Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

Crystal Palace host Newcastle at Selhurst Park on Sunday with little separating these two mid-table sides. Palace sit 12th on 7 points from 6 games, Newcastle a place higher on 8 points, so this is a chance for either to pull clear of the early-season pack.

The model leans toward the hosts, giving Crystal Palace a 42.7 percent win probability at 79 percent confidence, and the double chance of 1X lands at 72 percent. Recent form is patchy on both sides — Palace's WLDWL against Newcastle's LWLWD. The expected goals tell the story of a tight, low-scoring affair: Palace at 1.364 and Newcastle at 0.9566, with recent xG of 1.1 and 1.03 respectively. Both injury lists are lengthy, with Mateta, Sarr and Nketiah among Palace's absentees and Joelinton, Livramento and Burn out for Newcastle, which helps explain the subdued attacking numbers.

The tips follow that logic. Under 2.5 goals carries a 47.5 percent probability, BTTS No sits at 48.3 percent, and the correct score leans to 1-0 at 9.8 percent, with 2-0 and 2-1 next in the model's top scores. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 at 53.5 percent with an expected 10.2.

Where might value hide? The home win at 42.7 percent is the headline call, but the safer route is the 1X double chance at 72 percent, and the unders and BTTS No markets fit the goal expectation. The honest caveat: Newcastle have won two of the last five head-to-heads, including a 5-0 rout, and both squads are depleted — so the low-scoring read could be upset by a single moment.