Predictions β†’ Netherlands Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior

Next match: Sun, 25 Oct 2026 β€’ 11:15 UTC+3 β€’ Round 10 β€’ Fortuna Sittard Stadion β€’ ☁️ 10.9Β°C, 6 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 79% 43.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 12 70% 70.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 84% 54.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83% 52.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8 exp.) Under 9.5 65% 55.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Fortuna Sittard 1.63 – 1.25 Excelsior Β· expected total 2.88

🧠 Match Preview

Fortuna Sittard host Excelsior on Sunday afternoon sitting seventh in the Eredivisie on 14 points from 8 games, two places and three points clear of their ninth-placed visitors. The stakes are modest but real: a home win keeps Fortuna in the upper half, while Excelsior can close the gap with an away result.

The model leans home. Fortuna's recent form reads DWWLW against Excelsior's LDLDW, and the goal expectation splits 1.6331 to 1.2487 in the hosts' favour. Interestingly, the recent xG trend runs the other way, with Fortuna at 0.85 and Excelsior at 1.14, a warning that the table and form may flatter the home side. Fortuna's injury list is long, featuring R. Bayram, I. Marquez, S. Simons, K. Peterson, O. Romeny, S. Wylin, Y. Oukili and J. Dahlhaus, while Excelsior are without K. Bos and N. Naujoks. The head-to-head record is lively: Fortuna won 2-1 in February 2026 and 5-2 in March 2024, with Excelsior taking a 1-0 in October 2025.

The headline tip is a home win at 43.1 percent with confidence 79, and the double chance covering 1 and 2 lands at 70.5 percent. Both teams to score is rated 54.1 percent, Over 2.5 goals 52.9 percent, and the correct-score model favours 2-1 at 7.3 percent, ahead of 1-0 at 8.02 and 2-0 at 7.49. Corners look low, with an expected 8 and Under 9.5 at 55.6 percent. Value likely hides in the double chance and the goals markets rather than the outright, given the home win probability sits below half.

The honest caveat: Fortuna's recent xG of 0.85 is well below their season scoring expectation, and with eight players unavailable, the 43.1 percent home win may be more fragile than the form line suggests.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Fortuna Sittard

Form (last 5)
DTwente (H) 1–1 Β· 10/10/2026WGenk (A) 2–1 Β· 03/10/2026WWillem II (A) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026LAjax (H) 1–5 Β· 12/09/2026WADO Den Haag (A) 3–2 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.85
xG against (recent avg)2.15
Elo strength rating1488
Players out8

Excelsior

Form (last 5)
LGroningen (H) 1–5 Β· 11/10/2026DAjax (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026LUtrecht (H) 1–2 Β· 13/09/2026DNEC Nijmegen (A) 2–2 Β· 08/09/2026WWillem II (A) 3–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.14
xG against (recent avg)1.60
Elo strength rating1426
Players out2
Fortuna SittardExcelsior
Goals scored (season avg)
1.80
2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.90
1.80
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.85
1.14
xG against (recent avg)
2.15
1.60
Elo strength rating
1488
1426
Players out
8
2

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Fortuna Sittard

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Excelsior

Winless 4
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Excelsior

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Fortuna Sittard at home Β· Excelsior away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Fortuna Sittard (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–2L
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1

Excelsior (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–0L
W 2
D 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Fortuna Sittard (home)Excelsior (away)
W 1
D 1
L 2
W 2
D 2
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
2.80
Goals conceded (avg)
2.30
1.00
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
1
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.3%
1–0
6.3%
2–0
5.8%
3–1
4%
3–0
3.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Excelsior 2 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Fortuna Sittard 4 wins Β· avg 3.3 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 8

2
2
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
20 Feb 2026 Fortuna Sittard 2–1 Excelsior Eredivisie
19 Oct 2025 Excelsior 1–0 Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie
03 Mar 2024 Fortuna Sittard 5–2 Excelsior Eredivisie
26 Aug 2023 Excelsior 2–2 Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie
21 May 2023 Excelsior 3–0 Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie
17 Sep 2022 Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Excelsior Eredivisie
10 Feb 2019 Fortuna Sittard 4–1 Excelsior Eredivisie
11 Aug 2018 Excelsior 1–1 Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Fortuna Sittard

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Twente Home 1–1 D
03/10 Genk Away 2–1 W
19/09 Willem II Away 1–0 W
12/09 Ajax Home 1–5 L
06/09 ADO Den Haag Away 3–2 W

Excelsior

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Groningen Home 1–5 L
19/09 Ajax Away 2–2 D
13/09 Utrecht Home 1–2 L
08/09 NEC Nijmegen Away 2–2 D
05/09 Willem II Away 3–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard #7 Β· 14 pts β€”  Excelsior #9 Β· 11 pts

Fortuna Sittard

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–2L
W 4
D 2
L 2
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Yellow cards11
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.85
xG against (avg)2.15
Corners for (avg)2.00
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Excelsior

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–3L
W 3
D 2
L 3
Played8
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards11
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.14
xG against (avg)1.60
Corners for (avg)3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Fortuna SittardExcelsior
W 4
D 2
L 2
W 3
D 2
L 3
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.90
1.80
Clean sheets
1
2
Failed to score
1
0
Yellow cards
11
11
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
0.85
1.14
xG against (avg)
2.15
1.60
Corners for (avg)
2.00
3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Fortuna Sittard

0-15
4
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
4
scored conceded

Excelsior

3
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
7
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Fortuna Sittard

  • ❌ R. Bayram β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ I. Marquez β€” Injury
  • ❌ S. Simons β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ K. Peterson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ O. Romeny β€” Red Card
  • ❌ S. Wylin β€” Injury
  • ❌ Y. Oukili β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ J. Dahlhaus β€” Inactive

Excelsior

  • ❌ K. Bos β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ N. Naujoks β€” Inactive

More: Eredivisie predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws