Predictions → Netherlands Eredivisie

Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 22:00 UTC+3 • Round 12 • Stadion Galgenwaard • ☁️ 7.1°C, 9 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Corners O/U 9.5: Under 9.5
Model probability 56.3% · Market implied at best price ≈ 47.6% · EV at shown price +18.2%
Best odds 2.10 · Bet365 Betano 2.10

Snapshotted at publish: Under 9.5 at 2.10 (56.3%, Model EV +18.2%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.

Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Home 2.37 → 2.4 ▲1% Pinnacle2.4043.5% +4.4%
Double Chance 12 Bet3651.2875.5% -3.4%
BTTS Yes Betano1.4561% · No 39% -11.6%
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Pinnacle1.5361.6% · Under 38.4% -5.8%
Correct Score 2-1 Betano9.759.6% -6.4%
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.7 exp.) Under 9.5 Bet3652.1056.3% · Over 43.7% +18.2%

🧠 Match Preview

Utrecht · Home

Utrecht's recent home form offers a realistic base for the published pick: they beat Willem II 3-1 and drew 1-1 with PEC Zwolle in their last two home matches. Their model expected goals of 1.80 is the higher of the two forecasts for this fixture.

NEC Nijmegen · Away

NEC Nijmegen have drawn three of their last five, including 2-2 with Groningen and 2-2 with Fortuna Sittard, and failed to score in the 0-1 loss at Heerenveen. Their recent xG for of 1.38 over up to five recent matches with recorded statistics sits below Utrecht's forecast.

Utrecht's Home Edge Holds

The latest head-to-head is the telling detail: Utrecht won 1-3 away at NEC Nijmegen on 11 Feb 2026, and they also took the earlier home meeting 1-0. Utrecht's five-match record shows 8 goals scored and no clean sheets, while NEC Nijmegen have drawn three of five and scored 9. The evidence supports Utrecht win.

Published 02 Nov 2026 04:51 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Utrecht 1.80 – 1.27 NEC Nijmegen · expected total 3.07

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Utrecht

Form (last 5)
LDWWL
Goals scored (season avg)1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)2.70
Best league winning streak this season4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.21
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.82
Elo strength rating1537
Players out8

NEC Nijmegen

Form (last 5)
LDWDD
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Best league winning streak this season4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.38
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.95
Elo strength rating1563
Players out13
UtrechtNEC Nijmegen
Goals scored (season avg)
1.70
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.70
1.70
Best league winning streak this season
4
4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.21
1.38
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.82
1.95
Elo strength rating
1537
1563
Players out
8
13

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Utrecht

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
0/6

NEC Nijmegen

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Eredivisie

Utrecht

2nd worst defence (2.70 conceded/game, season) Best BTTS rate (83%, last 6) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%, last 6)

NEC Nijmegen

Best BTTS rate (83%, last 6)

Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Utrecht at home · NEC Nijmegen away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Utrecht (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–2L
W 1
D 2
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)3.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

NEC Nijmegen (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–2L
W 2
D 1
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Utrecht (home)NEC Nijmegen (away)
W 1
D 2
L 2
W 2
D 1
L 2
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
3.00
1.40
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

2–1
9.59%
2–0
7.58%
1–0
7.35%
3–1
5.76%
3–0
4.55%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

NEC Nijmegen 2 wins · 2 draws · Utrecht 6 wins · avg 2.1 goals · BTTS in 3 of 10

2
2
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
11 Feb 2026 NEC Nijmegen 1–3 Utrecht Eredivisie
02 Nov 2025 Utrecht 1–0 NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie
15 Mar 2025 Utrecht 0–1 NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie
24 Nov 2024 NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Utrecht Eredivisie
17 Mar 2024 Utrecht 1–0 NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie
23 Sep 2023 NEC Nijmegen 3–0 Utrecht Eredivisie
12 Mar 2023 NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Utrecht Eredivisie
16 Sep 2022 Utrecht 0–0 NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie
29 Apr 2022 Utrecht 1–0 NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie
22 Sep 2021 NEC Nijmegen 0–3 Utrecht Eredivisie

📈 Recent Form

Utrecht

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01/11 Telstar Away 2–4 L
24/10 PEC Zwolle Home 1–1 D
18/10 Twente Away 2–1 W
11/10 Willem II Home 3–1 W
20/09 Feyenoord Away 0–5 L
13/09 Excelsior Away 2–1 W
08/09 GO Ahead Eagles Home 3–3 D
30/08 PSV Eindhoven Home 1–6 L
22/08 Sparta Rotterdam Away 3–3 D
15/08 AZ Alkmaar Home 1–4 L

NEC Nijmegen

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
31/10 Heerenveen Away 0–1 L
25/10 Groningen Home 2–2 D
22/10 Dinamo Zagreb Away 4–2 W
18/10 Fortuna Sittard Home 2–2 D
15/10 Levski Sofia Home 1–1 D
10/10 Ajax Away 1–1 D
20/09 GO Ahead Eagles Home 1–1 D
17/09 Juventus Away 0–5 L
12/09 Cambuur Away 0–3 L
08/09 Excelsior Home 2–2 D

📊 Season Comparison: Eredivisie

Utrecht #12 · 12 pts ·  NEC Nijmegen #13 · 11 pts

Utrecht

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–3D–5L
W 3
D 3
L 5
Played11
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)2.70
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards21
Red cards0
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.21
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.82
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

NEC Nijmegen

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–5D–4L
W 2
D 5
L 4
Played11
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Yellow cards16
Red cards0
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.38
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.95
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)3/1
UtrechtNEC Nijmegen
W 3
D 3
L 5
W 2
D 5
L 4
Played
11
11
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
2.70
1.70
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
1
2
Yellow cards
21
16
Red cards
0
0
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.21
1.38
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.82
1.95
Corners for (avg)
4.20
4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
3/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Utrecht

4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
7
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
7
76-90
7
scored conceded

NEC Nijmegen

4
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Utrecht

  • ❌ O. Agougil: Injury
  • ❌ A. Engwanda: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ V. Jensen: Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Jonathans: Knee Injury
  • ❌ N. Ohio: Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. van Ommeren: Back Injury
  • ❌ N. Vesterlund: Injury
  • ❌ A. Stepanov: Ankle Injury

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): M. Broholm, K. Paredes, J. van Overeem, V. Barkas; not counted as confirmed absences.

NEC Nijmegen

  • ❌ Y. Moslih: Injury
  • ❌ K. Ogawa: Head Injury
  • ❌ P. Schuurs: Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Ouaissa: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ P. Sandler: Injury
  • ❌ A. Kaplan: Knee Injury
  • ❌ D. Fonville: Injury
  • ❌ B. Linssen: Injury
  • ❌ C. Bischoff: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ G. Crettaz: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ B. Nuytinck: Ankle Injury
  • ❌ D. Tadic: Calf Injury
  • ❌ A. Thomas: Suspended (Suspended)

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): D. Nejasmic, E. Mor, D. Geiger, K. Sierhuis; not counted as confirmed absences.

More: Eredivisie predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws