Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Group G - 11 • ⛅ 22.3°C, 7 km/h partly cloudy
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw | Current price not available | 25.7% | — |
| Double Chance | X2 | Current price not available | 66.3% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 64% · No 36% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Current price not available | 38.8% · Over 61.2% | — |
| Correct Score | 1-1 | Current price not available | 11.6% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Sarrabus Ogliastra · Home
Sarrabus Ogliastra have won just once in their last five, with the 3-0 home win over Gelbison the outlier. They failed to score in three of those five matches, including the 0-0 home draw with Afragolese.
Paganese · Away
Paganese have also won once in five, but their 1-1 home draw with Ossese is the relevant recent marker. They failed to score only once in that run and lost three away matches by single-goal margins.
H2H points to a tight draw
The latest head-to-head, on 9 Mar 2025, finished 0-3 to Paganese, and the earlier meeting was 4-1. Both teams arrive with identical recent records of one win, one draw and three losses, and Sarrabus Ogliastra failed to score in three of their last five. The model expected goals of 1.5 for Sarrabus Ogliastra and 1.66 for Paganese sit close together, supporting a balanced contest. The evidence supports Draw.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Sarrabus Ogliastra 1.50 – 1.66 Paganese · expected total 3.17
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Paganese
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie D - Girone G
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Paganese
Rank among 18 Serie D - Girone G teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Sarrabus Ogliastra at home · Paganese away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Sarrabus Ogliastra (home)
Paganese (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Paganese 4 wins · 0 draws · Sarrabus Ogliastra 0 wins · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 2 of 4
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar 2025 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 0–3 | Paganese | Serie D - Girone G |
| 01 Nov 2024 | Paganese | 4–1 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | Serie D - Girone G |
| 06 Apr 2023 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 0–1 | Paganese | Serie D - Girone G |
| 26 Nov 2022 | Paganese | 2–1 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | Serie D - Girone G |
📈 Recent Form
Sarrabus Ogliastra
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Sarnese | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 25/10 | Gelbison | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 18/10 | Trastevere | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 11/10 | Afragolese | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 07/10 | Latte Dolce | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 04/10 | Latte Dolce | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 27/09 | Unipomezia | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 20/09 | Albalonga | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 16/09 | Certosa V. Campagnano | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 13/09 | Anzio | Away | 1–0 | W |
Paganese
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Ossese | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 25/10 | Città di Anagni | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 18/10 | Venafro | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 11/10 | Budoni | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 04/10 | Sarnese | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 27/09 | Gelbison | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 20/09 | Trastevere | Away | 6–1 | W |
| 16/09 | Afragolese | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 12/09 | Latte Dolce | Away | 3–2 | W |
| 06/09 | Unipomezia | Home | 2–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie D - Girone G
Sarrabus Ogliastra #16 · 9 pts · Paganese #8 · 14 pts
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Paganese
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Paganese
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Serie D - Girone G predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws