Predictions → Italy Serie D - Girone E

Montevarchi Calcio vs Sasso Marconi Zola

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Group E - 11 • ☁️ 15.7°C, 5 km/h overcast

No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 03 Nov 2026 10:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Home Current price not available47.5% —
Double Chance 1X Current price not available75% —
BTTS No Current price not available46.1% · Yes 53.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Current price not available50.1% · Over 49.9% —
Correct Score 1-0 Current price not available9.8% —

🧠 Match Preview

Model view

Model 1X2 split: Montevarchi Calcio 47.5% · Draw 27.5% · Sasso Marconi Zola 25.0%. Selected outcome: Montevarchi Calcio win.

Goals

Model expected goals: Montevarchi Calcio 1.58, Sasso Marconi Zola 1.09, expected total 2.67.

Price check

No current price is available, so model EV cannot be calculated.

Form / H2H

Montevarchi Calcio: L-W-W-L-L in their last five matches.
Sasso Marconi Zola: W-L-L-W-D in their last five matches.
Historical form, not a probability for the next match.

Limitations

Lineups, injuries and late team news can change the outlook. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Montevarchi Calcio

Form (last 5)
LWWLL
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Best league winning streak this season2
Elo strength rating1530

Sasso Marconi Zola

Form (last 5)
WLLWD
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Best league winning streak this season1
Elo strength rating1386
Montevarchi CalcioSasso Marconi Zola
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
1.50
Best league winning streak this season
2
1
Elo strength rating
1530
1386

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Montevarchi Calcio

BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored a goal
4/6
No goals conceded
3/6

Sasso Marconi Zola

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie D - Girone E

Montevarchi Calcio

2nd worst BTTS rate (17%, last 6)

Sasso Marconi Zola

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 18 Serie D - Girone E teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Montevarchi Calcio at home · Sasso Marconi Zola away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Montevarchi Calcio (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–1L
W 3
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1

Sasso Marconi Zola (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–2L
W 1
D 2
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Montevarchi Calcio (home)Sasso Marconi Zola (away)
W 3
L 1
W 1
D 2
L 2
Played
4
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
0.50
1.80
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
1
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

1–0
9.76%
2–1
9.44%
2–0
8.67%
3–1
4.98%
3–0
4.57%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

📈 Recent Form

Montevarchi Calcio

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01/11 San Donato Tavarnelle Away 0–1 L
25/10 Grassina Home 1–0 W
18/10 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano Away 3–0 W
11/10 Rondinella Home 0–1 L
04/10 Ternana Away 1–4 L
27/09 Progresso Home 2–0 W
20/09 Robur Siena Away 0–3 L
16/09 Seravezza Away 1–1 D
12/09 Tau Altopascio Home 4–1 W
06/09 Lucchese Away 1–2 L

Sasso Marconi Zola

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01/11 Progresso Home 4–0 W
28/10 Piacenza Away 0–2 L
25/10 Tau Altopascio Away 1–2 L
18/10 Lucchese Home 2–0 W
11/10 Mezzolara Away 2–2 D
07/10 Cittadella Vis Modena Home 1–0 W
04/10 Scandicci Home 0–2 L
27/09 Gavorrano Away 1–2 L
20/09 Prato Home 0–1 L
16/09 Flaminia Away 2–2 D

📊 Season Comparison: Serie D - Girone E

Montevarchi Calcio #12 · 13 pts ·  Sasso Marconi Zola #13 · 11 pts

Montevarchi Calcio

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–1D–5L
W 4
D 1
L 5
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3
Yellow cards0
Red cards1
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Sasso Marconi Zola

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–5L
W 3
D 2
L 5
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Yellow cards0
Red cards2
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Montevarchi CalcioSasso Marconi Zola
W 4
D 1
L 5
W 3
D 2
L 5
Played
10
10
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.50
Clean sheets
3
2
Failed to score
3
2
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
1
2
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Montevarchi Calcio

0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
6
76-90
2
scored conceded

Sasso Marconi Zola

3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
6
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Serie D - Girone E predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws