.47
Elo strength rating
1579
1634
Players out
13
17

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Manchester United

Lost 3 in a row Winless 9
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored a goal
3/6
No goals conceded
0/6

Aston Villa

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Premier League

Manchester United

2nd worst clean sheets (0, season)

Aston Villa

2nd best Over 2.5 rate (67%, last 6)

Rank among 20 Premier League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Manchester United at home · Aston Villa away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Manchester United (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–2L
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2

Aston Villa (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–1L
W 2
D 1
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Manchester United (home)Aston Villa (away)
W 1
D 1
L 2
W 2
D 1
L 1
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
1.50
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
2
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

1–1
13.27%
0–0
7.53%
2–2
5.75%
3–3
1.22%
4–4
0.15%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Aston Villa 2 wins · 2 draws · Manchester United 6 wins · avg 3.2 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10

2
2
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
15 Mar 2026 Manchester United 3–1 Aston Villa Premier League
21 Dec 2025 Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester United Premier League
25 May 2025 Manchester United 2–0 Aston Villa Premier League
06 Oct 2024 Aston Villa 0–0 Manchester United Premier League
11 Feb 2024 Aston Villa 1–2 Manchester United Premier League
26 Dec 2023 Manchester United 3–2 Aston Villa Premier League
30 Apr 2023 Manchester United 1–0 Aston Villa Premier League
10 Nov 2022 Manchester United 4–2 Aston Villa League Cup
06 Nov 2022 Aston Villa 3–1 Manchester United Premier League
23 Jul 2022 Manchester United 2–2 Aston Villa Friendlies Clubs

📈 Recent Form

Manchester United

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
31/10 Chelsea Away 0–2 L
25/10 Bournemouth Home 0–3 L
21/10 Como Away 1–4 L
18/10 Leeds Away 1–1 D
13/10 Atletico Madrid Away 0–2 L
10/10 Tottenham Home 1–1 D
20/09 Fulham Away 1–1 D
16/09 Brighton Home 2–3 L
13/09 Manchester City Home 0–1 L
10/09 Sabah FA Home 4–0 W

Aston Villa

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
31/10 Fulham Home 1–1 D
28/10 Bournemouth Away 0–3 L
24/10 Manchester City Home 2–1 W
21/10 Viking Home 3–1 W
17/10 Newcastle Away 1–0 W
14/10 Fenerbahçe Home 6–0 W
10/10 Brentford Home 2–2 D
02/10 Sevilla Away 3–1 W
19/09 Tottenham Away 3–2 W
16/09 Coventry Away 3–1 W

📊 Season Comparison: Premier League

Manchester United #17 · 7 pts ·  Aston Villa #9 · 12 pts

Manchester United

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–4D–4L
W 1
D 4
L 4
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets0
Failed to score4
Yellow cards21
Red cards1
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.12
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.50
Corners for (avg)6.80
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Aston Villa

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–3D–3L
W 3
D 3
L 3
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Yellow cards19
Red cards1
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.34
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.47
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1
Manchester UnitedAston Villa
W 1
D 4
L 4
W 3
D 3
L 3
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.70
1.40
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
4
3
Yellow cards
21
19
Red cards
1
1
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.12
2.34
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.50
1.47
Corners for (avg)
6.80
5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Manchester United

0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
3
scored conceded

Aston Villa

1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Manchester United

  • ❌ T. Heaton: Injury
  • ❌ M. Mount: Foot Injury
  • ❌ M. Ugarte: Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. de Ligt: Back Injury
  • ❌ C. Baleba: Ankle Injury
  • ❌ A. Diallo: Injury
  • ❌ L. Shaw: Injury
  • ❌ B. Sesko: Leg Injury
  • ❌ P. Dorgu: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ N. Mazraoui: Injury
  • ❌ A. Heaven: Illness
  • ❌ K. Mainoo: Injury
  • ❌ M. Rashford: Hip Injury

Aston Villa

  • ❌ T. Abraham: Injury
  • ❌ L. Bailey: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ B. Madjo: Ankle Injury
  • ❌ J. Manzambi: Knee Injury
  • ❌ E. Martinez: Finger Injury
  • ❌ A. Onana: Knee Injury
  • ❌ Joao Gomes: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ M. Cash: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ L. Goretzka: Knee Injury
  • ❌ Alysson: Injury
  • ❌ M. Bizot: Back Injury
  • ❌ I. Maatsen: Ankle Injury
  • ❌ P. Torres: Injury
  • ❌ M. Cisse: Hip Injury
  • ❌ G. Hemmings: Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Ruggeri: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Wan-Bissaka: Muscle Injury

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): O. Watkins; not counted as confirmed absences.

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