Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Group E - 11 • Porta Elisa • ☁️ 15.2°C, 7 km/h, 0.2mm overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 55.9% | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | Current price not available | 84.7% | — |
| BTTS | No | Current price not available | 61.8% · Yes 38.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Current price not available | 64.2% · Over 35.8% | — |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | Current price not available | 16.4% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Lucchese · Home
Lucchese have scored 11 goals across their last five matches but won only once, with both home games in that run ending level at 1-1 and 2-2. Their model expected goals of 1.48 for this fixture is the higher of the two sides.
San Donato Tavarnelle · Away
San Donato Tavarnelle have scored just 4 goals in five matches, yet two 1-0 home wins and two clean sheets show they can keep games tight. They failed to score in only one of those five.
Lucchese edge a tight H2H
The latest head-to-head, on 31 Jan 2023, finished 0-0, while the earlier meeting went 0-2 to Lucchese. San Donato Tavarnelle's recent matches produced only 4 goals for and 5 against, and Lucchese's five games averaged more than four goals combined, so the scoring profiles differ sharply. The 1-0 correct score and Under 2.5 lean fit a low-scoring home edge rather than an open game. The evidence supports Lucchese win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Lucchese 1.48 – 0.65 San Donato Tavarnelle · expected total 2.13
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Lucchese
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Lucchese
San Donato Tavarnelle
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie D - Girone E
Lucchese
San Donato Tavarnelle
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 18 Serie D - Girone E teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Lucchese at home · San Donato Tavarnelle away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Lucchese (home)
San Donato Tavarnelle (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Lucchese 1 win · 1 draw · San Donato Tavarnelle 0 wins · avg 1 goals · BTTS in 0 of 2
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2023 | Lucchese | 0–0 | San Donato Tavarnelle | Serie C - Girone B |
| 02 Oct 2022 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 0–2 | Lucchese | Serie C - Girone B |
📈 Recent Form
Lucchese
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Terranuova Traiana | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 25/10 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 18/10 | Sasso Marconi Zola | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 11/10 | Ternana | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 04/10 | Grassina | Away | 6–3 | W |
| 27/09 | Robur Siena | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 20/09 | Rondinella | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 16/09 | Progresso | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Seravezza | Away | 0–5 | L |
| 06/09 | Montevarchi Calcio | Home | 2–1 | W |
San Donato Tavarnelle
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Montevarchi Calcio | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 25/10 | Scandicci | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 18/10 | Tau Altopascio | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 11/10 | Prato | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 04/10 | Mezzolara | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 27/09 | Flaminia | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Gavorrano | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 16/09 | Terranuova Traiana | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 13/09 | Sasso Marconi Zola | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 06/09 | Seravezza | Home | 2–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie D - Girone E
Lucchese #10 · 15 pts · San Donato Tavarnelle #11 · 14 pts
Lucchese
San Donato Tavarnelle
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Lucchese
San Donato Tavarnelle
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Serie D - Girone E predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws