Sunderland vs Chelsea
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 17:00 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Stadium of Light • 🌦 8.7°C, 11 km/h, 0.2mm drizzle
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | 1xBet2.15 | 43.4% | -6.7% |
| Double Chance | 12 | 1xBet1.32 | 73.7% | -2.7% |
| BTTS | Yes | William Hill1.73 | 59.4% · No 40.6% | +2.8% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | SBO1.89 | 53% · Under 47% | +0.2% |
| Correct Score | 1-2 | Bet3659.50 | 7.9% | -25% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~12 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 65.9% · Under 34.1% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Sunderland · Home
Sunderland's recent run includes a 3-2 home win over Brentford and a 0-0 home draw with Leeds, but they also failed to score in two of their last five and conceded eight goals across that span. Their latest meeting with Chelsea ended 2-1 in Sunderland's favour at home on 24 May 2026.
Chelsea · Away
Chelsea won three of their last five, scoring ten and conceding four, including a 2-0 home win over Manchester United and a 5-1 home win over Bournemouth. Their recent away form shows a 1-1 draw at Liverpool and a 2-0 win at Everton.
Chelsea's Scoring Edge
Chelsea's recent record of ten goals in five matches contrasts with Sunderland's five, and Chelsea also won the reverse fixture 2-1 at home on 25 Oct 2025. Sunderland's home results are mixed, with the 3-2 win over Brentford followed by a 0-0 draw with Leeds, while Chelsea's away displays include a 2-0 win at Everton. The model gives Chelsea a 43.4% win probability and a 1-2 correct score, so an away victory is a realistic outcome despite Sunderland's 2-1 home win in the latest head-to-head. The evidence supports Chelsea win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Sunderland 1.52 – 1.37 Chelsea · expected total 2.89
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Sunderland
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Sunderland
Chelsea
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Premier League
Sunderland
Chelsea
Rank among 20 Premier League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Sunderland at home · Chelsea away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Sunderland (home)
Chelsea (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Chelsea 4 wins · 1 draw · Sunderland 4 wins · avg 3.2 goals · BTTS in 7 of 9
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | Sunderland | 2–1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Chelsea | 1–2 | Sunderland | Premier League |
| 21 May 2017 | Chelsea | 5–1 | Sunderland | Premier League |
| 14 Dec 2016 | Sunderland | 0–1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 07 May 2016 | Sunderland | 3–2 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 19 Dec 2015 | Chelsea | 3–1 | Sunderland | Premier League |
| 24 May 2015 | Chelsea | 3–1 | Sunderland | Premier League |
| 29 Nov 2014 | Sunderland | 0–0 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 19 Apr 2014 | Chelsea | 1–2 | Sunderland | Premier League |
📈 Recent Form
Sunderland
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Coventry | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 28/10 | Brentford | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 25/10 | Leeds | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 22/10 | Lech Poznan | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 18/10 | Bournemouth | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 15/10 | Torreense | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 10/10 | Brighton | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Manchester City | Away | 3–5 | L |
| 16/09 | AZ Alkmaar | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Arsenal | Home | 0–2 | L |
Chelsea
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Manchester United | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 28/10 | Liverpool | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 24/10 | Tottenham | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 17/10 | Everton | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 10/10 | Bournemouth | Home | 5–1 | W |
| 18/09 | Brentford | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 12/09 | Hull City | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 09/09 | Leeds | Home | 6–3 | W |
| 06/09 | Arsenal | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 30/08 | Brighton | Home | 4–3 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Premier League
Sunderland #20 · 5 pts · Chelsea #4 · 16 pts
Sunderland
Chelsea
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Sunderland
Chelsea
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Sunderland
- ❌ S. Adingra: Foot Injury
- ❌ D. Methalie: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ H. Diarra: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ R. Mundle: Knee Injury
- ❌ R. Mandava: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ D. Ballard: Muscle Injury
- ❌ B. Brobbey: Muscle Injury
- ❌ W. Isidor: Injury
- ❌ T. Meunier: Muscle Injury
- ❌ N. Mukiele: Face Injury
- ❌ K. Danso: Suspended (Red Card)
Chelsea
- ❌ M. Caicedo: Injury
- ❌ E. Emegha: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ W. Fofana: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ J. Henderson: Wrist Injury
- ❌ M. Palestra: Injury
- ❌ Joao Pedro: Knee Injury
- ❌ J. Gittens: Ankle Injury
- ❌ R. James: Knee Injury
- ❌ J. Hato: Injury
- ❌ M. Lacroix: Muscle Injury
- ❌ E. Martinez: Broken jawbone
- ❌ P. Chavarria: Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): M. Sarr (Transfer negotiations), E. Fernandez (Coach's decision).
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): A. Anselmino; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Premier League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws