Montpellier vs Metz
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Fri, 06 Nov 2026 • 22:00 UTC+3 • Round 12 • Stade de la Mosson • ☀️ 10.4°C, 4 km/h clear
Snapshotted at publish: Home at 2.23 (50.6%, Model EV +12.8%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.23 → 2.12 ▼5% | Betano2.12 | 52.5% | +11.3% |
| Double Chance | 1X | William Hill1.30 | 79% | +2.7% |
| BTTS | No | Betano2.35 | 46.2% · Yes 53.8% | +8.6% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Marathonbet2.14 | 44.3% · Over 55.7% | -5.2% |
| Correct Score | 2-0 | Betano12.50 | 10.8% | +35% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.9 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 52.7% · Under 47.3% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Montpellier · Home
Montpellier enter on a five-match unbeaten run of four wins and a draw, scoring 11 and conceding 2 with three clean sheets. They also won the latest head-to-head 4-0 away at Metz on 11 Jan 2026.
Metz · Away
Metz have won once in five, conceding 12 goals and keeping no clean sheet, including a 1-3 home loss to PAU. Their recent xG for of 1.47 sits well below Montpellier's model expected goals of 2.11.
Montpellier's H2H and defensive edge
The latest meeting ended 4-0 to Montpellier, and the two prior head-to-heads also went their way at 3-0 and 0-1. Montpellier's five-match record of 11 scored and 2 conceded contrasts with Metz's 9 scored and 12 conceded, with no Metz clean sheet. Metz's recent xG for of 1.47 against a home model expected goals of 2.11 supports a home edge. The evidence supports Montpellier win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Montpellier 2.11 – 0.92 Metz · expected total 3.03
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Montpellier
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Montpellier
Metz
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Ligue 2
Montpellier
Metz
Rank among 18 Ligue 2 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Montpellier at home · Metz away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Montpellier (home)
Metz (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Metz 2 wins · 4 draws · Montpellier 4 wins · avg 2.5 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2026 | Metz | 0–4 | Montpellier | Coupe de France |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Montpellier | 3–0 | Metz | Ligue 1 |
| 17 Dec 2023 | Metz | 0–1 | Montpellier | Ligue 1 |
| 01 May 2022 | Montpellier | 2–2 | Metz | Ligue 1 |
| 01 Dec 2021 | Metz | 1–3 | Montpellier | Ligue 1 |
| 31 Jul 2021 | Metz | 1–0 | Montpellier | Friendlies Clubs |
| 03 Feb 2021 | Metz | 1–1 | Montpellier | Ligue 1 |
| 16 Dec 2020 | Montpellier | 0–2 | Metz | Ligue 1 |
| 22 Aug 2020 | Metz | 1–1 | Montpellier | Friendlies Clubs |
| 05 Feb 2020 | Montpellier | 1–1 | Metz | Ligue 1 |
📈 Recent Form
Montpellier
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Annecy | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 26/10 | RED Star FC 93 | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 19/10 | Rodez | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 09/10 | Grenoble | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 18/09 | Reims | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 11/09 | PAU | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 05/09 | Saint Etienne | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 28/08 | Boulogne | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 21/08 | Dunkerque | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 14/08 | Nancy | Away | 1–0 | W |
Metz
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | PAU | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 23/10 | Dunkerque | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 17/10 | Sochaux | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 12/10 | Dijon | Away | 2–4 | L |
| 19/09 | Saint Etienne | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 14/09 | RED Star FC 93 | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 05/09 | Rodez | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 29/08 | Annecy | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 22/08 | Laval | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 14/08 | Grenoble | Away | 0–0 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: Ligue 2
Montpellier #2 · 24 pts · Metz #10 · 14 pts
Montpellier
Metz
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Montpellier
Metz
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Ligue 2 predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws