PAU vs Nantes
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Fri, 06 Nov 2026 • 22:00 UTC+3 • Round 12 • Nouste Camp • ☁️ 9.9°C, 5 km/h overcast
Snapshotted at publish: Yes at 1.70 (77.0%, Model EV +30.9%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw | Betano3.40 | 25.1% | -14.7% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betfair1.62 | 64% | +3.7% |
| BTTS | Yes | William Hill1.70 | 77% · No 23% | +30.9% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Pinnacle1.93 | 59.2% · Under 40.8% | +14.3% |
| Correct Score | 2-2 | Betano14.00 | 6.7% | -6.2% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.7 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 56.3% · Over 43.7% | — |
Bookmaker links on this page: #ad · Play Safe · T&Cs apply · 18+
🧠 Match Preview
Model view
Model 1X2 split: PAU 38.9% · Draw 25.1% · Nantes 36.0%. Selected outcome: Draw.
Goals
Model expected goals: PAU 2.69, Nantes 1.72, expected total 4.41.
Price check
Draw is selected under the published draw rule, but the displayed price does not offer positive model EV.
Form / H2H
PAU: W-W-W-W-W in their last five matches.
Nantes: D-L-L-D-W in their last five matches.
Last meeting: PAU 1–4 Nantes, 05 Jan 2024.
Historical form, not a probability for the next match.
Limitations
Lineups, injuries and late team news can change the outlook. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
PAU
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
PAU
Nantes
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Ligue 2
PAU
Nantes
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 18 Ligue 2 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
PAU at home · Nantes away, the split that matters for this fixture.
PAU (home)
Nantes (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Nantes 1 win · 0 draws · PAU 0 wins · avg 5 goals · BTTS in 1 of 1
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jan 2024 | PAU | 1–4 | Nantes | Coupe de France |
📈 Recent Form
PAU
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Metz | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 23/10 | Grenoble | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 16/10 | Guingamp | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 09/10 | Laval | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 03/10 | Toulouse | Away | 3–2 | W |
| 18/09 | Dunkerque | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 11/09 | Montpellier | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 04/09 | Sochaux | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 28/08 | Rodez | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 21/08 | Nancy | Home | 0–1 | L |
Nantes
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Clermont Foot | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 24/10 | Saint Etienne | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 17/10 | Dunkerque | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 10/10 | Reims | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 19/09 | Boulogne | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 12/09 | Sochaux | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 07/09 | Nancy | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 29/08 | Guingamp | Away | 3–3 | D |
| 22/08 | Rodez | Home | 2–5 | L |
| 14/08 | Laval | Away | 1–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: Ligue 2
PAU #3 · 20 pts · Nantes #15 · 9 pts
PAU
Nantes
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
PAU
Nantes
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Ligue 2 predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws