Ragusa vs CastrumFavara
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 15 Nov 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Group I - 12 • ☀️ 19°C, 6 km/h clear
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw | Current price not available | 34.8% | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | Current price not available | 68.7% | — |
| BTTS | No | Current price not available | 61.8% · Yes 38.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Current price not available | 71.2% · Over 28.8% | — |
| Correct Score | 0-0 | Current price not available | 16.8% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Ragusa · Home
Ragusa have taken just one point from their last five matches, a 1-1 home draw with Nissa, and failed to score only once in that run. Their most recent meeting with CastrumFavara was a 2-1 home win on 22 Feb 2026.
CastrumFavara · Away
CastrumFavara have one win in five, a 3-2 home success over Igea Virtus, and failed to score twice in that sequence. They won the earlier away meeting at Ragusa 0-1 and drew 2-2 at home with Reggina.
Tight H2H Points To Draw
The latest head-to-head was a 2-1 Ragusa home win on 22 Feb 2026, but the two prior meetings both went CastrumFavara's way, including 0-1 at Ragusa. Neither side keeps clean sheets: Ragusa have 0 in five and CastrumFavara 0 in five, with 13 and 12 goals conceded respectively. The model gives Ragusa 0.96 expected goals against 0.91 for CastrumFavara, a near-even split that fits a low-scoring stalemate. The evidence supports Draw.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:46 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Ragusa 0.96 – 0.91 CastrumFavara · expected total 1.87
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Ragusa
CastrumFavara
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie D - Girone I
Ragusa
CastrumFavara
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 18 Serie D - Girone I teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Ragusa at home · CastrumFavara away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Ragusa (home)
CastrumFavara (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
CastrumFavara 2 wins · 2 draws · Ragusa 1 win · avg 2 goals · BTTS in 3 of 5
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2026 | Ragusa | 2–1 | CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
| 19 Oct 2025 | CastrumFavara | 2–0 | Ragusa | Serie D - Girone I |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Ragusa | 0–1 | CastrumFavara | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| 17 Apr 2025 | CastrumFavara | 1–1 | Ragusa | Serie D - Girone I |
| 08 Dec 2024 | Ragusa | 1–1 | CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
📈 Recent Form
Ragusa
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Reggina | Away | 2–5 | L |
| 25/10 | Vibonese | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 18/10 | Igea Virtus | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 11/10 | Nissa | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 04/10 | Calcio Avola | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 27/09 | Trapani 1905 | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 20/09 | Licata | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 16/09 | Vigor Lamezia | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 13/09 | Milazzo | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 06/09 | Modica | Home | 2–2 | D |
CastrumFavara
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Nissa | Away | 1–5 | L |
| 28/10 | Reggina | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 18/10 | Trapani 1905 | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 11/10 | Igea Virtus | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 04/10 | Vigor Lamezia | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 27/09 | Calcio Avola | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 20/09 | Modica | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 16/09 | Licata | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 13/09 | Gela | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 06/09 | Milazzo | Home | 3–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie D - Girone I
Ragusa #17 · 3 pts · CastrumFavara #13 · 8 pts
Ragusa
CastrumFavara
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Ragusa
CastrumFavara
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Serie D - Girone I predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws