Predictions β†’ Netherlands Eredivisie

Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 12:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 9 β€’ Kooi Stadion β€’ β›… 11.2Β°C, 19 km/h partly cloudy

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 50.1% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 40% Β· Edge +10.4 pp
Best odds 2.50 Bet365 2.50BetVictor 2.451xBet 2.42
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 3.6% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 1.39 β†’ 1.44 β–²4% 88% 66.6% 1.44 Dafabet 71.1% -4.5 pp
Double Chance 12 68% 67.6% 1.18 Bet365 83.1% -15.5 pp
BTTS No 81% 48.7% 2.50 Bet365 38.3% +10.4 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47.5% 1.38 Betano 69.6% -22.1 pp
Correct Score 0-1 64% 8% 12.00 Bet365 4.3% +3.7 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.6 exp.) Over 9.5 61% 52.1% 1.75 Betano 53.3% -1.2 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Cambuur 1.13 – 1.33 AZ Alkmaar Β· expected total 2.46

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Cambuur host AZ Alkmaar at the Kooi Stadion on Sunday with the two sides separated by a wide gap in the Eredivisie table. Cambuur sit 12th on 8 points from 8 games, while AZ are 3rd on 19 points, so the visitors arrive as clear favourites and the model agrees, pricing an away win at 66.6% with confidence of 88 and odds of 1.44.

The form lines are mixed rather than dominant: Cambuur's last five read WDWDL, AZ's LWLDW. The underlying numbers favour the away side more convincingly. AZ's recent expected goals stand at 1.97 against Cambuur's 1.3, and the match lambdas of 1.1295 for the hosts and 1.3326 for AZ point to a tight but away-leaning contest. Both squads are depleted, with Cambuur missing five players and AZ listing nine absentees, including J. Clasie and T. Parrott.

Beyond the outright, the double chance covering 1 and 2 lands at 67.6%. Both teams to score is tipped No at 48.7% with odds of 2.5, while Over 2.5 goals carries 47.5% at 1.38. The correct-score model likes 0-1 at 10.08%, ahead of 1-2 at 8.56% and 0-2 at 7.57%. Corners offer interest: Over 9.5 is tipped at 52.1% with an expected 9.6.

The honest caveat is that AZ's long injury list and modest recent form (LWLDW) mean the 1.44 price leaves little margin for error, and the goals markets sit close to even, so the value may hide in the corner line rather than the result.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Cambuur

Form (last 5)
WPEC Zwolle (A) 1–0 Β· 11/10/2026DADO Den Haag (A) 1–1 Β· 19/09/2026WNEC Nijmegen (H) 3–0 Β· 12/09/2026DTelstar (A) 2–2 Β· 06/09/2026LTwente (H) 1–4 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)2.40
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.30
xG against (recent avg)1.84
Elo strength rating1404
Players out5

AZ Alkmaar

Form (last 5)
LFeyenoord (A) 0–2 Β· 10/10/2026WTelstar (H) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026LSunderland (A) 0–1 Β· 16/09/2026DWillem II (H) 1–1 Β· 11/09/2026WHeerenveen (A) 3–2 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)1.97
xG against (recent avg)1.32
Elo strength rating1577
Players out9
CambuurAZ Alkmaar
Goals scored (season avg)
1.40
2.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.40
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
5
xG for (recent avg)
1.30
1.97
xG against (recent avg)
1.84
1.32
Elo strength rating
1404
1577
Players out
5
9

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Cambuur

Unbeaten 4
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

AZ Alkmaar

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Eredivisie

Cambuur

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

AZ Alkmaar

2nd best defence (1.00 conceded/game) Worst Over 2.5 rate (33%) 2nd best clean sheets (3)

Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Cambuur at home Β· AZ Alkmaar away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Cambuur (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–3L
W 1
L 3
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)3.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1

AZ Alkmaar (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–1L
W 3
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Cambuur (home)AZ Alkmaar (away)
W 1
L 3
W 3
L 1
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
2.30
Goals conceded (avg)
3.30
1.30
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
8%
1–2
6.8%
0–2
6%
1–3
3%
0–3
2.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

AZ Alkmaar 6 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Cambuur 0 wins Β· avg 2.1 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 9

6
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
25 Feb 2023 AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Cambuur Eredivisie
28 Aug 2022 Cambuur 0–1 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
22 Jan 2022 AZ Alkmaar 0–0 Cambuur Eredivisie
03 Oct 2021 Cambuur 1–3 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
27 Jan 2016 AZ Alkmaar 3–1 Cambuur Eredivisie
17 Oct 2015 Cambuur 1–1 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
21 Mar 2015 AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Cambuur Eredivisie
29 Nov 2014 Cambuur 0–2 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
30 Mar 2014 Cambuur 0–0 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Cambuur

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 PEC Zwolle Away 1–0 W
19/09 ADO Den Haag Away 1–1 D
12/09 NEC Nijmegen Home 3–0 W
06/09 Telstar Away 2–2 D
30/08 Twente Home 1–4 L

AZ Alkmaar

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Feyenoord Away 0–2 L
20/09 Telstar Home 1–0 W
16/09 Sunderland Away 0–1 L
11/09 Willem II Home 1–1 D
06/09 Heerenveen Away 3–2 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Eredivisie

Cambuur #12 Β· 8 pts β€”  AZ Alkmaar #3 Β· 19 pts

Cambuur

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–4L
W 2
D 2
L 4
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)2.40
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
Yellow cards15
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.30
xG against (avg)1.84
Corners for (avg)2.90
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

AZ Alkmaar

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–1D–1L
W 6
D 1
L 1
Played8
Goals scored (avg)2.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Yellow cards9
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.97
xG against (avg)1.32
Corners for (avg)6.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
CambuurAZ Alkmaar
W 2
D 2
L 4
W 6
D 1
L 1
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
2.30
Goals conceded (avg)
2.40
1.00
Clean sheets
2
3
Failed to score
1
1
Yellow cards
15
9
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.30
1.97
xG against (avg)
1.84
1.32
Corners for (avg)
2.90
6.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Cambuur

2
0-15
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
4
scored conceded

AZ Alkmaar

1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Cambuur

  • ❌ W. Kooistra β€” Injury
  • ❌ D. Visser β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. van de Pavert β€” Personal Reasons
  • ❌ W. Asselman β€” Inactive
  • ❌ N. Binder β€” Injury

AZ Alkmaar

  • ❌ J. Clasie β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Hornkamp β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ D. Kasius β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ A. Natali β€” Inactive
  • ❌ R. Robbemond β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Sin β€” Injury
  • ❌ T. Parrott β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Resink β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ K. Smit β€” Groin Injury

More: Eredivisie predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws