Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Round 7 • St. James' Park • ☁️ 11.5°C, 10 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	80%	46.3%	2.17	1xBet	46.6%	-0.3 pp
Double Chance	1X	71%	72%	1.39	Betano	71%	+1 pp
BTTS	Yes	85%	56.9%	1.55	William Hill	62.2%	-5.3 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	85%	56.9%	1.65	1xBet	59.8%	-2.9 pp
Correct Score	2-1	63%	7.6%	10.00	Bet365	5.4%	+2.2 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11 exp.)	Over 9.5	64%	55.1%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: Newcastle 1.76 – 1.20 Aston Villa · expected total 2.96

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Newcastle host Aston Villa at St. James' Park on Saturday, with both sides stuck in mid-table and desperate for a result that kick-starts their season. The Magpies sit 11th on 8 points from 5 games, while Villa are 15th with 5 points from 6.

The model leans toward the home side, giving Newcastle a 46.3 percent win probability at odds of 2.17, with double chance 1X rated at 72 percent. Form offers a mixed picture: Newcastle's last five read WLWDW, Villa's DWWWL. The expected goals split is telling — Newcastle's recent xG sits at just 1.03, while Villa's recent xG is 1.61, even though the season-long home figure of 1.7603 outranks the away 1.2034. Both injury lists are brutal, with Joelinton, V. Livramento, D. Burn, W. Osula, A. Elanga and others out for Newcastle, and Villa missing O. Watkins, E. Martinez, A. Onana, L. Bailey and more.

Beyond the result, the model likes Over 2.5 goals at 56.9 percent (odds 1.65) and BTTS Yes at 56.9 percent (odds 1.55). The top correct-score pick is 2-1 at 7.6 percent, with 2-0 and 1-0 close behind. Corners are tipped Over 9.5 at 55.1 percent, with an expected 11.

The honest caveat: those injury lists are enormous on both sides, and Newcastle's recent xG of 1.03 sits well below their season-long number, so the home edge may be thinner than the headline probability suggests.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Newcastle

Form (last 5)

WHull City (H) 2–1 · 19/09/2026 LLeeds (A) 1–4 · 14/09/2026WMillwall (A) 1–0 · 08/09/2026DBournemouth (H) 2–2 · 05/09/2026WTottenham (A) 2–0 · 29/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.80

Goals conceded (season avg)1.80

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)0.83

xG against (recent avg)1.31

Elo strength rating1467

Players out9

Aston Villa

Form (last 5)

DBrentford (H) 2–2 · 10/10/2026WSevilla (A) 3–1 · 02/10/2026WTottenham (A) 3–2 · 19/09/2026WCoventry (A) 3–1 · 16/09/2026LNottingham Forest (H) 1–2 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)1.80

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.23

xG against (recent avg)1.20

Elo strength rating1612

Players out15

NewcastleAston Villa

WHull City (H) 2–1 · 19/09/2026 LLeeds (A) 1–4 · 14/09/2026WMillwall (A) 1–0 · 08/09/2026DBournemouth (H) 2–2 · 05/09/2026WTottenham (A) 2–0 · 29/08/2026

DBrentford (H) 2–2 · 10/10/2026WSevilla (A) 3–1 · 02/10/2026WTottenham (A) 3–2 · 19/09/2026WCoventry (A) 3–1 · 16/09/2026LNottingham Forest (H) 1–2 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.80

1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.80

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.83

1.23

xG against (recent avg)

1.31

1.20

Elo strength rating

1467

1612

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Newcastle

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Aston Villa

Unbeaten 4

BTTS

6/6

Over 2.5

6/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Premier League

Newcastle

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Aston Villa

Best BTTS rate (100%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Rank among 20 Premier League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Newcastle at home · Aston Villa away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Newcastle (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–0L

W 1

D 2

Played3

Goals scored (avg)2.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.70

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Aston Villa (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–1L

W 1

D 1

L 1

Played3

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets1

Failed to score2

Newcastle (home)Aston Villa (away)

W 1

D 2

W 1

D 1

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

2.00

1.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.70

2.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1

7.6%

2–0

6.3%

1–0

6.3%

3–1

4.5%

3–0

3.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Aston Villa 3 wins · 2 draws · Newcastle 5 wins · avg 3.7 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
14 Feb 2026	Aston Villa	1–3	Newcastle	FA Cup
25 Jan 2026	Newcastle	0–2	Aston Villa	Premier League
16 Aug 2025	Aston Villa	0–0	Newcastle	Premier League
19 Apr 2025	Aston Villa	4–1	Newcastle	Premier League
26 Dec 2024	Newcastle	3–0	Aston Villa	Premier League
30 Jan 2024	Aston Villa	1–3	Newcastle	Premier League
12 Aug 2023	Newcastle	5–1	Aston Villa	Premier League
23 Jul 2023	Newcastle	3–3	Aston Villa	Premier League - Summer Series
15 Apr 2023	Aston Villa	3–0	Newcastle	Premier League
29 Oct 2022	Newcastle	4–0	Aston Villa	Premier League

📈 Recent Form

Newcastle

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
19/09	Hull City	Home	2–1	W
14/09	Leeds	Away	1–4	L
08/09	Millwall	Away	1–0	W
05/09	Bournemouth	Home	2–2	D
29/08	Tottenham	Away	2–0	W

Aston Villa

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Brentford	Home	2–2	D
02/10	Sevilla	Away	3–1	W
19/09	Tottenham	Away	3–2	W
16/09	Coventry	Away	3–1	W
12/09	Nottingham Forest	Home	1–2	L

📊 Season Comparison — Premier League

Newcastle #11 · 8 pts — Aston Villa #15 · 5 pts

Newcastle

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–1L

W 2

D 2

L 1

Played5

Goals scored (avg)1.80

Goals conceded (avg)1.80

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Yellow cards12

Red cards0

xG for (avg)0.83

xG against (avg)1.31

Corners for (avg)6.70

Penalties (scored/missed)0/1

Aston Villa

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–3L

W 1

D 2

L 3

Played6

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.80

Clean sheets1

Failed to score3

Yellow cards12

Red cards1

xG for (avg)1.23

xG against (avg)1.20

Corners for (avg)4.80

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

NewcastleAston Villa

W 2

D 2

L 1

W 1

D 2

L 3

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.80

1.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.80

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.83

1.23

xG against (avg)

1.31

1.20

Corners for (avg)

6.70

4.80

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/1

0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Newcastle

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Aston Villa

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Newcastle

❌ Joelinton — Injury
❌ V. Livramento — Hamstring Injury
❌ D. Burn — Ankle Injury
❌ W. Osula — Injury
❌ A. Elanga — Knee Injury
❌ E. Jaouen — Ankle Injury
❌ A. Dedic — Muscle Injury
❌ Nico — Injury
❌ J. Ramsey — Injury

Aston Villa

❌ T. Abraham — Injury
❌ L. Bailey — Muscle Injury
❌ B. Madjo — Ankle Injury
❌ J. Manzambi — Knee Injury
❌ E. Martinez — Finger Injury
❌ A. Onana — Knee Injury
❌ O. Watkins — Inactive
❌ Joao Gomes — Red Card
❌ M. Cash — Muscle Injury
❌ L. Goretzka — Knee Injury
❌ M. Cisse — Injury
❌ I. Maatsen — Ankle Injury
❌ Alysson — Injury
❌ M. Bizot — Back Injury
❌ P. Torres — Injury

More: Premier League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws