SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg
Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 13:30 UTC+3 • Round 6 • Waldstadion Kaiserlinde • ☁️ 10.5°C, 11 km/h overcast
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 76% | 35% | 2.55 | 1xBet | 39.1% | -4.1 pp |
| Double Chance | 12 | 68% | 67.7% | 1.30 | 1xBet | 75.6% | -7.9 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 82% | 51% | 1.40 | William Hill | 67.4% | -16.4 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 49.9% | 1.47 | Pinnacle | 65.3% | -15.4 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 64% | 7.9% | 15.00 | Bet365 | 3.5% | +4.4 pp |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 57% | 26.6% | 3.92 | 1xBet | 24.4% | +2.2 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.9 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 61% | 52.9% | 1.75 | Betano | 53.6% | -0.7 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: SV Elversberg 1.34 – 1.14 FC Augsburg · expected total 2.48
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans toward the home side, giving Elversberg a 37 percent chance of victory at odds of 2.55, with a confident 77 rating behind that call. Form offers some support: Elversberg arrive on DLWWW, while Augsburg have matched them with LDWWW. The expected goals picture is tighter than the table suggests — Elversberg's recent xG sits at 1.48 against Augsburg's 1.8, though the match lambdas favour the hosts at 1.5454 to 1.1647. Augsburg's injury list is the standout concern, with eight absentees including S. Mounie and N. Banks, while Elversberg are missing three in L. Seifert, T. Zimmerschied and F. Onyeka.
Where might value hide? The double chance 1X lands at 69.7 percent, a solid anchor for cautious bettors. Both teams to score is priced at 1.4 with a 52.3 percent model read, and Over 2.5 goals at 1.47 with 52.2 percent — both short enough that the edge is thin. Corners offer a livelier angle: Over 9.5 is expected at 9.9 with a 52.9 percent probability. The correct score model points to 2-1 at 7.3 percent, the top scoreline.
The honest caveat: a 37 percent home win is not a dominant edge, and the draw carries 26.4 percent at 56 confidence. With Augsburg's depleted squad but superior recent xG, this is closer than the odds imply — stake accordingly.
Updated 10 Oct 2026, 16:11 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
SV Elversberg
FC Augsburg
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
SV Elversberg
FC Augsburg
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Bundesliga
SV Elversberg
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
FC Augsburg
Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
SV Elversberg at home · FC Augsburg away — the split that matters for this fixture.
SV Elversberg (home)
FC Augsburg (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
📈 Recent Form
SV Elversberg
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Union Berlin | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 24/09 | Waldhof Mannheim | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 20/09 | FC Schalke 04 | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 13/09 | Bayern München | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 05/09 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Away | 4–3 | W |
FC Augsburg
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Bayern München | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 02/10 | Hertha BSC | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 19/09 | Werder Bremen | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 12/09 | Bayer Leverkusen | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 06/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Away | 4–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Bundesliga
SV Elversberg #9 · 7 pts — FC Augsburg #6 · 8 pts
SV Elversberg
FC Augsburg
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
SV Elversberg
FC Augsburg
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
SV Elversberg
- ❌ L. Seifert — Ankle Injury
- ❌ T. Zimmerschied — Back Injury
- ❌ F. Onyeka — Foot Injury
FC Augsburg
- ❌ T. Breithaupt — Injury
- ❌ S. Mounie — Injury
- ❌ K. Jakic — Injury
- ❌ A. Kade — Calf Injury
- ❌ F. Sakar — Ankle Injury
- ❌ S. Suso — Muscle Injury
- ❌ N. Banks — Knee Injury
- ❌ T. Schnitzer — Injury
More: Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws