Our model gives Saint Etienne win a 91% confidence rating
France Ligue 2 Predictions and Betting Tips
Upcoming Matches β’ Next 20 Days β’ 1 Matches β’ Round 8 β’ Updated 19 minutes ago β’ UTC+3
Regular Season, Round 8
Friday, October 09
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 21:00 | LWDLL |
Dunkerque
vs
Annecy
|
LLWDL | 77% | 38.8% | Home β | N/A | 0 β 1 FT |
| 09/10 21:00 | DWLDW |
Montpellier
vs
Grenoble
|
DWLWL | 85% | 60% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 0 FT |
| 09/10 21:00 | WLLWW |
Nancy
vs
Guingamp
|
LWDDL | 81% | 49.2% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 0 FT |
| 09/10 21:00 | WLDDL |
PAU
vs
Laval
|
DLLLD | 85% | 59.8% | Home β | N/A | 3 β 2 FT |
| 09/10 21:00 | DWDDW |
Sochaux
vs
Boulogne
|
LDDDD | 88% | 66.7% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 1 FT |
Saturday, October 10
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 15:00 | DDDDD |
Clermont Foot
vs
RED Star FC 93
|
WWWLD | 80% | 46% | Away β | N/A | 2 β 3 FT |
| 10/10 15:00 | WLWDL |
Nantes
vs
Reims
|
DWDWW | 79% | 42.6% | Away β | N/A | 0 β 0 FT |
| 10/10 21:00 | DLWWW |
Saint Etienne
vs
Rodez
|
LLLDW | 92% | 77.1% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 0 FT |
Today - Monday, October 12
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:45 | WWDLD |
Dijon
vs
Metz
|
DLWDD | 75% | 34% | Home | 2.88 | β |
Top Trends from Ligue 2 Teams
Our model gives PAU win a 87% confidence rating
Our model gives Nantes win a 86% confidence rating
Our model gives Dijon win a 86% confidence rating
Boulogne have failed to win in their last 10 matches
Clermont Foot have failed to win in their last 10 matches
Reims are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
Predictlix Ligue 2 Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: October 9, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
Saint Etienne vs Rodez stands out as the strongest signal in this window, with the PredictLix model assigning a 77.5% probability and a 92 confidence rating to a home win. That gap reflects a huge lambda split, 2.3594 for Saint Etienne against 0.8471 for Rodez, plus a table-topping side facing a relegation battler. Nancy vs Laval also leans home at 58%, while Metz vs Sochaux sits at 61.2%. Back Saint Etienne at 1.43, where the +10.1pp edge confirms real value.
Model Track Record in This League
The PredictLix model has settled 74 matches in this league, updated 2026-09-19, and the sample is small. Match winner accuracy sits at 37.8% correct (28/74), while BTTS landed 51.4% (38/74) and Over/Under 2.5 reached 59.5% (44/74). Correct score proved hardest at 16.2% (12/74). Double chance delivered 73% (54/74), and corners O/U 9.5 hit 57.7% (30/52). Draw picks managed 32.4% (11/34). High-confidence picks at 75+ returned 49.4% (n=269); medium-confidence picks at 50-74 returned 44.9% (n=187).
Goals Landscape β Over/Under Breakdown
Grenoble vs Boulogne stands out as the strongest Under lean, with the PredictLix model reading Under 2.5 at 61.6% and lambdas of just 1.0485 and 0.6299. PAU vs Laval follows closely, Under 2.5 at 56.5% with lambdas of 1.4049 and 0.5539. By contrast, Saint Etienne vs Rodez leans Over 2.5 at 56.6%, the home side's lambda of 2.3594 driving that call. Best takeaway: Under 2.5 in Grenoble vs Boulogne at 1.65.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Reims arrive unbeaten in their last 10 matches, the longest active streak in this window. Clermont Foot sit at the opposite extreme, having failed to win in their last 10, while Boulogne have gone 9 without victory. Grenoble have managed just 2 wins from their 10 most recent outings. Saint Etienne carry the strongest form line at DLWWW, and Laval's DLLLD leaves them bottom. Full data coverage applies, so these runs reflect genuine samples rather than early-season noise.
Defensive Lines β Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Saint Etienne's defensive record stands out with 2.7 goals scored and just 1.1 conceded, while Rodez leak badly at 2.3 conceded per game without a single clean sheet. Guingamp and Laval both sit on 0.7 conceded, each registering 4 clean sheets across 7 outings, the joint-best shutout tallies in this window. Boulogne and Clermont Foot have proven stubborn too, conceding 0.7 and 0.9 respectively. At the opposite end, Rodez, Dunkerque and Grenoble all ship 1.7 per match, exposing fragile back lines.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Saint Etienne top the table on 16 points with a Champions League spot, while Rodez sit 14th and are in a relegation battle needing points. Clermont Foot occupy the RELEGATION ZONE and must win, having failed to win in their last 10 matches. Nancy, sixth and chasing a European spot, host bottom club Laval, who are also in the RELEGATION ZONE and must win. Every contest in this Regular Season window carries genuine stakes, with no confirmed dead rubbers across the 20 ties.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
Saint Etienne lead this three-leg accumulator, priced at 1.43 with a 92 confidence rating against Rodez. Montpellier follow at home to Grenoble, offered at 1.62 with confidence 87. PAU complete the treble at 2.15, confidence 81, hosting bottom-side Laval. Combined odds for all three legs come to exactly 4.98. Back this PredictLix acca at 4.98 and treat the 1.43 Saint Etienne anchor as the safest single if you prefer lower risk.
Model vs Market β Value Edges
Saint Etienne vs Rodez stands out, where the PredictLix model rates a home win at 77.5% against a bookmaker implied 67.4%, a +10.1pp edge at 1.43. Sochaux vs Boulogne shows 46.5% versus 40.7%, worth +5.8pp at 2.39, while Montpellier vs Grenoble delivers 64.7% against 59.3%, a +5.4pp edge at 1.62. PAU vs Laval adds 49.2% versus 45%, a +4.2pp edge at 2.15. A positive edge signals long-term value, not a guaranteed win here. Back Saint Etienne at 1.43 with high confidence.
AI Prediction Accuracy β Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types β wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Recent Form β Last 30 Days
Probability Calibration β Does 70% Really Mean 70%?
Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.
| Market | Predicted | Actual | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) Β· <60% | 44.9% | 34.1% | 44 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 60-69% | 63.6% | 66.7% | 3 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 70-79% | 77.1% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Both Teams to Score Β· <60% | 53.2% | 40.0% | 40 |
| Both Teams to Score Β· 60-69% | 62.9% | 87.5% | 8 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· <60% | 52.7% | 44.1% | 34 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· 60-69% | 63.1% | 61.5% | 13 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· 70-79% | 70.4% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Correct Score Β· <60% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 48 |
| Double Chance Β· 70-79% | 75.0% | 69.2% | 39 |
| Double Chance Β· 80+% | 83.6% | 100.0% | 5 |
| Double Chance Β· 60-69% | 69.6% | 50.0% | 4 |
| Corners Over/Under Β· 80+% | 89.1% | 37.5% | 8 |
| Corners Over/Under Β· 70-79% | 74.3% | 14.3% | 7 |
| Corners Over/Under Β· 60-69% | 64.9% | 71.4% | 7 |
| Corners Over/Under Β· <60% | 54.6% | 65.2% | 23 |
| Draw Predictions Β· <60% | 28.3% | 28.6% | 14 |
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Regular Season, Round 7
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 15:00 | DDDDL |
Boulogne
vs
Nantes
|
LWDLL | 76% | 39.4% | Home β | @3.44 | 1 β 2 FT |
| 19/09 15:00 | WDDLW |
Guingamp
vs
RED Star FC 93
|
WWLDD | 77% | 42.5% | Home β | @2.36 | 1 β 3 FT |
| 19/09 21:00 | DLWDD |
Metz
vs
Saint Etienne
|
LWWWW | 76% | 41.1% | Away β | @1.95 | 2 β 2 FT |