Predictions β†’ Germany Bundesliga

FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 13:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ WWK Arena β€’ ☁️ 9.6Β°C, 5 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 85% 60.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 78% 80.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 81% 49% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 49.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 69% 10.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: FC Augsburg 1.68 – 0.80 Union Berlin Β· expected total 2.48

🧠 Match Preview

Augsburg host Union Berlin at the WWK Arena on Saturday, with the two clubs separated by four points and ten places after five rounds. Augsburg sit 6th on 8 points, while Union are 16th on 4, so this is a chance for the hosts to consolidate upper-table comfort and for the visitors to stop the slide.

The model leans clearly home. Augsburg's recent form reads DDLDW, Union's WWLLL, and the expected goals split is stark: 1.6771 for Augsburg against 0.7981 for Union, with recent xG at 1.8 and 1.41 respectively. The match-result tip is Home at 60.2 percent with 85 confidence, and the double chance 1X lands at 80.5 percent. Both squads are heavily depleted β€” Augsburg list ten absentees including J. Bah as doubtful, Union nine with E. Latte Lath doubtful β€” which adds noise to any read on lineups.

Where might value hide? The goals markets are tight: Over 2.5 comes in at 49.6 percent and BTTS No at 49, both essentially coin flips, so neither is a strong standalone play. The correct-score model favours 1-0 at 10.6 percent, with 1-0 and 2-0 the leading scorelines at 13.01 and 11.85. Corners look more interesting: Over 9.5 is tipped at 53.2 percent against an expected 10.1.

The honest caveat is that 60.2 percent is a lean, not a lock, and the last head-to-head was a 4-0 Union win in May 2026. With both injury lists this long, treat the home tip as the anchor rather than a banker.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

FC Augsburg

Form (last 5)
DBayern MΓΌnchen (H) 2–2 Β· 10/10/2026DHertha BSC (H) 2–2 Β· 02/10/2026LWerder Bremen (A) 2–3 Β· 19/09/2026DBayer Leverkusen (H) 2–2 Β· 12/09/2026WEintracht Frankfurt (A) 4–1 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.05
xG against (recent avg)1.37
Elo strength rating1544
Players out9

Union Berlin

Form (last 5)
WSV Elversberg (H) 1–0 Β· 10/10/2026WHNK Rijeka (A) 1–0 Β· 26/09/2026LBayern MΓΌnchen (A) 0–7 Β· 18/09/2026LFC Schalke 04 (H) 1–3 Β· 11/09/2026LBayer Leverkusen (A) 0–4 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)3.40
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)0.82
xG against (recent avg)1.42
Elo strength rating1420
Players out8
FC AugsburgUnion Berlin
Goals scored (season avg)
2.60
1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.60
3.40
Win streak (best this season)
2
0
xG for (recent avg)
1.05
0.82
xG against (recent avg)
1.37
1.42
Elo strength rating
1544
1420
Players out
9
8

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

FC Augsburg

Winless 4
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Union Berlin

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Bundesliga

FC Augsburg

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Union Berlin

2nd worst defence (3.40 conceded/game)

Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

FC Augsburg at home Β· Union Berlin away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

FC Augsburg (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–0L
W 1
D 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)2.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Union Berlin (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–2L
L 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)5.50
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
FC Augsburg (home)Union Berlin (away)
W 1
D 2
L 2
Played
3
2
Goals scored (avg)
2.30
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
5.50
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
10.6%
2–0
9.7%
2–1
7.7%
3–0
5.4%
3–1
4.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

FC Augsburg 3 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Union Berlin 4 wins Β· avg 2.2 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

3
3
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
16 May 2026 Union Berlin 4–0 FC Augsburg Bundesliga
15 Jan 2026 FC Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin Bundesliga
17 May 2025 FC Augsburg 1–2 Union Berlin Bundesliga
15 Jan 2025 Union Berlin 0–2 FC Augsburg Bundesliga
12 Apr 2024 FC Augsburg 2–0 Union Berlin Bundesliga
25 Nov 2023 Union Berlin 1–1 FC Augsburg Bundesliga
06 May 2023 FC Augsburg 1–0 Union Berlin Bundesliga
07 Jan 2023 FC Augsburg 0–1 Union Berlin Friendlies Clubs
07 Jan 2023 Union Berlin 1–0 FC Augsburg Friendlies Clubs
09 Nov 2022 Union Berlin 2–2 FC Augsburg Bundesliga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

FC Augsburg

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Bayern MΓΌnchen Home 2–2 D
02/10 Hertha BSC Home 2–2 D
19/09 Werder Bremen Away 2–3 L
12/09 Bayer Leverkusen Home 2–2 D
06/09 Eintracht Frankfurt Away 4–1 W

Union Berlin

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 SV Elversberg Home 1–0 W
26/09 HNK Rijeka Away 1–0 W
18/09 Bayern MΓΌnchen Away 0–7 L
11/09 FC Schalke 04 Home 1–3 L
05/09 Bayer Leverkusen Away 0–4 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Bundesliga

FC Augsburg #6 Β· 8 pts β€”  Union Berlin #16 Β· 4 pts

FC Augsburg

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–1L
W 2
D 2
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)2.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards8
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.05
xG against (avg)1.37
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Union Berlin

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–3L
W 1
D 1
L 3
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)3.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Yellow cards12
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.82
xG against (avg)1.42
Corners for (avg)3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
FC AugsburgUnion Berlin
W 2
D 2
L 1
W 1
D 1
L 3
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
2.60
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.60
3.40
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
0
2
Yellow cards
8
12
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.05
0.82
xG against (avg)
1.37
1.42
Corners for (avg)
4.20
3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

FC Augsburg

1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
3
scored conceded

Union Berlin

3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
2
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

FC Augsburg

  • ❌ T. Breithaupt β€” Injury
  • ❌ S. Mounie β€” Injury
  • ❌ K. Jakic β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Kade β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ F. Sakar β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ S. Suso β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ N. Banks β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ T. Schnitzer β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Claude-Maurice β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❓ J. Bah (doubtful) β€” Calf Injury

Union Berlin

  • ❌ O. Burke β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ M. Friedrich β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Ilic β€” Illness
  • ❌ A. Markgraf β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Nsoki β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ F. Ronnow β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ K. Imeri β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ J. Juranovic β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❓ E. Latte Lath (doubtful) β€” Inactive

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